Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Starting Pitchers Who Will Underperform Their 2015 ADP: Rankings Analysis

What Appears In This Article? hide

Below, you’ll find three starting pitchers that I’ve identified as potential underperformers based on ADP. As a frame of reference, I've provided the RotoBaller consensus ranking for each player as well.

Keep in mind that this isn’t to say you should necessarily avoid drafting these three players. Rather, it's a warning to make sure that other more worthy candidates are already off the board before you pull the trigger.

After all, remember that in 2014, the difference between a championship and second place could well have been selecting Max Scherzer over Cliff Lee.


Three Overvalued Starting Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner (RotoBaller Rank: 8.6)

Stop me if I sound like a broken record on Bumgarner. The fact is that Bumgarner threw a ton of high leverage innings last year, while most of his colleagues were at home getting ready for 2015. If you were fielding a real baseball team, he might be one of the top five guys you'd want, because he’s a workhorse. But this is fantasy baseball, and having a guy throwing on short rest through all of October is a big red flag. Couple that with everyone’s memory of Bumgarner as an unhittable freak for 30 days, and you've got a recipe for an overrated pitcher. The pundits at RotoBaller have him ranked conservatively (as high as five and as low as fifteen) compared to elsewhere, which brought his composite ranking to 8.6. I think that’s reasonable, but you might run into trouble if you follow the rankers that have him near fourth or fifth.

Ultimately, here’s what it comes to for me: remember 2012, when Johan Santana threw 134 pitches to complete his no-hitter? People said, “Wow, you probably shouldn’t do that.” Well, his season (and likely his career) ended two months later. Last year, Bumgarner threw 52.2 innings (the most ever) in the postseason, and while his career won’t be over in two months, it's probably not the way to ensure peak performance in the following season.  Be aware.


Hisashi Iwakuma (Rotoballer Rank: 19.1)

File this under the “gut feeling” index. Since 2013, Iwakuma has pleasantly surprised owners– in 2013, he sported a very fortunate 2.66 ERA with a respectable 7.6 strikeout rate, and he followed that up with a moderately unfortunate 3.52 ERA and 7.7 strikeout rate in 2014. Iwakuma also posts one of the best WHIPs in the game with 1.01 in 2013 and 1.05 last year, so what’s not to like?

It really comes down to perception. Iwakuma was an under-the-radar pitcher last year, but he’s getting a lot of love going in to 2015, and I think he’s inched too high in the rankings. Last year, he ranked in the low-to-mid 30s in terms of starting pitchers; this year, I don’t want to take him as a top-20 guy, because I think his ceiling is significantly lower than the guys around him (Cobb, Carrasco, Teheran, Arrieta). On top of that, Iwakuma's age is a red flag (he’ll be 34 on opening day). There's no doubt that pitchers can be very successful past that age, and Iwakuma isn’t one to rely on velocity anyway, but the injury risk becomes increased as the years and inning psile up. Don’t avoid Iwakuma in drafts this year, but make sure the price is right.


Adam Wainwright (RotoBaller Rank: 14.1)

You’ll notice that Wainwright has already began to fall on draft boards after an abdomen injury, but I’d like to say that I was on the “Wainwright = Bust” bandwagon late last year, as his season began to deteriorate in July and August. The truth is that he had a productive September and ended the season in relative stability. The problem, though, is that when you look at his body of work over a full year, you’ll notice a pitcher with an elite name who is lacking the numbers to match.

There are some comparisons to both Bumgarner and Iwakuma here: Wainwright is a guy who has been a workhouse since 2009, and like Bumgarner, threw his fair share of high leverage postseason innings (though never near 52!). Like Iwakuma, Wainwright's 2014 included an acceptable strikeout rate and an elite WHIP. So is he more like Bumgarner or Iwakuma? The answer is somewhere in the middle, but he has the name recognition that will keep him near the elites on draft day. It will be an interesting season for Wainwright, because he started off 2014 guns blazing, before fading out in the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar this year.



Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts


Emiliano Grillo31 mins ago

Continues To Improve Putting
Tony Finau40 mins ago

The Top Pick In Mexico
Erik Jones1 hour ago

Shows Speed At Daytona Despite Disappointing Run
Ross Chastain1 hour ago

Hail Mary Attempt Falls Short
Shohei Ohtani1 hour ago

Wants To Get 50 At-Bats This Spring
PGA2 hours ago

K.H. Lee Slumping Ahead Of Mexico Open
Carson Young2 hours ago

A Potential Contender At Vidanta
Matt Wallace2 hours ago

Seeking PGA Tour Success At Mexico Open
Scott Stallings2 hours ago

In For a Tough Week In Mexico
Michael Rasmussen2 hours ago

Inks Four-Year Extension With Red Wings
John Hunter Nemechek2 hours ago

Scores Career-Best Daytona Finish To Start 2024
Ryan Lindgren2 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brad Keselowski2 hours ago

Promising Daytona Run Ruined By Lap 191 Wreck
Matt Duchene2 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Miro Heiskanen2 hours ago

Back In Action Tuesday
Morgan Rielly3 hours ago

Suspension Upheld
Shea Theodore3 hours ago

Returns To Golden Knights Lineup
Pittsburgh Steelers3 hours ago

Cameron Heyward Undergoes Offseason Surgery
Alex Cobb4 hours ago

Throws Off Mound
Sonny Gray4 hours ago

To Start On Opening Day
Zay Flowers4 hours ago

Baltimore County Police Suspends Investigation Of Zay Flowers
Riley Greene4 hours ago

Faces Live Pitching Tuesday
Tarik Skubal5 hours ago

Throwing Gas In Camp
Amed Rosario5 hours ago

Agrees With Rays On One-Year Deal
Aaron Judge5 hours ago

Likely To Require "Constant Maintenance"
Michael McDowell6 hours ago

Daytona 500 Race Marred By Mechanical Issue
Denny Hamlin6 hours ago

Has One Of Those Days At Daytona
Chase Elliott6 hours ago

Ends Up 14th At Daytona
Kyle Busch6 hours ago

Exceeds DFS Value In The Daytona 500
Sam Stevens6 hours ago

Will Need Better Sunday In Mexico
Greyson Sigg7 hours ago

A Long Shot To Contend In Mexico
Kyle Bradish7 hours ago

Plays Catch Tuesday
J.J. Spaun7 hours ago

May Struggle At Mexico Open
Andrew Benintendi7 hours ago

Dealt With Hand Injury Last Year
Ryan Blaney7 hours ago

Late Wreck Derails Ryan Blaney's Strong Start In Title Defense
Francisco Alvarez7 hours ago

Close To Extension With Mets
Matt McLain7 hours ago

Out 5-7 Days With Oblique Injury
Marquise Brown7 hours ago

Set To Leave In Free Agency
Alexander Björk7 hours ago

Alexander Bjork A Coin Flip To Thrive At Mexico Open
Justin Fields7 hours ago

Mike Tomlin A Big Fan Of Justin Fields
Christopher Bell7 hours ago

Starts Off 2024 With Third-Place Finish At Daytona
Russell Wilson8 hours ago

Not Expected Back In Denver
Matthew Slater8 hours ago

Hangs Up His Cleats
Logan Thompson13 hours ago

Posts First Shutout Versus Sharks
Evan Bouchard13 hours ago

Records Three Assists In Monday's Win
Evander Kane13 hours ago

Lights The Lamp Twice Monday
Nazem Kadri13 hours ago

Picks Up Three Points As Flames Take Down Jets
Jared McCann13 hours ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Mathieu Joseph14 hours ago

Puts Two Pucks Past Lightning
Connor Bedard14 hours ago

Posts New Franchise Record With Three-Point Effort
Trae Young14 hours ago

Remains Committed To Hawks
Christian Braun14 hours ago

Confident Of Playing Better After Break
Kyle Lowry14 hours ago

Saw 76ers As Best Fit For Him
Donte DiVincenzo14 hours ago

On Track To Return Versus Philadelphia
Bojan Bogdanovic14 hours ago

Ready To Rejoin Action Thursday
Isaiah Hartenstein15 hours ago

Expected Back Right After Break
Bradley Beal15 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Hyun Jin Ryu19 hours ago

Reportedly Signs With Former KBO Team
Sean Monahan19 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick In Loss
Jeremy Peña19 hours ago

Jeremy Pena Bringing Quieter Batting Stance To 2024
Matt Chapman19 hours ago

Mariners Have Discussed Pursuing Matt Chapman
Joel Eriksson Ek20 hours ago

Has Career-Best Performance In Wild Victory
J.T. Miller20 hours ago

Posts Four-Point Performance In High-Scoring Loss
William Byron20 hours ago

Wins Daytona 500 As Wrecks Break Out Late
Ilya Samsonov20 hours ago

Extends Winning Streak
Auston Matthews20 hours ago

Totals Two Points In Victory
Troy Terry20 hours ago

Collects Three Points In Victory
Frank Vatrano20 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Isaiah Stewart22 hours ago

Gets Court Date For Assault Charge
Stephen Curry22 hours ago

Doesn't Think He's "Anywhere Close" To Retirement
Nic Claxton22 hours ago

Nets Interested In Re-Signing Nicolas Claxton
Michael Conforto22 hours ago

To Be Everyday Left Fielder
Noah Gragson23 hours ago

Starts Comeback Season With Top-10 At Daytona
AJ Allmendinger23 hours ago

Earns Fourth Straight Daytona 500 Top-10 Finish
Alex Bowman23 hours ago

Narrowly Misses Out On Daytona 500 Victory
Joey Logano23 hours ago

Wrecks Out Of Daytona 500 But Leads Most Laps
Tank Dell23 hours ago

Expects To Be Back For OTAs
Joe Mixon23 hours ago

Could Be A Salary Cap Casualty
Calvin Ridley24 hours ago

Jaguars Plan To Bring Back Calvin Ridley
Cleveland Cavaliers24 hours ago

Pete Nance Signs Deal With Cavaliers
Milwaukee Bucks24 hours ago

Ryan Rollins Signs With Bucks
Brooklyn Nets1 day ago

Kevin Ollie Taking Over As Head Coach Of Nets
Mike Conley1 day ago

Gets Two-Year Extension
David Peralta1 day ago

Cubs Agree To Deal On Monday
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Throws First Bullpen Session
Nolan Arenado1 day ago

Takes Batting Practice Monday
Eloy Jiménez1 day ago

Eloy Jimenez Hopes To Play 150-Plus Games
Andrew Benintendi1 day ago

A Candidate To Hit Leadoff
Brandon Nimmo1 day ago

Harrison Bader To Play Center, Brandon Nimmo In Left
Kirill Kaprizov1 day ago

Racks Up Six Points In 17-Goal Thriller
Tyler Boyd1 day ago

Bengals Expected To Let Tyler Boyd Walk
Philadelphia 76ers1 day ago

76ers Signing Darius Bazley
Deshaun Watson1 day ago

On Track In Rehab From Shoulder Surgery
Brooklyn Nets1 day ago

Nets Fire Jacque Vaughn
Ilia Topuria1 day ago

Becomes The New UFC Featherweight Champion
Alexander Volkanovski1 day ago

Loses Title At UFC 298
Henry Cejudo1 day ago

Merab Dvalishvili Defeats Henry Cejudo By Unanimous Decision At UFC 298
Henry Cejudo1 day ago

Takes Decision Loss
Roman Kopylov1 day ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 298
Jaylen Brown1 day ago

Nets 36 Points In 22 Minutes In All-Star Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 day ago

Logs 23 Points In All-Star Game
Tyrese Haliburton2 days ago

Nails 10 Attempts From Deep In All-Star Game
Scottie Barnes2 days ago

Plays Well In All-Star Debut
Stephen Curry2 days ago

Just Misses A Double-Double In All-Star Game
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Aggressiveness Could Pay Dividends at Daytona
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Searching for First-Ever Top 5 in Daytona 500
Chris Buescher2 days ago

No Worries About Chris Buescher Missing Daytona 500 Practice
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace: 'The Best I've Felt Mentally'
Michael McDowell2 days ago

Avoid Michael McDowell in DFS for Daytona
Jimmie Johnson2 days ago

Sneaks Into Daytona 500 Field Despite Wreck
Anthony Hernandez2 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 298
Geoff Neal2 days ago

Drops Split Decision At UFC 298
MMA2 days ago

Ian Machado Garry Remains Undefeated
Paulo Costa2 days ago

Loses Entertaining Fight At UFC 298
Robert Whittaker2 days ago

Edges Out Competitive Decision At UFC 298
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Steelers Appear To Have Internal Division Over QB Position
Kansas City Chiefs4 days ago

Chiefs Pick Up Chris Jones' Option
Saquon Barkley4 days ago

Giants Considering Letting Saquon Barkley Test Free Agency?
Las Vegas Raiders4 days ago

Raiders In The Market For A QB In 2024
Jimmy Garoppolo4 days ago

Suspended Two Games For PEDs
Alexander Volkanovski4 days ago

Set For Sixth Title Defense At UFC 298
Ilia Topuria4 days ago

Has A Chance To Become The New UFC Featherweight Champion
Henry Cejudo4 days ago

Looking To Return To Win Column
Merab Dvalishvili4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC 298
San Francisco 49ers5 days ago

Dre Greenlaw Has Successful Surgery
Cody White5 days ago

Bears Release Eddie Jackson, Cody Whitehair
Daniel Jones5 days ago

Says Rehab Is Going Well
Rhamondre Stevenson5 days ago

Wants To Be Featured Back
Anthony Hernandez5 days ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC 298
Geoff Neal5 days ago

Gets Rebooked Against Ian Machado Garry At UFC 298
MMA5 days ago

Ian Machado Garry Gets Top-10 Opponent At UFC 298
Paulo Costa5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC 298
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Looking To Return To Win Column At UFC 298
Geno Smith5 days ago

Seahawks Lock In Geno Smith For 2024