Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Value Picks for Best Ball Drafts (2025)

February 26, 2025

Chris' starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball sleepers, values picks for 2025 best ball drafts. His undervalued pitchers with fantasy upside based on ADPs.

Welcome back to our starting pitcher fantasy baseball value picks and sleepers for 2025 best ball leagues. For those who are not familiar, fantasy baseball best ball formats are a fun and easy way to play fantasy baseball, as the commitment is minimal. After drafting your teams, no other team maintenance is required -- no setting lineups, no waiver wire moves and no trades.

One reason that best ball leagues are so popular is you can draft more teams -- after the draft, it requires no management at all. Each week, your best lineup is automatically calculated and set by the computer, meaning no work is needed on your part. This does change the strategy a bit as you need guaranteed plate appearances and innings, as you can't replace injured players with healthy options on the waiver wire.

It is also important to know your league scoring depending on which site you are playing best ball on. Pay attention to your league settings and scoring format and nearly every website scores differently for best ball. Here’s a list of fantasy baseball draft targets for best ball this season.

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Starting Pitcher Value Picks for 2025

For this article, we are going to focus on Fantrax's best ball scoring, as it is one of the more popular platforms to play on. The table below shows you how it is scored. Be sure to also bookmark our Fantrax fantasy baseball rankings for best ball leagues.

*ADP is reflective of Fantrax

Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 170

Pfaadt put together a strong 2024 season that the surface stats don’t reflect. Across 181.2 innings in his first full MLB season, Pfaadt posted a 4.71 ERA and struck out just 24.3 percent of hitters. He did show impressive control, walking just 5.5 percent, and Pfaadt posted a FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, all 3.65 or lower.

It seemed that Pfaadt just lost steam to end the year. Through July 21, Pfaadt had a 3.74 ERA. Over his final 61.1 innings, he had a 6.60 ERA. While it was a rough end to the season, Pfaadt still posted three starts with at least ten strikeouts over his final nine. His ERA over that span was largely skewed by two blow-up starts in which he allowed eight runs.

One major issue was the 13 home runs that he allowed on his sweeper. When the pitch was on, it played well, as it generated a 36 percent whiff rate. But when he missed over the heart of the plate, the pitch was hammered.

When his performance was bad, Pfaadt appeared to be toying with his pitch mix. It is also worth noting in some of his dominant starts down the stretch; Pfaadt used the curveball more, which was highly effective.

If Pfaadt curbs the home run problem a bit, he could turn into a mid-threes ERA type of arm quickly. In a format where innings are key, Pfaadt is reliable and a great target in best ball leagues.

Jared Jones, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 132

Ready for a Jared Jones breakout? It could happen in 2025, and the cost is fairly low all things considered, going around pick 132 on average.

Jones broke camp with the Pirates in 2024, pitching 121.2 innings with a 4.14 ERA and a 26.2 percent strikeout rate. Jones missed several months in the season with a lat strain and, upon return, struggled, but Jones did finish the year strong. In his final start, Jones struck out seven batters across 4.1 innings while allowing two earned runs.

Jones blows his fastball by hitters, sitting north of 97 mph and hitting 101 on the gun. He creates plus IVB from his 5-foot-5 release height. His -4.1 VAA is near elite and Jones creates a ton of extension. This all led to an impressive 26 percent whiff rate.

The slider is Jones' primary used secondary, sitting 89 mph with a strong gyro shape. It had an impressive 37 percent whiff rate. The interesting thing to watch will be Jones's curveball. After using it around seven percent of the time for most of the season, he upped the usage to close to 16 percent in September and posted a 38 percent whiff rate that month.

The strike-throwing is good, and Jones has the pure stuff to significantly outperform his ADP. Expect plenty of innings and good results for Jones in 2025.

Something to watch closely with Jared Jones this spring is curveball usage. After using it around 7% of the time for most of last year, he upped the usage to nearly 16% in September. It could give him a strong third pitch. https://t.co/G7DrdZiTD1

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) February 18, 2025

Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 231

Williams had a strong rookie season in 2023, posting a 3.29 ERA across 82 innings. That followed a dominant stint in the minors. However, Williams hurt his elbow throwing a weighted ball, keeping him out until July.

Upon his return, things have been highly inconsistent, and Williams has a 4.86 ERA in 76 innings. The good news is that he has a 3.67 FIP, suggesting his performance has been better than the ERA suggests.

Williams's velocity is up from last year, which is a good sign that his elbow is healthy. He added a new cutter this year, which has been highly effective, with a .205 batting average against and a 34 percent whiff rate.

Williams's next step forward is likely to see his fastball usage take another step down. I do think there is plenty to like in the profile, and Williams's strong bounceback in 2025 makes him a good buy.

Justin Steele, SP, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 123

Steele is one of the more under-appreciated pitchers in MLB. While he is not flashy, he performs year-over-year. A hamstring injury kept him out for the first month of the 2024 season, and elbow soreness caused him to miss some starts to end the year. The positives are Steele’s imaging on his elbow was all clear, and he made his last two starts of the 2024 season.

When on the mound, Steele was as consistent as they come. In 134.2 innings, he posted a 3.07 ERA with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate. This followed a 2023 season where he posted a 3.06 ERA. Over the last three seasons, Steele has a combined 3.10 ERA with a 3.14 FIP.

While Steele throws predominantly just a four-seam and slider, we did see him drop the usage on those two pitches from 97 percent in 2023 to 89 percent in 2024. If Steele’s fastball sits 92 mph and he uses it nearly 60 percent of the time, then how does it work?

It starts with location. You could argue Steele’s zone percentage of 61 percent on the four-seam fastball is too high, and it ranked in the 98th percentile among starting pitchers. He pounds the strike zone and has late movement, which is highly deceptive to hitters.

There are no traits on the four-seam that jump off the page, but the way Steele spins the fastball is unique. Steele has natural supination bias, which allows it to have a unique movement profile for a four-seam. It almost appears to be a cutter at times, but it is more of a “cut-ride” movement profile.

Naturally, Steele spins his slider exceptionally well, having near-elite spin rates and 13 inches of sweep on average. Steele is one of the best weak-contact inducers in the game. His 4.2 percent barrel rate allowed last year was one of the best marks among all pitchers.

Injury concerns have kept the cost low on Steele, but he seems to be in the clear at this point, making his final two starts of 2024. You can expect very strong ratios with good strikeout numbers from Steele, and he is likely to return good value compared to what his actual draft price is in fantasy.

Grant Holmes, SP, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 395

Holmes has quite the story and background. After being selected in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft by the Dodgers, Holmes spent his entire career as a Minor League journeyman.

At least until 2024, 10 years after being drafted and toiling through the minors, Holmes got the chance to make his MLB debut in Atlanta and wound up pitching 68 innings with the MLB squad. His 3.56 ERA was rather impressive, and Holmes put up a 19.5 percent strikeout minus walk rate.

The Braves are quite confident in Holmes starting games for them, to the point where they are content no longer pursuing starting pitching this offseason. Holmes’s fastball sits around 95 mph and sets up the rest of his arsenal well.

The secondaries are where Holmes makes his money. The Slider and curveball both produced whiff rates north of 41 percent against MLB hitters, an impressive mark. The slider sits 86-87 mph with a strong gyro shape. The 84 mph curveball mimics the slider before falling off the table.

Given the advanced strike-throwing ability, Holmes has a good chance to stick in the Braves rotation and throw 120 innings. Jordan Rosenblum’s OOPSY projection, which puts Stuff+ in, projects him for a 3.88 ERA in 2025, and there is a chance he could strike out 25 percent of hitters. Holmes is going to be in the Braves rotation and possibly all season. He is an excellent end-game target.

AA stated in Oct Grant Holmes would be stretched out to start. They believe in him.
109 IP in 24 w/3.21 ERA, 121 K, 29 BB
SL & CB: 25% & 24% SwStr%, both 90th percentile or higher. Mid-90s FB will play. Advanced strike thrower. Could make 20 starts in 25pic.twitter.com/K2EaUKsvjF

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) January 23, 2025

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