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Kev examines second-year hitters ready to break out for 2024 fantasy baseball. Target these top sophomore hitters as fantasy baseball sleepers and breakouts.
Second-year players who excel in the big leagues attract attention every season as they use their rookie season experiences to refine their skills during the offseason and make significant strides in their sophomore year. By examining their 2023 stats, we can identify trends and areas for improvement, while projections from reputable sources such as Steamer, ZiPS, ATC, and The BAT can help gauge their potential performance in 2024.
Let's take a closer look at some of the intriguing second-year hitters who have the potential to become future stars in the league. We can identify players poised for a breakout season through a thorough analysis of their performance in 2023, minor league stats, and 2024 projections.
After you are done here, be sure to check out our other fantasy baseball breakouts and fantasy baseball sleepers articles as well. Also, for any questions or concerns, contact me on X @RotoSurgeon.
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Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz is one of the most polarizing young prospects in recent fantasy history. While his tools are loud and scream "superstar," he is certainly flawed given his swing-and-miss approach and ground ball tendencies.
Among all hitters in 2023 with at least 400 plate appearances, Cruz's ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (2.47) was third highest just behind Christian Yelich and Tim Anderson while his strikeout rate (33.7%) was fifth highest. One of these high ratios alone is cause for concern while even more alarming when compounded.
Nevertheless, Cruz was a 21-year-old rookie who otherwise dominated every level he crossed throughout the minors at an extremely young relative age. In his sophomore MLB season, there is reason for optimism from a hitter with a top-1% maximum exit velocity and 100th percentile sprint speed in 2023. What makes him somewhat safer as a risk is three things -- his defense, home park, and surrounding offense.
- Cruz ranked 85th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2023 and displayed 98th percentile arm strength at the premium position of shortstop. Even in a batting slump, he can provide immense value to his team.
- Great American Ball Park has been the third best in baseball over the past five years for hitters while also the best park for home runs (via FanGraphs).
- Meanwhile, the Reds offense is young and improving as they ranked ninth in wOBA last season and should be better in 2024 with growth from Cruz, Matt McLain, Will Benson, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand along with the addition of Jeimer Candelario. The loss of Noelvi Marte stings, but he should be back midseason from suspension.
Cruz posted 13 home runs and 35 stolen bases in 98 games as a rookie. Prorated to 155 games, that is a pace of 21 HRs and 55 SB. Only three players posted at least 50 SB last season and two of them are top-five fantasy picks in 2024 while Bobby Witt Jr., who just missed the cut with 49 SB, is consensus top three. Currently, Cruz's ADP sits in the late-second to early-fourth round ranges across standard category formats. That is an ideal area to take a shot on his upside even with the elevated bust risk.
Elly De La Cruz this spring....
22 PA, .412/.545/.765, 3 XBH, HR, 3 SB, 5/7 BB/K
TIRED: Elly is a bust/fade/avoid at ADP
WIRED: What if Elly takes a step forward and goes 30/50 in 2024?pic.twitter.com/CgxNYGXZB8— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 7, 2024
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker's fantasy upside may not be to the heights of Elly De La Cruz given his lack of speed, but there is a potential future first-round pick in his range of outcomes given the 80-grade power he possesses. Last season, Walker posted a modest, but encouraging fantasy line of 16 HRs, 51 runs, 51 RBI, and seven SB while slashing .276/.342/.445 in 465 plate appearances. Walker was toyed with in the lineup at times due to his inconsistencies, but as a 21-year-old rookie like Elly De La Cruz, this can be forgiven.
Jordan Walker is starting to get overlooked in drafts.
I just got him at 146 in a @TheReal_NFC DC.
Walker hit .276 with 16 HR and 7 SB as a 21-year-old rookie.
114.3 MPH Max EV (92nd percentile) with 80th percentile sprint speed.
Steamer projects 19 HR and 9 SB.
Easy OVER.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 11, 2024
Unlike the aforementioned Cruz, Walker does not possess borderline elite defense; rather, it is on the lower end of the spectrum due to his lack of range in the field while playing out of position. Nevertheless, Walker was legitimately good at the plate, posting a 116 wRC+ that topped Cruz's meager 84 wRC+. Walker should be an everyday staple in the 2024 Cardinals lineup, which cannot afford to toy with him due to injuries across the field between Tommy Edman and more recently, Lars Nootbaar.
Walker is likely to hit in the middle of a potent lineup consisting of talented veteran bats such as Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Willson Contreras ahead of him. This will open up plenty of opportunities to accrue RBI while continuing to unlock his monster power. Along with that, he has the capability of stealing 12-15 bases across a full season in addition to a high average. This sort of production outside the top 100 in most drafts is too appealing to pass up.
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
Volpe's production in 2023 was useful in fantasy but somewhat frustrating. There are not many players in the league who cross 20 HRs and 20 SB, particularly as rookies. However, when that is parlayed with a .209 batting average across 601 plate appearances, the categorical production is a lot less appealing.
There is good news, though, for anyone seeking redemption on a Volpe breakout. He has reportedly worked on his swing over this past offseason to seek more contact rather than outright mashing the ball as he did in 2023. This should result in a drop in power but a boost in average. Early spring training results are a tad questionable with his 2.40 GB/FB ratio, but that could also be a testing ground for trial and error.
Yankees’ Anthony Volpe’s offseason change that could lead to second-year breakout ⤵️https://t.co/I7kqLtdN4o
— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) March 11, 2024
Volpe's minor league profile was that of a multi-category contributor with a low strikeout rate and high walk rate. At the moment, the Yankees' leadoff hitter is 35-year-old DJ LeMahieu, who has struggled to stay on the field the past two seasons with 63 missed games since 2022.
LeMahieu is also declining as both a hitter and defender, which is natural at his position around this age. If LeMahieu struggles early on and Volpe shines, there will be an opportunity to overtake the leadoff role in a much more potent 2024 Yankees lineup featuring Juan Soto.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Triston Casas is a popular breakout candidate for good reason and is currently selected in the top-100 picks of fantasy drafts. Casas produced as a rookie last season with 24 HRs, 66 runs, and 65 RBI while slashing .263/.367/.490 in 132 games. Bad BABIP luck in 2022 (.208) affected the perception of Casas during his initial call-up as it resulted in a sub-.200 AVG.
Casas has some platoon risk as he has struggled to hit for average against lefties, but his power plays no matter who is pitching and his walk rate jumps immensely as he takes a more patient approach. Given that Casas' wRC+ has remained above 110 (10% better than the league average) against both righties and lefties throughout 597 career PA, we can assume he is an everyday player moving forward.
What is one of Triston Casas’ goals moving forward?
He wants a .300/.400/.500 slash line.
Also mentioned he wants to stick to his motto of getting on base and grinding out at-bats.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) March 5, 2024
The former first-round pick is due for a monster 2024 season as he is slated to hit in the middle of a much more potent lineup than 2023. Boston's offense was quite pedestrian last season as it posted a 99 wRC+ and a team OBP ranking 13th. This season, with Casas, Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida in Year 2, the additions of Tyler O'Neill and Ceddanne Rafaela, and Trevor Story another season removed from Tommy John, we could see a jump back into the MLB's top five.
Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
Maikel Garcia may not have multi-category upside like the aforementioned second-year breakouts in this piece, but he does have major speed paired with a likely high average. Garcia performed well as a rookie in 2023. His 23 steals and .272 batting average through 515 PA were playable in deeper formats but not immensely valuable.
This season, Garcia will be playing every day in an improving, young Royals offense. While he is slated to hit toward the bottom of the order as things stand, he can play his way atop the lineup (especially versus lefties) and into a position where significant runs could accrue.
#Royals Maikel Garcia projected lineup spot by site:
MLBPT: 1st
RR: 8th
RW: 9th vs RHP/1st vs LHPReason why I differ:
- In 2023, Maikel Garcia led off in 70 of the final 80 games and led the team in starts from the leadoff spot (73)
- So far in spring: 6 starts at leadoff and…— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) March 12, 2024
The power may be lackluster, but double-digit home runs could come by way of Garcia's regression as he underperformed as a hitter in 2023. His expected slugging percentage of .393 is far off from his actual slugging of .358. With regression, an improved lineup slot, and everyday playing time in 2024, Garcia could prove a valuable late-round fantasy value.
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