X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Late-Round Running Backs Who Will Outperform Their ADP

Running backs who may be sleeper picks in fantasy football based on ADP. Chris Mangano selects several RB who can be late-round targets for 2017 fantasy drafts.

Drafting running backs early in 2017 seems to be the increasingly common strategy. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, 17 running backs are being drafted in the first three rounds in PPR leagues.

The prevailing thought seems to be if you miss out on a running back in the early rounds you have no good options left. This is just not true as there is value at the position all throughout the draft.

Even in the double digit rounds, the late rounds, there are great options who can be weekly starters for winning teams. Here are several players that could be draft-day bargains and saviors for Zero RB enthusiasts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

What Makes A Late Round Running Back Successful

Without a doubt the most important factor when looking for running backs is touches. You can't accumulate yards and touchdowns without handling the ball, so nothing correlates better to fantasy success than touches. When looking for late round running backs we want players who already are getting plenty of touches or have a clear path to getting more touches. To make it easier here is a guideline:

  1. They should have a clearly defined role in the offense that makes it fairly easy to predict their touches from week to week.
  2. If they aren't the starting running back or are in a timeshare, there should be a clear path to an increased role either through injuries or performance.

Our late round running backs should check off at least one of these points. You should put a premium on running backs who check off the first box. These are the players that can start for you from week one and can fill in when you have injuries or bye weeks. Players in situation two may not offer as much at the moment but they are one injury or benching away from having a very big role. Be clear though, we don't want handcuffs who sit on the bench giving us zero's every week. We want players who have a role and just need things to break their way to see an increased in that role.

So now that we know what we are looking for, let's take a look at some late round running backs who can help your team win.

 

Late Round RBs For Fantasy Champs

Note: We will be using Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP for PPR formats. Fantasy Football Calculator tends to fall in line more with casual leagues:

 

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR), RB45

While rookie Christian McCaffrey continues to garner all the hype, old-reliable Stewart has been virtually forgotten by fantasy drafters. McCaffrey appears to be little threat to Stewart's early down and goal-line role, likely to be used more in the passing game. While Stewart isn't flashy he had at least 10 touches in 11 of his 13 games played. He also received a carry or target on 42.1% of the Panthers goal-line snaps in 2016 which ranked 10th best among running backs. Over the last three years he has finished as RB24, RB24 and RB29. Currently the 45th running back off the board Stewart should easily outperform his ADP.

Darren Sproles (RB, PHI), RB51

In 2016 Sproles finished as RB24 and averaged 11 PPG, and his situation entering 2017 is largely unchanged. Sure, the Eagles signed LeGarrette Blount to replace Ryan Mathews as the power back, but that has little effect on Sproles. Sproles is a weapon in the passing game and has seen at least 80 targets in four of the last six years. Over that same stretch he has never had fewer than 40 catches, 700 total yards and four touchdowns. Those are high RB3 numbers and that is his floor. We saw last year the Eagles would not hesitate to use him in the running game if Blount struggles, which is likely as the Eagles try to use him in an East/West fashion rather than the straight ahead runner he is. Some are worried about Donnel Pumphrey assuming his role, but Pumphrey has looked bad in the preseason and is little threat to Sproles. Being drafted as running back 51 makes him an easy pick to outperform his ADP.

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) & Gio Bernard (RB, CIN), RB52, RB53

With everyone expecting Joe Mixon to just dominate this backfield his draft price has risen to a ridiculous early fourth. Meanwhile Hill and Bernard can be had in the late 12th and early 13th. Bernard is recovering from a torn ACL, and while he hasn't played in preseason yet he has been a full participant in camp. Bernard is a dangerous threat out of the backfield and should have a role in this passing game. Hill, meanwhile, has been sharing first team snaps with Mixon in the preseason and is also likely to have a role, even if it's just a goal line role to start. If Mixon struggles, Hill and Bernard could see a much bigger workload. Regardless both should have no trouble outperforming their late round ADP's by seasons end.

Rex Burkhead (RB, NEP), RB58

Many experts widely believed that Mike Gillislee was going to assume the Blount role for the Patriots, and his fifth round ADP shows this. However there is a better running back, and a more likely candidate to assume that role, available later in the draft in the form of Burkhead. Unfortunately Gillislee's hamstring and Burkhead's performance in the preseason is starting to drive his ADP up, but he's still a steal this late in the draft. Burkhead excels not only running between the tackles but in the passing game as well. He could easily be a two-down back in this offense and he's someone you should be targeting in all of your drafts. Let someone else take Gillislee in the fifth while you scoop up the player most likely to lead this backfield in touches in the 13th.

Shane Vereen (RB, NYG), RB64

The Giants backfield is typically a wasteland as they don't run often or successfully enough. In 2016 the Giants ran the ball only 398 times (23rd fewest) while throwing it 598 times (8th most). While that hurts Paul Perkins value, it helps Vereen's. In 2014 with the Patriots and 2015 with the Giants, Vereen had 52 and 59 catches respectively. He will have an immediate role in the passing game and could assume a much larger role if Perkins struggles or gets banged up. In PPR formats Vereen should have high RB3 value with the potential for more and will easily outperform his ADP.

Hopefully you now realize running back value exists all throughout the draft, even late. Don't reach on a running back early because you feel like you have to get one. Once you get past the first five or six players the drop off is severe and you are better served waiting a bit. Don't be surprised if a few of the players listed above end up on championship winning teams in 2017 either.

 

More Running Backs Draft Analysis


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Tuesday Night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Pulled With Hamstring Tightness
MLB

Game 2 of Brewers-Cubs on Monday Postponed
Bryce Miller

to be Activated on Tuesday
Kyle Tucker

to Get Multiple Days Off
Shane Bieber

to Make Season Debut on Friday
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Zack Wheeler

has Surgery to Remove Blood Clot
De'Von Achane

Unlikely to Practice This Week
Justin Jefferson

Returning to Practice
Chris Godwin

Bucs Chris Godwin Likely to Start Season on PUP List
Joe Flacco

Browns Name Joe Flacco as Their Week 1 Starter
Jalen McDaniels

Inks Deal With New Orleans
N'Faly Dante

Signs Deal With Hawks
Matthew Stafford

Practicing on Monday
Dru Smith

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Austin Dillon

Scores an Upset Victory at Richmond
William Byron

Clinches the Regular Season Championship Title at Richmond
Denny Hamlin

Pit-Road Struggles Impede Denny Hamlin's Chances of a Top Finish at Richmond
Joey Logano

Earns A Fourth-Place Finish at Richmond
Kyle Larson

Rallies to A Top-10 Finish at Richmond
Malik Nabers

Dealing With Back Injury
Khamzat Chimaev

Is The New UFC Middleweight Champion
Dricus Du Plessis

Gets Dominated At UFC 319
Aaron Pico

Suffers Knockout Loss In His UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Scores Stunning First-Round Knockout
Leodalis De Vries

Earns Promotion to Double-A
Nathaniel Lowe

Finalizing Deal with Boston
Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Ketel Marte

Arizona Could Trade Ketel Marte in the Offseason
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed
Tim Elliott

Gets Submission Win
Kai Asakura

Still Winless In The UFC
Austin Cindric

has Arguably his Best Run of the Season at Richmond
Ryan Blaney

Contends for First Richmond Win but Comes Up Short
Alex Bowman

Finishes Second but Loses Ground in Playoffs
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Sets Personal Laps-Led Record at Richmond
Chris Buescher

Falls Out of Playoffs After Miserable Richmond Run
Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Samuel Basallo

Called Up From Triple-A Norfolk
J.K. Dobbins

Expected to Win Starting RB Job?
Quentin Johnston

Suffers Concussion in Preseason Loss
Jaxson Dart

Plays Well on Saturday Night
Marcus Semien

Avoids Serious Injury
Kyle Stowers

Heads to Injured List With Left-Side Strain
Zack Wheeler

Placed on Injured List With Blood Clot in Shoulder
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Optimistic Terry McLaurin Deal Can Get Done Soon
De'Von Achane

De’Von Achane Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Josh Hader

Unlikely to Return During Regular Season
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Kyle Stowers

Out Saturday With Left-Side Tightness
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Jhoan Duran

Feels "100%"
Marcus Semien

Out on Saturday, Going for X-Rays on his Wrist
George Springer

Activated and Starting on Saturday
Dylan Beavers

Called Up by Orioles
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Activate Terry McLaurin From PUP List
Rashee Rice

NFL Could Reach Settlement Before Hearing
Joe Mixon

Not a Lock to be Ready For Week 1
Rashee Rice

Receives Clearance to Travel to Brazil for Week 1
Haywood Highsmith

Dealt to Brooklyn on Friday
Amir Coffey

Signs One-Year Deal With Bucks
Khamzat Chimaev

A Favorite At UFC 319
Dricus Du Plessis

Set For His Third Title Defense
Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Geoff Neal

Looks For His Second Win In A Row
Travis Hunter

Dealing With Upper-Body Injury, Could be Held Out of Preseason Game
Michael Page

Set For His Second Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kai Asakura

Looks For His First UFC Win
Tim Elliott

Set To Open Up UFC 309 Main Card
CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
NHL

Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
NHL

Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team
Payton Pritchard

Reportedly Moving Into Starting Lineup
Quinshon Judkins

Won't Face Formal Charges
Kevin Durant

Rockets Not Interested in Keeping Kevin Durant with Max Extension
NBA

Isaiah Mobley Joins Turkish Team
NBA

Cole Swider Links Up with EuroLeague Powerhouse
Ethan Thompson

Joins Heat for Training Camp
Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers Add Jason Preston for Training Camp
Akshay Bhatia

a High-Upside Play at BMW Championship
Robert MacIntyre

a Safe Play at BMW Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im a Risky Play at BMW Championship
Xander Schauffele

Chases Big Week at BMW Championship
Shane Lowry

Aims to Rebound at BMW Championship
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Build Momentum at BMW Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looking to Rebound at BMW Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Eyeing Another BMW Championship Victory
Neemias Queta

Wants to Raise His Free-Throw Attempts
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Stuggling to Trade Anfernee Simons
Cole Anthony

Focuses on Winning with Bucks
NBA

Jesse Edwards Moves to Australia
Kessler Edwards

Joins Nuggets

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP