Quarterback Rankings, Tiers, and Analysis

August 20, 2020

Brandon Murchison analyzes the Rotoballer staff consensus rankings for the QB position in redraft leagues and how these quarterback rankings can help shape your draft for the 2020 season.

With the influx of talented young prospects, the quarterback position in fantasy football seems to be the deepest it has ever been. Although the overwhelming mindset has been that you can wait on the position in drafts, it has become more prevalent as we enter the 2020 season. No longer is it a dire need to grab one of the top QBs off the board because building your roster at other positions while waiting is just as successful as owning Patrick Mahomes and limiting your value elsewhere. But as is always the case, each draft is different, and the time in which you look to add your QB changes based on how the drafts unfold. Sometimes you find yourself with the chance to select a QB that continues to slide down the board. In that case, you have to grab the value while it is there, even if it may be against your pre-draft strategy.

The staff here at Rotoballer have put together our consensus rankings for the position to help you better prepare for your drafts. Perhaps this road-map eases the draft process when the time comes to select your QB1 for the 2020 season and the selection isn't one that causes you a headache. There may come a point in your draft when you are faced with a decision between Drew Brees and Carson Wentz. Well, our handy cheatsheet or rankings will guide you in the right direction with the consensus best choice. Because we all know that you don't have to have the best QB to win in fantasy, but you must have a good one to stay competitive.

With that being said, let's take a look at the standard QB rankings from the staff as I analyze the tiers and breakdown the players within them. The goal is to give you a better perspective of players to target in your drafts and help you build your best roster.

2020 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings

Tier 1

The top tier in our rankings is filled by the top two QBs in fantasy with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. When it boils down to it, you can't go wrong with the selection of either. It all boils down to what you want from the position. With Lamar Jackson, you know you are getting more upside from a rushing perspective (1,213 yards on the ground). But shockingly enough, Jackson led the league in not only total points but also passing touchdowns. The question with Jackson for 2020 will be how to value him if there is a regression from his rushing yardage? If that yardage dips, can he offset that with increases from a passer?

Any way you slice it, the Ravens offense is geared to help Jackson succeed and that he does. Outside of industry drafts, expect to see Jackson taken at some point in the first three rounds. Heavy price? yes, but one that is certainly worth it.

The other QB in this tier, Patrick Mahomes, is without a doubt the top passer in the game today and a threat to score from any point on the field. The Chiefs' high-powered offense is tailored for Mahomes skill set allowing him to use his incredible accuracy to hit his playmakers in stride. Due to the injury, Mahomes took a step back in 2019 but still managed to finish as QB6 on the season. With his ability to pile up points (nine QB1 games in 2019), Mahomes should easily be one of the top two QBs off the board during drafts.

Tier 2

The next tier is chock full of established fantasy talents that still have some upside in their value. Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Josh Allen all reside within this group. Dak Prescott has been one of the most consistent scorers in fantasy with a QB1 finish in each of the last four years. Now heading into 2020, he is playing for a big contract, surrounded by an immense amount of talent. Playing with a Cowboys offense that is among the best in the league in scoring (6th) and pace of play (6th), Prescott will have his opportunities and should be among the top at the position yet again in 2020.

Between the next two (Murray and Wilson), you have two players that are years apart in experience but bring similar value to their game. Even with a very inconsistent year, Murray used his legs (544 yards and four TDs) to finish as the QB9 on the season. Now with a full year under his belt in the system and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Murray has the table set for a major step forward in 2020. The defense is expected to be subpar, putting Murray and the offense in a positive game-script in terms of fantasy production. Wilson continues to be the model of consistency in fantasy scoring never failing to provide a QB1 finish in his career. The Seahawks offensive mentality remains a run-first offense, but we did see an increase in passing attempts (516) from Wilson a year ago. He has the weapons there to utilize (Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf) but must be allowed to be let loose to have value as a passer (only two 300-yard games in 2019). He's become incredibly efficient in scoring (over 30 passing TDs in each of the last three seasons) and must continue to be that way to hold his ranking in fantasy.

The final two QBs in this tier, in my opinion, come with question marks. With back-to-back top-5 finishes at the position, Watson has proven to be a valuable commodity for fantasy owners. But we saw some inconsistencies in his game in 2019. His YPA dropped below 8.0 for the first time, while his interceptions (12) rose as well. The departure of Hopkins will hurt this offense, but the opportunities will still be there for Watson to hold his value in these rankings. As for Allen, there is a lot of promise that he will make yet another step forward in his progression (QB8 in 2019) in the upcoming season. The rushing potential is what drives owners to Allen (17 rushing scores in his first two years), but if Allen is to truly reach his potential he must improve as a passer. He graded out as the worst QB in the league in catchable passes 20-yards downfield a year ago and now has a receiver (Stefon Diggs) that excels in that area. I have Allen as QB14 in my rankings, but I can see Allen taking that step forward and maintaining QB1 value this season.

Tier 3

This group consists of only two veteran QBs playing on high-powered offenses (Matt Ryan and Drew Brees). Even though he has the 26th toughest schedule for the position in 2020, Ryan and the Falcons offense always put up numbers. With weapons all around him and a defense that is expected to be bad, Ryan will have to put up points. He has not been under 4,000 yards passing since 2010 and consistently is around 30 TDs each year. So you know what you are getting with the player. Also, if you believe in superstition, Ryan has been the QB2 each of the past two "even-numbered" years.

Due to the injury last year, it was the first time for Brees outside the top-10 at the position since 2003. Expect for him to be there yet again in 2020 (also may be his final season) thanks in large part to the outstanding supporting cast he has around him.

What could be called the veteran tier, this group is full of years of fantasy football experience. Tom Brady is learning the first new system of his career but is surrounded by what may be the best set of receivers he's ever had. The potential is there for him to see 30 TDs yet again, but I believe the time of him being a high volume passer is done.

Carson Wentz suffered to a QB24 finish a season ago as the team was hit with countless injuries to receivers. But after re-stocking the tool shed, we should see Wentz get back to his QB1 ways in the high-powered Eagles offense.

Tier 4

Both Rodgers and Stafford are aging veterans that seem to be heading in opposite directions.

Sure, Rodgers was again over 4,000 yards passing last year with 26 TDs, but his second-half performance left a lot to be desired. Add in a run-based offense with a lack of receiving options and you have a QB that could likely struggle to get back to his once-dominant ways. Stafford, meanwhile, was on the way to what may have been the best season of his career before the injury. Playing a poor defense and a group of talented wide-outs, Stafford should be able to push for a low-end QB1 finish.

In this next group, you find a mixture of established talents along with some up-and-coming players. Out of this group, the player that catches my eye the most is Daniel Jones. He had an up and down season, as most rookies do, but when he hit he hit big. Two of his big scoring weeks were inside the top-10, a stat that only Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson can claim for 2019. The supporting cast around him may not be the greatest, but with a poor Giants Defense allowing plenty of points, the honus will be on Jones and the offense to match points. With a full 16 games to work with, I believe that Jones could put together a 4,500-yard season with over 30 TDs. Putting him in the discussion as a low-end QB1.

Meanwhile, the other QBs in this tier all have questions surrounding them. Can Ben Roethlisberger come back from the elbow injury and return to QB1 form? Or will the passing attack continue to suffer after the departure of Antonio Brown? Will Ryan Tannehill carry the momentum of the eight-game stretch to finish the 2019 season forward, or will we see the Titans offense from the playoffs that solely focused on Derrick Henry? Both Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are coming off of disappointing seasons but have the tools and weapons to make a large leap forward. Goff has been there before but the 12 personnel of the Rams could limit his opportunities to score. While Mayfield flashes the skills of a potential QB1, he lapses in judgment, and turnover worthy plays lead to bouts of inconsistency that lands him in this spot on our rankings.

Tier 5

Joe Burrow stands above veterans Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers but this is where the rookie QB belongs. He brings a talent at QB to the Bengals that they have not had in years. He can make all the throws and even does that with accuracy down the field. The talent around him is good enough to carry him on off weeks, but Burrow could find himself putting consistent numbers. The Bengals offensive line will be vastly improved in 2020, while the defense may be one of the worst in football.

When it comes to what you need in a fantasy QB, those two factors in heavily. Opportunity is the name of the game, and Burrow should see plenty of it. I would not be shocked to see him put 4,000 passing yards and 30 TD in his rookie season.

Tier 6 and lower

The rest of the QBs that fill out of rankings are players that you will see hold value mostly as QB2s in fantasy or if they are even rostered at all depending on the size of your league. But still, you can find diamonds in the rough down in this area that could prove to be helpful for you in the 2020 season.

Cam Newton - Continues to rise up the rankings and should have weeks in which he puts up QB1 numbers. We've seen in the past when he is healthy he is a viable option to fantasy owners and I expect to see Bill Belichick get the most out of Newton. There will be weeks in which Newton could cause you headaches, but drafting him as a QB2 for fantasy allows you to find the right matchups in which to start him.

Drew Lock - The second-year QB showed down the stretch in 2019 that he has some tools to work with. So the front office went out and added pieces around him to help take the next step. Although they will lean more on the run with Melvin Gordon, look for the Broncos to utilize a lot of 11 personnel with stud Courtland Sutton and rookie Jerry Jeudy causing tough matchups for opposing defenses.

Gardner Minshew II - Minshew's rookie campaign was full of ups and downs but also saw six QB1 finishes. He is starting to catch the eye of other experts in the industry as a potential sleeper for the 2020 season. Much of that is due to the addition of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator who has gotten the most of QBs like Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins. With the state of the Jaguars Defense, we could see plenty of garbage time scoring from Minshew in 2020. Which helped a former Jaguar (Blake Bortles) put together a QB1 season previously.

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