Free Agency Check - Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers and Fallers

Ellis looks at the impact of free agency on the fantasy football quarterback landscape, determining whether current ADPs are reflective of teams' moves this offseason.

This NFL offseason has been incredible. With big-name free agents shuffling around the league, 2025 looks like an exciting season, and we haven’t even had the draft yet!

Over the last few offseasons, we have seen a massive increase in quarterbacks switching teams. This season, the list includes Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, and potentially Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins.

Some quarterbacks in that list have been acquired as free agents, while others were traded for. Either way, in this article, we dive into what the team has done to help its play-callers in 2025. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Quarterback ADP Risers and Fallers. Draft data will be taken from Underdog Best Ball ADP. 

Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)

Arguably, the biggest winner this offseason was the coolest cat in the AFC North. Joe Cool has changed the entire narrative around the Cincinnati Bengals since he was drafted. Not only did he take the team to a Super Bowl appearance, but he strong-armed one of the cheapest front offices into providing two 100-million-dollar-plus contracts for his receivers.

Tee Higgins reuniting with the team that drafted him should go down as one of the biggest deals this offseason. Not only from a financial standpoint, but over the last two years, it seemed impossible for him to stay. 

The Bengals also re-signed Mike Gesicki to their tight-end room. Although this is less exciting, Gesicki played a key role when Higgins was sidelined due to injury. Based on Higgins’ injury history, this signing should further solidify Burrow as a QB1 for fantasy.

On the defensive side, the Bengals are still looking for a new deal for last year’s sack leader, Trey Hendrickson. Reports seem to indicate that a deal may be imminent; however, it’ll be hard after signing both receivers.

They also signed former Green Bay Packer T.J. Slaton, who is a top-end run-stuffer on the defensive line. It’s going to take more than these two to solve this defense; however, with the draft around the corner and new defensive coordinator Al Golden, there is optimism that they turn it around.

Since the start of Best Ball drafts, Burrow has risen to QB6. I believe this is still a discount and could easily rise higher. Last year, he finished as the QB3, passing for 4,900 yards and 43 touchdowns. With the defense (hopefully) taking a step forward, these numbers may come down a bit. However, I’d be happy to take him as a top-4 QB this season.

Let’s compare Josh Allen’s MVP season vs Joe Burrow’s “awful non-playoff” 2024 season: pic.twitter.com/eAW03XpaF2

— Wincy (@WincinnatiPod) March 29, 2025

Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)

One of the most surprising moves this offseason was the Seahawks moving on from Geno Smith and acquiring Sam Darnold. Financially, this saved them some money as Smith was asking for more than Darnold received. However, many believe this is a slight downgrade in talent with limited upside.

To further muddy the fantasy waters, the team traded away former second-round selection DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Shortly after, Cooper Kupp was released by the Rams and decided to stay in the division, signing with the Seahawks. As if that wasn’t enough of a change, the team also replaced offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb with former New Orleans Saints OC Klint Kubiak. What a roller coaster.

As we try to decipher what this all means, we also have the question: Can Darnold replicate his 2024 season? I believe that from an ability standpoint, Darnold can have a similar season. Unfortunately, I am not sure if the team around him can support it. 

The Seahawks have two glaring needs on their offense: the line and the receiver position. After trading Metcalf and releasing Tyler Lockett, this team has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kupp, and Jake Bobo. Not only are there not enough receivers, but both Kupp and JSN occupy a very similar role in the slot. This makes Seattle a destination for a rookie in a WR class that does not have an abundance of top-tier talent.

Even if the Seahawks manage to solve their receiver room, the offensive line is a bigger worry. Thankfully, the line should be better than last year with some injury luck, as only two linemen played more than 60 percent of their offensive snaps.

However, an upgrade from the bottom is still pretty bad. According to Pro Football & Sports Network, the Seahawks are projected to have the 31st-ranked O-line in 2025. We’ll see how this changes in the draft, but Darnold without an abundance of receiving weapons and a bad line does not sound like a recipe for success.

Currently, Darnold is around the 20th quarterback going off the board. Although this seems low, I’d be inclined to avoid him and take players with a higher upside later in the draft such as any of the rookies this year.

Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)

And here I thought Daniels couldn’t get any better from last season. It turns out that the Commanders want to do everything they can to ensure that what happened to C.J. Stroud doesn’t happen to Daniels in his sophomore year. 

Last season was special for the rookie, taking the Commanders to the NFC title game. He did this with a receiving corps of Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus. Impressive. This list doesn’t include last year's second-round selection, Ben Sinnott, and third-round pick Luke McCaffrey, who may take a step forward in 2025. 

This offseason, they brought back Noah Brown and Ertz, along with trading for Deebo Samuel Sr. from the 49ers. Although Samuel may not be what he used to be, he instantly becomes the second-best WR on this team while adding a dynamic piece for OC Kliff Kingsbury. Additionally, this team is often mock-drafted a WR in this year’s draft, further adding to the depth of the position. 

Arguably, the biggest acquisition this offseason was trading for star offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil. To the shock of many, the Texans let the five-time Pro Bowler move for a few picks, including a 2025 third-round selection and a 2026 second-round pick. Despite Tunsil’s apparent character issues, this is a massive addition to the Commanders offense.

The only cold water on this red-hot team is if defenses can figure out Kingsbury’s offense (much like his second year in Arizona). However, that seems unlikely with the talent and composure of Daniels under center. Daniels is going as a top-4 quarterback, and it is hard to argue against drafting him over anyone not named Josh Allen. 

Jayden Daniels posted this in 2014 🔮

Since then:
▪️ 2023 Heisman winner
▪️ No. 2 Pick in 2024 NFL Draft
▪️ Led Commanders to NFC Championship for the first time in 33 years
▪️ 2-0 in NFL Playoff starts
▪️ ROTY front-runner pic.twitter.com/FTsLkRSJja

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 19, 2025

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)

In what was a fairly quiet offseason for the Rams, Stafford managed to get an upgrade at the WR position. Despite being 32 years old, Davante Adams still has juice. The acquisition of one of the best wide receivers of the last decade is a significant boost alongside Puka Nacua. Adams provides Stafford with a dynamic player who thrives in the red zone, an area of the field that neither Kupp nor Nacua thrives in.

Stafford is currently going as the QB22 behind Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa. I have no issue selecting Stafford above these aforementioned QBs and would be content with him as my QB2 in Superflex leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Don’t let their offseason acquisition of DK Metcalf fool you, this offense is still not great. This shouldn’t be a surprise as we still do not know who is under center for this team.

Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or any of the other options, their QB will likely be off the fantasy radar. Metcalf, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth are not the worst receiving corps, but it is far from the best. Pair this group with an aging quarterback like Rodgers or an overdrafted rookie, and it isn’t looking pretty for 2025.

Drake Maye (QB, NE)

Just because you have money to spend doesn’t mean you need to spend it. That may be a good philosophy for life, but it isn’t how the Patriots view things.

Entering the 2025 offseason, the Patriots had a ridiculous amount of cap space to work with. Most of this money ended up going toward solidifying their defense. However, veteran Stefon Diggs (who is coming off a torn ACL) signed a massive three-year deal. Diggs instantly becomes this team’s top WR in a room that would only be considered decent if it was competing for the Grey Cup.

Either way, I am not banking on a 31-year-old wide receiver coming off a major injury to boost my fantasy quarterback. As a result, Drake Maye going as the QB15 ahead of Stroud and the aforementioned Lawrence, Tagovailoa, and Stafford is too rich for my liking. 

Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)

In a career resurgence, Mayfield proved to the haters that 2023 was not an anomaly. Despite losing Chris Godwin seven weeks into the season, Mayfield finished as the QB4 last year.

This offseason, the Bucs managed to keep Godwin for a three-year, $66 million deal. That was a huge win for the team, as Godwin could have likely received more money elsewhere. As a result, the Bucs look to run it back, setting up Mayfield for another great season.

I believe Mayfield is fairly priced as the QB7 in drafts. However, I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting a quarterback with more athletic traits, such as Kyler Murray or Caleb Williams, as well as the talent of Justin Herbert, over Mayfield.

Every QB in NFL history with a Comp% above 70% and 40+ Pass TDs in a single season:

2024 Baker Mayfield
2024 Joe Burrow
2020 Aaron Rodgers
2011 Drew Brees pic.twitter.com/Tf9HNcDLLw

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) March 30, 2025

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