PGA DFS (DraftKings Ownership Projections): Power Pivots - The American Express

January 14, 2020

Joe Nicely digs into DraftKings PGA DFS ownership projections for the American Express, providing under-the-radar PGA DFS lineup picks and sleepers.

Please enjoy this RotoBaller PGA Premium article free for a limited time.

Hi RotoBallers and welcome to Power Pivots! In this article we'll discuss some players that are currently projected to be popular (Chalk) options in this week's DraftKings PGA tournaments and highlight some pivot options that will come with less ownership.

All DraftKings PGA DFS ownership projections for this week are courtesy of our partners over at Fantasy National and are always subject to change as the week progresses. OK, let's tee it up!

The American Express Notes

This tournament has a rather unique format that challenges players with three different courses over their first three rounds before trimming down the field for the final round. The courses themselves are not difficult and routinely rank as some of the easier layouts on the PGA Tour schedule, but the true challenge for players in this event is the pro-am aspect, which can lead to extremely long and frustrating rounds.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

The Chalk: Sungjae Im / The Pivot: Charles Howell III

$11,000 - Projected Ownership: 21.2% / $10,100 - Projected Ownership: 10.9%

It's hard to argue with rostering a rising star like Sungjae Im, who simply plays quality golf week in and week out. However, Im is currently projected to be the most popular player on the board for the AmEx, which makes us at least consider pivoting away from the 21-year-old in GPPs.

We're usually discussing Charles Howell III as the chalk during this time of year, but DraftKings has jacked his price up above $10k for The American Express, which appears to be giving DFS players a bit of pause. CH3 is currently projected at around 10% ownership, roughly half that of Im, and comes in $900 cheaper than the young Korean. It probably goes without saying that Howell has OWNED this part of the calendar during his career. He's ran off 11-straight made cuts in this event and heads to La Quinta on the heels of a strong T12 outing at the Sony Open last week.

The Chalk: Scottie Scheffler / The Pivot: Francesco Molinari

$9,500 - Projected Ownership: 17.2% / $9,200 - Projected Ownership: 8.6%

You have to hand it to DraftKings, their pricing just keeps getting sharper and sharper. This week they have DFS-darling Scottie Scheffler priced higher than a major champion in Francesco Molinari. The thing is...the pricing is on the nose because most people will actually lean Scheffler this week.

It's easy to assume that this is just a "knock the rust off" event for Molinari, but he's actually played well in this tournament in previous years, recording a T12 in 2017 and a T10 in 2015. That's more history than we have on Scheffler, who will be making his AmEx debut this week. As I mentioned in the notes above, this format is a considerably different animal than pros generally see on a weekly basis due to the pro-am format. So while Molinari's form and motivation are legitimate question marks this week, he's still an interesting way to gain leverage in large-field GPPs thanks to his reasonable expected ownership and true tournament-winning upside.

The Chalk: Cameron Tringale / The Pivot: Nick Taylor

$7,100 - Projected Ownership: 15.9% / $7,000 - Projected Ownership: 6.1%

I get the Cameron Tringale love, I really do. He had a rock-solid season in 2019 (a season where he remained perpetually underpriced on DFS slates) and you can't argue with him at this price tag. That said, a calculated fade of the "cheap chalk" is never a bad strategy in GPPs.

I'm intrigued by Nick Taylor this week at $7k. Taylor logged a ho-hum T32 at the Sony last week while losing 1.7 strokes putting, but he was brilliant with his irons, gaining 5.1 strokes on Approach for the week - a tally that was fifth-best in the field. He had a strong fall, flirting with top-25s in three of his six starts and scoring a T10 at the Safeway. He's proven that he can handle this event as well, and has recorded three-straight made cuts in the AmEx since 2017. If (and its an if) Taylor can find his putting stroke this week, he's an intriguing sleeper in tournaments.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks