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Gage Bridgford (@GbridgfordNFL) identifies quarterbacks to watch in Week 5 based on the opposing pass rush defense. These QBs could be players to fade and avoid or to start and stream in fantasy football leagues.
Week 5 is here, and we have NFL offenses rocking and rolling. Defenses are adjusting to the new rules of pass interference, and life is getting even harder on cornerbacks that are trying to play the ball without causing too much contact.
In the trenches, offensive lines were dealing with chemistry issues to start the year, but those issues are starting to fade in certain situations. With that brings continuity, and, with that continuity, quarterbacks are going to get more comfortable which allows them to make better choices with the football in their hands.
Week 5 brings with it two more byes as teams are looking to get healthy or hit the reset button after some early struggles. The middling Detroit Lions are looking to focus themselves before Week 6, and the Miami Dolphins are at home wondering if they can trade their oven for a sixth-round pick.
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Look Away Before It Gets Ugly
Kirk Cousins @ New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked unsettled throughout the early portions of this season. He's been sacked just eight times through four games, which is tied for the sixth-best mark in the NFL. The problem for him has been that, with how rarely he drops back, he's being hit on a higher percentage of plays than he's used to. Entering Week 5, the Vikings offensive line ranks 24th in their adjusted sack percentage. When Cousins is in the pocket, he's being rushed into bad choices.
The New York Giants traded away their best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon, and they chose to neglect that position in the early part of this year's draft. Despite that, they're tied for seventh in the NFL with 10 sacks, but, more importantly, they're getting around the quarterback. Their adjusted sack rate of 8.5 percent is the seventh-best mark in the league. On Sunday, they'll be around Cousins often, and they'll force Minnesota to win by running the ball.
Baker Mayfield @ San Francisco 49ers
Besides possibly being without his number two wide receiver Jarvis Landry (concussion), Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has been struggling this year. In Week 5, Cleveland travels to San Francisco to face the 49ers, and his offensive line hasn't been giving him the confidence to stand back in the pocket to fire down the field. Guard Eric Kush and tackle Chris Hubbard have graded out as below average players at their position, and it's contributed to the team allowing 12 sacks through just four games.
On the other side, the 49ers are a team that's built for offensive success in the mold of division-rival Los Angeles Rams. However, their defense has been fundamentally sound at all three levels so far this season. They only have nine sacks so far on the year, which is in the bottom half of the NFL, but they get pressure at an above-average rate. Mayfield struggles under pressure. Between playing in primetime, on the road, against a defense that is playing well, the cards are stacked against Mayfield on Monday night.
Kyle Allen vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Before the season started, I never thought I would be writing about Carolina Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen. He was the backup to quarterback Cam Newton, and that wasn't going to change. Now, he's starting, and he has a troublesome matchup in Week 5. His offensive line has given up 11 sacks on the year, and they could be in line to give up more this week. They've given up more sacks, and they have a below-average adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent.
For the Jacksonville Jaguars, their defense has 13 sacks on the year, and they're 10th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate at 8.2 percent. Rookie linebacker Josh Allen has gotten in on the action with two sacks, and nine different players have at least 1/2 of a sack. Jacksonville has multiple players that can get after the quarterback, and, against an ailing Panthers' offensive line, now is the time for them to pounce early in this road game.
That's More Like It
Tom Brady @ Washington Redskins
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady looked somewhat human in last week's 16-10 win over the Buffalo Bills. However, throughout this season, one thing has remained constant. He is not getting sacked very often. The team has given up just four sacks on the season, and one of those was on backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Brady's quick release and good offensive line give the laundry team a light amount of work regularly.
Against the Washington Redskins, Brady doesn't have a ton of reason to believe he'll be on the ground very often. Washington has just five sacks on the year, and they're pressuring quarterbacks into sacks and intentional groundings just 4.8 percent of the time. They're only better than four other teams, and they haven't been improving. Brady's matchup is juicy for this week.
Carson Wentz vs New York Jets
While the Philadelphia Eagles' pass rush has struggled to get rolling, as they rank 32nd in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, the offensive line is getting their job done. Wentz has been sacked just seven times, and he's getting the ball out quick. His time-to-throw is at 2.58 which is the 10th-best mark in the league. In addition to his effective play, the team's running backs have been rolling which helps to slow down opposing pass rushers.
Washington has a bad pass rush, but the New York Jets are only slightly better. They also only have five sacks, but they're doing it with fewer opportunities. Their adjusted sack rate is 5.5 percent which is still not good, and Wentz is going to feast as he picks them apart. Against the Green Bay Packers last week, Wentz was able to survive relatively unscathed, and he should have an even better performance this week.
Patrick Mahomes vs Indianapolis Colts
This seems like a chalky pick, but it also makes a lot of sense. Despite giving opposing teams a ton of opportunities to sack him, as he's tied for fifth in the NFL in passing attempts, he's been taken down just three times this season. A large part of that has been the running game's ability to slow down the pass rush while the receiving weapons do their job to get open. With an adjusted sack rate of just 3.3 percent, this is one of the top groups in the NFL.
For the Indianapolis Colts, they came out of the gates firing on all cylinders at rushing the passer. They had four sacks in each of the first two games, but they have just one over the two. Their injury report is a mile long with defensive starters abounding. Even if the pass rush can turn the corner a little faster than normal, the coverage likely won't be able to hold up. Mahomes could have a huge game at home this week against Indy.
