RADIO
Week 8 of the NFL season is here, and the teams are starting to flesh themselves a little bit more with each passing week. There are still going to be results that surprise everyone – I'm looking at you Chicago – but the teams at the top of the pyramid have slowly started to create a gap between themselves and the field. For the teams that are still hoping to compete for a Super Bowl title, they need to get themselves figured out sooner rather than later.
A quick summary of last week would show you that it was one near miss after another all day long. Michael Pittman Jr. missed his line by eight yards after teammate Parris Campbell had his highest yardage output since September of 2020. Ezekiel Elliott also came up eight yards short after he left the game early with a knee injury while Tony Pollard finished strong on the ground. Joe Mixon had eight carries entering the fourth quarter, and he proceeded to have nine carries on their final drive to ice the game. Finally, Taylor Heinicke scrambled for five yards in the first quarter, and he didn’t run again for the remainder of the game. We got a win with Nick Chubb, but it was just a tough day at the office.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 8
O99.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
I saw this number continue to climb all week, and the logical conclusion would likely be to take the under. However, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry remains illogical when it comes to modern football. While most teams are trotting out committees of running backs while throwing the ball more often than not, the Titans are handing Henry the ball an average of 22 times per game, including 58 times in their last two games.
In his last three games against the Houston Texans, Henry had 250 yards, 212 yards, and 211 yards. This Houston defense has gotten gashed on the ground this year. They’re giving up an average of 164 rushing yards per game, and they most recently got knocked around by Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, who ran 20 times for 143 yards. With quarterback Ryan Tannehill hobbled and possibly inactive, Henry is going to see a healthy workload in this one.
O69.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -113
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown continues to lead his team in targets and yardage while being tied for the team lead in catches. He’s been quite consistent this season, although he hasn’t quite recaptured the magic he had in his Week 1 performance when he had 10 receptions for 155 yards. However, he has gone for at least 67 yards in five of his six games this season, with the lone exception being an off-game against the Arizona Cardinals where he caught three passes on the first drive before failing to catch another ball in the remainder of the game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been beaten up on defense all season, which has been one of the things holding them back. While some reinforcements are coming this week, they will still not be at full strength. They’ve been taken advantage of by opposing WR1s this year, as they’re allowing an average of 87.9 yards per game, and that number is held down by a 42-yard outing by Mike Evans with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown should see his usual workload this week, and I think he makes it 4/7 weeks clearing this mark with just a couple of hooks holding that number down lower.
O65.5 Receiving yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
Jaylen Waddle is one of the fastest players in the NFL and between teammates Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert, they very well might be the fastest trio of players on a team in the league. We’re getting a good number on this one when looking at the matchup. Despite playing one fewer game than many NFL teams, the Detroit Lions have still given up the 17th-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts.Â
Waddle has cleared this mark in five out of seven games this season. In four of those five games, there was a common theme. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played the entirety of those games. Tua and Waddle use the connection they had during their time together in college to a high degree of success in the NFL. This Lions' defense has gotten lit up by wideouts at times this season, and Waddle could add to that this week.
D.J. Moore
O5.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +105
This bet actively terrifies me, but I’m riding with the talent of the player over anything else. Last week, when the offense was opened up for quarterback P.J. Walker, with Christian McCaffrey and Robby Anderson gone, wideout D.J. Moore was the belle of the ball. For just the second time all season, Moore saw double-digit targets while catching a season-high seven passes and 69 yards, along with finding the end zone. Moore had a 45.4 percent target share last week, which I expect to regress, but he still should see a significant workload.
The Atlanta Falcons are also dealing with injury issues similar to the Steelers. Star cornerback AJ Terrell is set to miss this week’s game after missing 57 percent and 88 percent of the snaps in the last two weeks. In those games, opposing WR1s caught 16 passes for 213 yards and four touchdowns. Without Terrell in the lineup, they just have a huge issue at cornerback, and he’s not the only one that is likely to miss this week’s matchup. Even if Moore doesn’t have a high yardage output, I think he should see a high volume of targets.
Davante Adams
O83.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
There were a couple of weeks there when quarterback Derek Carr and wideout Davante Adams couldn’t get on the same page. I think they’ve gotten those issues resolved. After totaling 48 yards on seven receptions in Weeks 2 & 3, Adams has run up 20 receptions for 320 yards over their last three games. Adams has gone for 95 or more receiving yards in each of those three games.Â
New Orleans Saints cornerback Marson Lattimore has already been ruled out for this game, and they’ve lost fellow defensive backs Bradley Roby and P.J. Williams to Injured Reserve over the last month. On the year, opposing WR1s have had their way with the Saints' secondary. Other than the Panthers in Week 3, they have yet to hold an opposing WR1 under 74 yards this season. Adams, with the volume that he sees in the passing game, should have this number firmly within reach.
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