RADIO
Welcome to the Week 15 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Bye weeks have now concluded, but we have a second consecutive 10-game slate this Sunday thanks to the three-game Saturday slate that precedes it. Therefore, we once again have a fairly limited player pool when it comes to scouring for value, but there are still multiple candidates at each position that could pay off handsomely and several site-specific specials, particularly at running back.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Ryan Tannehill, TEN at LAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $23
Tannehill is going to make for a likely low-rostered option Sunday, even for those considering some plays from this specific Titans-Chargers matchup. Plenty will flock to Derrick Henry, considering how impressive he looked early in last week's loss to the Jaguars before the game script helped neutralize him and the fact the Chargers' run defense is highly suspect. However, Tannehill continues to deliver a very solid floor for his salaries and could well be more aggressive through the air than might initially be expected with the Chargers' high-octane offense on the other side and Tennessee desperate for a victory.
Tannehill won't have access to rookie receiver Treylon Burks (concussion) for the second straight week, but the veteran quarterback still manage to get to 19.8 DK/18.8 FD/15.8 Yahoo points without him in Week 14 and has good rapport with the likes of veteran Robert Woods and complementary deep option Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
The Chargers have allowed an impressively modest 219.7 passing yards per home game, but they've done at an elevated 11.5 yards per completion, the third-highest figure in the league in that split. What's more, L.A. is giving up an NFL-high 12.8 yards per completion in the last three games, which could bode well for Tannehill's chances of hitting on some chunk plays, especially with star safety Derwin James (quadriceps) doubtful for the Bolts.
Andy Dalton, NO vs. ATL | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $23
Dalton is another bargain-salaried veteran that could be in the right game environment to overdeliver on his very reasonable salaries in Week 15. Both the Saints and Falcons will be coming off bye weeks, which should result in some refreshed skill-position players and perhaps new wrinkles on offense for each squad. While rookie Desmond Ridder will be under center for Atlanta, it's likely a safe bet the Saints remain aggressive through the air versus a Falcons defense that's both struggled to apply pressure and prevent big plays in the passing game all season.
Atlanta is allowing 271.5 passing yards per road game, along with 10.7 yards per completion and a 71.4 percent completion rate in that split. Dalton has been an unspectacular but steady source of fantasy production during his starting stint and does have a trio of multi-touchdown games, along with 260- and 361-yard tallies along the way. Winston was able to throw for 269 yards and a pair of touchdowns in New Orleans' Week 1 win, and there's certainly a solid chance, given the Falcons' subsequent body of work on pass defense this season, that Dalton could have a similarly productive day.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Mac Jones, NE at LVR | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $22
DK/FD Special: Mike White, NYJ vs. DET | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,000
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Travis Etienne, JAC vs. DAL | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $20
Etienne is almost certainly to be lower-rostered than a few games ago due to a series of modest performances and the popular perception of the Cowboys' defense as impenetrable. While Dallas indeed makes life extremely difficult on opposing air attacks due to its elite pass rush and suffocating coverage, the Cowboys can be run on. Precisely because of their ability to disrupt a passing game, Etienne could very well be handed a hefty workload Sunday after logging 13 carries or fewer in three of his past four games.
However, that light volume isn't indicative of how much head coach Doug Pederson is willing to entrust Etienne with, considering he afforded the second-year back 24 and 28 carries in Weeks 8 and 9. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up 124.2 rushing yards per road game, along with 4.6 yards per carry in that split. With head coach Doug Pederson likely to want to give perhaps his most explosive playmaker as many opportunities as possible versus a dangerous opponent, Etienne could be set to deliver nicely on his salaries.
Zonovan Knight, NYJ vs. DET | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $21
Knight seems to be carving out the largest swath in a crowded Jets backfield, as the rookie logged 19 total touches across 34 snaps in Week 14 despite Michael Carter making a return from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury. Knight has double-digit carries and receptions in each of the first three games of his career, and with averages of 5.0 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per catch, he makes for an excellent value option in a game that could feature a heavy dose of the running game due to weather conditions not exactly conducive to the air attack.
The Lions have been much more effective against the run of late, allowing just 93.7 rushing yards per contest in the last three. However, Detroit is surrendering 157 rushing yards per road contest, along with an NFC-high 5.1 yards per carry in that split. Additionally, the Lions have yielded the second-most rushing touchdowns in the red zone (15), while Knight already has a robust nine red-zone touches in three games. Moreover, the fact Detroit sports respective No. 22 and No. 23 rankings in 2nd Level and Open Field yards allowed per Football Outsiders dovetails nicely with the elite 30.4% broken-tackle rate Knight boasts.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at JAC | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $20
DK/Yahoo Specials: Alvin Kamara, NO vs. ATL | DK: $6,800, Yahoo: $19/ Miles Sanders, PHI at CHI | DK: $6,500, Yahoo: $26/ Isiah Pacheco, KC at HOU | DK: $5,900, Yahoo: $21
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Mike Williams, LAC vs. TEN | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $26
No team has been more generous in allowing wide receiver production than the Titans, and Williams looked back to full strength in Week 14 versus the Dolphins after his two-game absence due to an ankle injury while racking up 116 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. That combination of factors gives him plenty of appeal at his reasonable salaries for Sunday's critical matchup, one in which the Bolts could be right back to a pass-heavy attack similar to the one they deployed versus Miami, considering the Titans are allowing an NFL-low 60.7 rushing yards per road game.
In contrast, Tennessee is surrendering an NFL-high 303.3 passing yards per road game, along with 11.1 yards per completion and a 65.5 percent completion rate in that split. Then, the Titans have yielded the second-most passing touchdowns (25), along with an AFC-high 2,488 receiving yards to wideouts and the second-most touchdowns to the position (18). That's led to the Titans allowing a league-high 43.4 DK/34.7 FD points per game to receivers, and when also factoring in they've yielded 15 red-zone passing TDs and Williams is averaging more than one red-zone target per contest (10 in nine game), he makes for a highly appealing value option.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. ARI | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $18
Jeudy was one of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar values of Week 14, taking full advantage of Courtland Sutton's absence due to a hamstring injury by racking up eight catches for 73 yards and three touchdowns. Jeudy saw a robust nine targets -- his second-highest total of the campaign -- and both Sutton and fellow wideout Kendall Hinton (hamstring) were still not practicing as of Thursday. With the possibility Jeudy has a massive workload again and the Cardinals secondary still hampered by injury, the star wideout could overdeliver on his salaries yet again irrespective of whether he's catching passes from Russell Wilson and Brett Rypien. (UPDATE: Rypien will start)
The Cardinals are giving up a robust 26.8 points per game going into Week 15, and Arizona has allowed 24 passing touchdowns overall on the season. Arizona is also yielding a 64% catch rate to wideouts and the second-most red-zone passing touchdowns (20) in the league. Jeudy has a solid 10 red-zone targets in 11 games and is already laying claim to over 16% of the Broncos' passing game looks while drawing a target on more than 20% of his routes. Both figures should shoot up Sunday, given both Sutton and Hinton are now ruled out.
DJ Moore, CAR vs. PIT | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $16
Moore makes for an interesting tournament play at his extremely affordable salary versus a Steelers secondary that's proven susceptible to big plays all season. Granted, Panthers head coach Steve Wilks has the luxury of two talented running backs in D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard to lean on while trying to protect Sam Darnold from himself under center, but the one-time third overall selection has shown good chemistry with Moore, who's the unquestioned top target of Carolina's pass-catching corps. Moore has already taken 12 of his 46 catches for 20+ yards, making him a good candidate to attack Pittsburgh's secondary with.
The Steelers are allowing 261 passing yards per road game, a split during which they've also surrendered a co-NFL-high 12.0 yards per completion. Pittsburgh has also given up 15 red-zone passing touchdowns, while Moore has become Darnold's most trustworthy target and is already drawing 26.4 % of the team's passing game looks while also drawing a target on 24.3% of his routes. With an average depth of target of 11.9 yards as well, Moore could do damage all over the field at very reasonable salaries, especially if the ground attack softens up Pittsburgh's defense over the course of the game.
ALSO CONSIDER:
George Pickens, PIT at CAR | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $13
DK/Yahoo Special: Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. DET | DK: $6,000, Yahoo: $24
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Greg Dulcich, DEN vs. ARI | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $16
Dulcich is another potential beneficiary of the Broncos possibly being down two receivers, as the speedy tight end is facing a premium matchup against a Cardinals team that's been the most generous to his position overall. Dulcich saw eight targets in Week 14, but he only brought in three of them for 42 yards. However, that was his second eight-target tally, and with an average depth of target of 11.5 yards, he certainly has a lot more upside than plenty of other tight ends and comes with minuscule salaries attached.
Arizona has allowed an NFL-high 86 receptions, 950 yards and nine touchdowns to tight ends, leading to 18.7 DK/15.1 FD points per game surrendered to the position. The Cards are also giving up much more through the air at home as already noted in Jeudy's entry, and Dulcich could also be due for an elevated role with Sutton and Hinton sidelined. Dulcich could also be heavily relied on as a security blanket for fill-in signal-caller Rypien, who worked plenty with him in training camp and preseason.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at LAC | DK: $3,100, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $12
Okonkwo came through handsomely as a value suggestion in Week 14, taking advantage of Treylon Burks' absence due to a concussion to post a 6-45-1 line on six targets. The Titans made good on their vow to give Okonkwo a bigger role with the career-high target tally, and with an average of 15.2 yards per reception, he's the perfect candidate to take advantage of a Chargers defense that's allowed 14.7 yards per reception to tight ends. Okonkwo has barely seen a rise in his salaries on all three sites as well, adding to his appeal and making him a great stacking partner with Tannehill in tournament lineups.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Cade Otton, TB vs. CIN | DK: $2,900, FD: $4,600, Yahoo: $11
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