RADIO
In the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs took a lead against the Titans which forced Ryan Tannehill to pass the ball 31 times, but A.J. Brown still came up small with just 51 yards receiving. In the same game, Tyreek Hill was the Chiefs most productive fantasy-receiver, hauling in 5 passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns, but Sammy Watkins also had a solid day, leading the team in targets with 10, while gaining 114 yards and adding touchdown.
In the NFC Championship game, Davante Adams continued to be the only show in town for the Packers in the passing game, leading the team in targets (11), catches (9) and yards (138). For the 49ers, Kendrick Bourne came up extremely small with just one catch for six yards as the 49ers dominated with their running game. Deebo Samuel led the 49ers in receiving with just 46 yards and zero touchdowns as Jimmy Garoppolo only needed to throw the ball eight times in the game. In summary, between all of the recommendations from Championship Weekend, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams worked out, while A.J. Brown and Kendrick Bourne came up small.
The Super Bowl presents some fairly difficult matchups for all of the wide receivers involved as both secondaries are very talented. There are, however, a few angles to target in this one. The 49ers only gave up 169.2 yards-per-game through the air in 2019, but they primarily play cover-3. The Chiefs will likely have Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill getting vertical with their routes, which should free up pockets in coverage for Sammy Watkins ($10,500 Fanduel / $7,000 DraftKings) to settle in and make a few catches. Watkins hasn't had a great season in 2019, but he's demonstrated the ability to exploit zone defenses at times, which gives him hope to come through against the 49ers.
WR/CB Matchups to Exploit
Tyreek Hill ($12,000 Fanduel / $11,000 DraftKings) figures to see a lot of Emmanuel Moseley in coverage this weekend. Although Moseley has been a good player for the 49ers Defense this season, the fact remains that nobody in the NFL can run with Tyreek Hill, and he always has a chance to get behind the defense and score on a long pass. The 49ers haven't been susceptible to the big plays this season, giving up just 34 plays of 20+ yards which ties them for first in the NFL, but that's largely due to the fact that the 49ers pass rush gets home to the quarterback so quickly. The Chiefs offensive line is better than most and they're healthy. On top of having a solid offensive line, Patrick Mahomes can move in the pocket, and retreat backwards if needed and still get an accurate pass off even if the launch point is 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage. For all these reasons, the Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs can get it done against this stingy 49ers defense, and will likely be their toughest test of the season.
Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson's prices are rather low which makes both of them somewhat appealing. I spent some time trying to figure out which of these lower-end guys will come through this weekend, and it seems like their production is too random to make a confident prediction. Trying to predict when Robinson won't drop the ball is difficult, and Hardman is only playing 30% of the snaps which makes the odds that he scores on a long touchdown rather low. When it's all said and done, I am going to stay away from both Hardman and Robinson this week and focus on building my lineups around Hill and Watkins.
The Chiefs Defense has been very good against the pass this season, giving up just 6.7 yards-per-play which was sixth-best in the league. Kendall Fuller, who primarily plays in the slot, is the only Chiefs cornerback that has given up a catch-rate over 50% on the season and is also the only Chiefs defensive back to surrender a QB-rating higher than 80 when targeted. Knowing that, it appears the way you attack the 49ers secondary is over the middle, against the slot cornerback, not on the outside.
Kendrick Bourne ($7,000 Fanduel / $3,400 DraftKings) has played 53% of his snaps out of the slot this year while Emmanuel Sanders ($7,500 Fanduel / $5,200 DraftKings) plays out of the slot on 35% of the time. Althogh Bourne plays a greater percentage of his snaps out of the slot, Sanders played 513 snaps this season, compared to just 292 for Bourne. Sanders will play more snaps than Bourne in the Super Bowl, and because he will get more opportunities, if I am going to play any 49ers wide receiver this week, it's Sanders. Normally I would lean on Deebo Samuel because of his ability to run after the catch, but none of the Chiefs cornerbacks have surrendered more than 200 yards after the catch this season, and that's where Samuel thrives. George Kittle ($11,500 Fanduel / $8,400 DraftKings) is actually the piece of the 49ers passing game I am going to try to get into my DFS lineups most this weekend because he has a seven-inch height advantage over Tyrann Mathieu who figures to cover him for much of the game.
