Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Thanksgiving Day (11/28/19) - Monkey Knife Fight


Thanksgiving Day means many things but, for our purposes, it means a day full of football and opportunities to play props on Monkey Knife Fight.

It starts with the 5-6 Chicago Bears at the 3-7-1 Detroit Lions. The Lions also happen to be down to their third-string quarterback so this may not be the picture of a beautiful aerial attack.

The second game of the day is more compelling as the 6-5 Dallas Cowboys are still battling to hold the lead in the NFC East and the 8-3 Buffalo Bills are in the thick of the AFC playoff race.

Finally, the 9-2 New Orleans Saints are visiting the 3-8 Atlanta Falcons and that may be a lopsided game but the Falcons have been more competitive over the past month, so maybe they can find a way to keep this game competitive.

It may not be the most compelling slate of games but if you’re going to be watching anyway…here are some angles to consider before making your prop picks for the Thanksgiving Day games.

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

CHICAGO-DETROIT

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Mitchell Trubisky OVER 228.5 PASSING YARDS – Betting on Trubisky has not been a way to get rich this season and he’s averaging just 185.8 passing yards per game. But he threw for a season-high 278 yards last week and the Lions are allowing 275.5 passing yards per game, the third-highest mark in the league.

David Blough UNDER 180.5 PASSING YARDS – With Matthew Stafford and Jeff Driskill injured, the Lions have to turn to Blough, a 24-year-old out of Purdue who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL. The Bears Defense is a tough way to make his first start so it could get ugly.

Marvin Jones UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS – Under normal circumstances, it would be reasonable enough to like Jones on the over because he’s averaging 5.1 receptions per game, but the quarterback situation complicates matters.

RAPID FIRE

Allen Robinson -12.5 receiving yards vs. Kenny Golladay – Although Golladay holds a slight advantage on receiving yards per game (72.0 vs. 69.5), the Bears pass defense is stronger and the uncertainty in the Lions quarterback situation makes it difficult to count on Detroit’s passing production.

Bo Scarbrough -10.5 rushing yards vs. David Montgomery – While the quarterback questions for Detroit may cause some concern when it comes to passing yards, it could also be an advantage for the running game. Scarbrough has run for 153 yards on 32 carries in his first two NFL contests, and while it’s not much of a track record, it’s enough to expect that the Lions will try to get him plenty of touches, if possible. Montgomery has run for 153 yards in the past four games, so he would have to step up his production to keep up with Scarbrough.

 

BUFFALO-DALLAS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Dak Prescott UNDER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though Prescott is averaging 312.1 passing yards per game it’s not going to be easy to take the over this week because he’s facing a Bills Defense that is surrendering 184.3 passing yards per game and 6.0 yards per pass attempt.

Josh Allen OVER 219.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bills quarterback is averaging 214.5 passing yards per game and the Cowboys are allowing 213.6 passing yards per game so it should be an easy under, right? Well, maybe, but in five road games this season Allen has thrown for more than 220 yards four times and the one time he didn’t he finished with 219 passing yards.

Cole Beasley UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS – The former Cowboy has been a solid slot receiver for the Bills but prior to recording six catches last week, Beasley had gone six straight games with four or fewer receptions.

RAPID FIRE

Devin Singletary +26.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott – While Elliott has the longer track record, and perhaps the higher ceiling, Singletary is adjusting nicely to the lead running role for the Bills, averaging 79.5 rushing yards per game in the past four. Elliott does have five 100-yard rushing games this season but has been held under 50 yards in two of the past three games which opens the door for Singletary to keep the total close enough.

John Brown +5.5 receiving yards vs. Amari Cooper – This is a case of going for the consistency of Brown over the up-and-down results from Cooper. Brown is averaging 77.8 receiving yards per game and Cooper is averaging 80.5 per game, so the underdog already makes sense.

 

NEW ORLEANS-ATLANTA

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Drew Brees UNDER 310.5 PASSING YARDS – In the five complete games that he has played this season, Brees has thrown for more than 310 yards three times, though that includes last week when he threw for 311. Over the course of a game, that’s just a few favorable spots. The Falcons Defense isn’t good and an indoor venue is better for Brees, but that is a big number to cover, especially if the Saints get into the lead, as expected.

Matt Ryan UNDER 290.5 PASSING YARDS – While Ryan has averaged 293.4 passing yards per game this season, that number has been dropping as he’s averaged 230.8 passing yards per game in the past four. Combine that with a solid Saints Defense and the under makes more sense.

Alvin Kamara UNDER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS – Coming back from injury, Kamara hasn’t been the explosive force that he was last season and he’s been held under 60 rushing yards in three of his past four games. Some of that is due to usage – he’s not getting as many carries – but that trend could very well continue against a Falcons team that is a little better than average against the run.

RAPID FIRE

Alvin Kamara +4.5 receptions vs. Michael Thomas – While Kamara might not be getting a full workload as a runner, the Saints are still using him a lot as a receiver out the backfield. Since returning from injury, he has 27 catches in three games. As great as Thomas has been this season, he’s not going to cover that number if Kamara stays on his recent pace.

Devonta Freeman -7.5 rushing yards vs. Latavius Murray – Neither is an ideal option. Freeman is dealing with a foot injury and has rushed for more than 40 yards once in the past six games. He’s also going up against a Saints team that is allowing just 88.5 rushing yards per game. Murray was a big running threat when Alvin Kamara was injured but in the past three games he has 103 rushing yards on 22 carries – that’s efficient but not enough volume to like him in this matchup.

 

More Weekly DFS Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Surprises of 2019: Running Back

The 2019 NFL season was an interesting year for the running back position. Christian McCaffrey was the overall RB1, but some of the other top players fell below expectations. That led to some interesting final results when the final season standings came around. And while some of those -- Dalvin Cook as the RB3, Leonard... Read More


Quarterback VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The 2019 fantasy football season is over. That is not something we like to say considering the empty path we have ahead of us until we reach draft season again in eight months. The good thing about it, though, is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few weeks... Read More


2019 RotoBaller NFL Challenge - And The @Fleaflicker Winner Is...

What a season, RotoBallers. Fantasy football is always a fun, interesting, and long season - filled with injuries, breakout players, and different strategies. It takes stamina and endurance to win the marathon, and we're here today to recognize those who pulled it off. With 343 teams - across two divisions - competing to be crowned champ... Read More


Introducing the 2020 Rookie Tight End Class

Out of all the skill positions, tight end is the one where rookies have the most issue making an immediate impact. But there's still always some value at every position in every NFL Draft, and the 2020 one is no exception, even if people are very down on this year's crop of tight ends. Let's... Read More


Can a New Coach Fix Baker Mayfield in 2020?

Another season has passed and another disappointment by Browns fans has been realized. Baker Mayfield got the head coach he wanted in Freddie Kitchens in 2019. In 2020, hopefully he's got the one he needs in Kevin Stefanski. Last season, under Kitchens, Mayfield had a coach he could control and manipulate. He did just that... Read More


Wide Receiver VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The one (and only) good thing about fantasy football season ending is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few months and put performances into context to prepare for next season. As football is an ever-evolving game, though, it makes sense to assess how good players were in fantasy... Read More


The King's Keeper Corner: NFL Postseason Impacts on Player Outlooks

With a break in the postseason NFL action, it is time to reflect on what we have seen in the playoffs so far and how certain performances will affect fantasy football outlooks in keeper and dynasty formats. How players respond and what they deliver at the most intense and critical times of the season can... Read More


Introducing Value Over Starter Football Metrics

When it comes to fantasy sports, we're always looking for the highest possible Return On Investment or ROI. This concept is easy to understand: in both Daily Fantasy and re-draft/fantasy leagues, ROI would come down to how many points a player returns relative to his salary, or the price you paid (given his ADP on... Read More


Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Quarterback

2019 was a very interesting season of fantasy football, to say the least. It's safe to say no one was banking on the season that we saw from Lamar Jackson but he wasn't the only one to stand out. At the quarterback position, we saw some really exciting players start to shine and some older... Read More


Goodbye Runners, Hello Pass-Catching RBs: 2019 Season Trends

As the 2019 summer kept going we all had two things in our minds with regard to September's fantasy drafts and both of them were related to running backs: Where in the world are Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and when will they be back? It made sense back then (and it still does now,... Read More


Where Does 2019 Rank Historically Among ADP Movers?

I have worked on a season-review series of articles in which I have analyzed the biggest winners and losers in terms of ADP entering draft season compared to the end of the year final results. It was plenty of fun looking back at the gambles most of us took which ultimately paid off, but also... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Tight End

2019 was not the record-breaking season for tight ends 2018 was. San Francisco’s George Kittle (most receiving yards for a TE in a season) and Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz (most receptions for a TE in a season) did not break the records they set last season, although both were fine for fantasy players. Kansas City’s Travis... Read More


Rushing Quarterbacks Are Becoming Necessary

The 2019 fantasy season is over. We are all thinking about what to do come 2020 draft day. So let me ask you something. What if I offer you the chance of drafting a quarterback who is a lock to finish the season with 270 fantasy points? Would you take him and make him your... Read More


Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More