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Scott Cullen provides his Thanksgiving NFL DFS prop picks for November 28th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Thanksgiving Day means many things but, for our purposes, it means a day full of football and opportunities to play props on Monkey Knife Fight.
It starts with the 5-6 Chicago Bears at the 3-7-1 Detroit Lions. The Lions also happen to be down to their third-string quarterback so this may not be the picture of a beautiful aerial attack.
The second game of the day is more compelling as the 6-5 Dallas Cowboys are still battling to hold the lead in the NFC East and the 8-3 Buffalo Bills are in the thick of the AFC playoff race.
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It may not be the most compelling slate of games but if you’re going to be watching anyway…here are some angles to consider before making your prop picks for the Thanksgiving Day games.
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CHICAGO-DETROIT
OVER/UNDERS
Mitchell Trubisky OVER 228.5 PASSING YARDS – Betting on Trubisky has not been a way to get rich this season and he’s averaging just 185.8 passing yards per game. But he threw for a season-high 278 yards last week and the Lions are allowing 275.5 passing yards per game, the third-highest mark in the league.
David Blough UNDER 180.5 PASSING YARDS – With Matthew Stafford and Jeff Driskill injured, the Lions have to turn to Blough, a 24-year-old out of Purdue who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL. The Bears Defense is a tough way to make his first start so it could get ugly.
Marvin Jones UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS – Under normal circumstances, it would be reasonable enough to like Jones on the over because he’s averaging 5.1 receptions per game, but the quarterback situation complicates matters.
RAPID FIRE
Allen Robinson -12.5 receiving yards vs. Kenny Golladay – Although Golladay holds a slight advantage on receiving yards per game (72.0 vs. 69.5), the Bears pass defense is stronger and the uncertainty in the Lions quarterback situation makes it difficult to count on Detroit’s passing production.
Bo Scarbrough -10.5 rushing yards vs. David Montgomery – While the quarterback questions for Detroit may cause some concern when it comes to passing yards, it could also be an advantage for the running game. Scarbrough has run for 153 yards on 32 carries in his first two NFL contests, and while it’s not much of a track record, it’s enough to expect that the Lions will try to get him plenty of touches, if possible. Montgomery has run for 153 yards in the past four games, so he would have to step up his production to keep up with Scarbrough.
BUFFALO-DALLAS
OVER/UNDERS
Dak Prescott UNDER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though Prescott is averaging 312.1 passing yards per game it’s not going to be easy to take the over this week because he’s facing a Bills Defense that is surrendering 184.3 passing yards per game and 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
Josh Allen OVER 219.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bills quarterback is averaging 214.5 passing yards per game and the Cowboys are allowing 213.6 passing yards per game so it should be an easy under, right? Well, maybe, but in five road games this season Allen has thrown for more than 220 yards four times and the one time he didn’t he finished with 219 passing yards.
Cole Beasley UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS – The former Cowboy has been a solid slot receiver for the Bills but prior to recording six catches last week, Beasley had gone six straight games with four or fewer receptions.
RAPID FIRE
Devin Singletary +26.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott – While Elliott has the longer track record, and perhaps the higher ceiling, Singletary is adjusting nicely to the lead running role for the Bills, averaging 79.5 rushing yards per game in the past four. Elliott does have five 100-yard rushing games this season but has been held under 50 yards in two of the past three games which opens the door for Singletary to keep the total close enough.
John Brown +5.5 receiving yards vs. Amari Cooper – This is a case of going for the consistency of Brown over the up-and-down results from Cooper. Brown is averaging 77.8 receiving yards per game and Cooper is averaging 80.5 per game, so the underdog already makes sense.
NEW ORLEANS-ATLANTA
OVER/UNDERS
Drew Brees UNDER 310.5 PASSING YARDS – In the five complete games that he has played this season, Brees has thrown for more than 310 yards three times, though that includes last week when he threw for 311. Over the course of a game, that’s just a few favorable spots. The Falcons Defense isn’t good and an indoor venue is better for Brees, but that is a big number to cover, especially if the Saints get into the lead, as expected.
Matt Ryan UNDER 290.5 PASSING YARDS – While Ryan has averaged 293.4 passing yards per game this season, that number has been dropping as he’s averaged 230.8 passing yards per game in the past four. Combine that with a solid Saints Defense and the under makes more sense.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS – Coming back from injury, Kamara hasn’t been the explosive force that he was last season and he’s been held under 60 rushing yards in three of his past four games. Some of that is due to usage – he’s not getting as many carries – but that trend could very well continue against a Falcons team that is a little better than average against the run.
RAPID FIRE
Alvin Kamara +4.5 receptions vs. Michael Thomas – While Kamara might not be getting a full workload as a runner, the Saints are still using him a lot as a receiver out the backfield. Since returning from injury, he has 27 catches in three games. As great as Thomas has been this season, he’s not going to cover that number if Kamara stays on his recent pace.
Devonta Freeman -7.5 rushing yards vs. Latavius Murray – Neither is an ideal option. Freeman is dealing with a foot injury and has rushed for more than 40 yards once in the past six games. He’s also going up against a Saints team that is allowing just 88.5 rushing yards per game. Murray was a big running threat when Alvin Kamara was injured but in the past three games he has 103 rushing yards on 22 carries – that’s efficient but not enough volume to like him in this matchup.
