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Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 7 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
Week 7 of the NFL DFS season is already here. The season is flying by but we're staying one step ahead of the game. We're going to dive into all of the data to get a head start on the Week 7 main slate. Let us not waste any more time!
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 20. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 7 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 6, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 7: Main Slate Only
- Commanders - 30.5
- Bills, Falcons, Lions, Vikings - 26.5
- Packers - 24.5
- Rams - 24.5
- Eagles - 23.5
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Lions - 30.2
- Buccaneers - 29.7
- Commanders - 29.7
- Ravens - 29.5
- Bills - 28.4
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Chargers - 13.2
- Steelers - 14.3
- Vikings- 15.2
- Broncos - 16
- Bears - 16.8
The Washington Commanders come into Sunday's slate with the highest implied team total with 30.5 points. It's hard to root against rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense. The question mark in their offense is the health of Brian Robinson Jr. and whether he will play.
The Detroit Lions come into Week 7 as the highest-scoring offense with 30.2 points per game. They are in a four-way tie for the second-highest implied total of 26.5 points. The backfield will be the "pick your poison" type as stacking Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the starting point of the stack.
The Los Angeles Rams are still short-handed on offense but will be coming into Week 7 fresh off their bye. Kyren Williams will remain a top running back option until the Rams get back to full health. He may come in as chalk but he's the type of chalk you do not want to pass up on.
Ben Johnson's been in the lab 🧑🍳 #DETvsDAL | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/JCSzYrA9qb
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) October 13, 2024
Week 7 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the sample size that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- San Francisco (2) vs. Kansas City (20)
- Detroit (4) vs. Minnesota (30)
- Houston (5) vs. Green Bay (25)
- Kansas City (9) vs. San Francisco (17)
- Washington (13) vs. Carolina (23)
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will have their Super Bowl rematch on Sunday. While the run game from both offenses should be avoided, the passing game should bring fireworks. Both teams have stack-worthy players. However, both teams have an implied total of 23.5 points as this game may not be as action-packed as the Super Bowl was.
Jared Goff is playing amazing football right now and this Detroit Lions offense has reached a new level. Facing the 30th-ranked passing defense of the Minnesota Vikings makes Goff and the Lions a chalk-worthy stack. There will be other spots that are just as good but if playing multiple entries, please have some exposure to the Lions.
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Green Bay (2) vs. Houston (13)
- Washington (5) vs. Carolina (30)
- Philadelphia (6) vs. New York Giants (15)
- Houston (13) vs. Green Bay (8)
- Tennessee (14) vs. Buffalo (26)
With teams going on bye weeks or playing in prime time, the running backs are somewhat slim this week. If Brian Robinson Jr. is healthy, he has the best matchup on paper. If he's not, the easy option after him is his teammate Austin Ekeler.
Saquon Barkley gets his revenge-game narrative on Sunday by facing the New York Giants. The Eagles had a very slow (and steady) win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 6 so who knows how this matchup will go? The New York Giants have a good defense but remain on the field a decent amount. Barkley will most likely tire them out quickly, especially if Daniel Jones can't put together any drives against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Did we stutter?!?!
ALWAYS 👏 OPEN 👏 pic.twitter.com/0U3e2nQzz5
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 13, 2024
2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Cincinnati (Watson), Houston (Love), Washington (Dalton), L.A. Rams (O'Connell), Las Vegas (Stafford)
RB - Buffalo (Pollard), Miami (Sermon), Las Vegas (Williams), Carolina (Robinson Jr./Ekeler), L.A. Rams (Mattison)
WR - Minnesota (St. Brown), Detroit (Jefferson), Washington (Johnson), Philadelphia (Nabers/Robinson), Indianapolis (Hill)
TE - Green Bay (Schultz), Indianapolis (Smith), L.A. Rams (Bowers), Seattle (Pitts), Minnesota (LaPorta)
DEF - MIA (IND), LV (LAR), TEN (BUF), CLE (CIN), NYG (PHI)
The most surprising thing is that the Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders have multiple players popping up in the DvP. We're not saying to rush to them to stack but having some slight exposure to both sides could go under the radar with ownership.
To no surprise, Detroit continues popping up across the board. They will be a popular stack this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta could be the route to go while stacking a lesser-owned stack.
Week 7 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Kenneth Walker III ($7.3K vs. $7.5K)
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($7.2K vs. $7.2K)
- Wan'Dale Robinson ($6.1K vs. $6.6K)
- Terry McLaurin ($6.8K vs. $7.2K)
- Keon Coleman ($5.4K vs. $5.9K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Jayden Daniels ($7.6K vs. $9.1K)
- Brock Purdy ($6.4K vs. $7.7K)
- Malik Nabers ($7.5K vs. $8.3K) - If Nabers plays, hard to pass him up.
- Xavier Worthy ($6.4K vs. $7.3K)
- Tony Pollard ($6.3K vs. $7.1K)
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Mahomes - Smith-Schuster ($11K, $16.9K)
- Purdy - Samuel ($13.4K, $15.9K)
- Goff - Williams ($12.5K, $14.3K)
- Stafford - Atwell ($10.6K, $12.9K)
- Cousins - Mooney ($11.7K, $13.5K)
- Love - Doubs ($12.4K, $14.7K)
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Jayden Daniels ($7.6K, $9.1K)
- Bryce Young ($4.7K, $6K)
- Isaac Guerendo ($6.6K, $6K)
- Jaylen Wright ($5.2K, $5.2K)
- Malik Nabers ($7.5K, $8.3K)
- Xavier Worthy ($6.4K, $7.3K)
- Keon Coleman ($5.4K, $5.9K)
- Xavier Legette ($5.1K, $5.9K)
- Brock Bowers ($5.8K, $7K)
- Erick All Jr. ($2.7K, $4.7K)
Alright, that's it for Week 7 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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