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Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 2 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
Week 1 is in the books for NFL football! We aren't going to waste any time and start hitting the research station for Week 2. Here is your first look at the upcoming main slate for the NFL.
I'll be picking up where we left off last year and continuing the "first look" article. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 15. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Week 1 can get crazy as we think we know what to expect but usually the unexpected does happen. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 2 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points (which usually means fantasy points, too) this week. With it being Week 2, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams who are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Xavier Worthy HAS ARRIVED.
📺: #Kickoff2024 on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/0612BrVxlJ— NFL (@NFL) September 6, 2024
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 2: Main Slate Only
- Chiefs - 27.5
- Ravens - 25.5
- Cowboys - 25.5
- Jaguars - 22.5
- Chargers/Colts/Commanders - 22.5
2023 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Cowboys - 30.1
- 49ers - 28.6
- Dolphins - 27.9
- Ravens - 27.7
- Lions - 27.4
2023 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Ravens - 16.2
- Chiefs - 17.0
- Bills - 18.7
- 49ers - 18.8
- Buccaneers - 19.2
It is no surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs are the highest projected team coming into Week 2's Monday slate. They had 50 total offensive play calls in their Week 1 matchup and did they look quick. It will be scary to see what this offense can do once Marquise Brown returns. We saw the Bengals collapse in Week 1 and to have this as your second matchup, the start of the season will be rough.
The Houston Texans come in as the second-highest projected offense but their matchup is a little more difficult facing the Chicago Bears defense. If Caleb Williams shows his No. 1 overall draft pick skillset, we should see a shootout between the two teams. However, it's hard to pass up stacking C.J. Stroud with any of his weapons no matter who is on the opposite side of the football.
A sneakier stack could be the Jacksonville Jaguars. While they are only projected for 22.5 points, many may try to avoid them as they face the Cleveland Browns. The Dallas Cowboys just had their way with the Browns in Week 1 and I'll take the risk of stacking Trevor Lawrence with a couple of his weapons to get some low ownership for the slate.
Week 2 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on of the 2023 season until we have a more consistent ranking for the 2024 season.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Kansas City (6) vs. Cincinnati (27)
- L.A Rams (7) vs. Arizona (12)
- Tampa Bay (12) vs. Detroit (31)
- L.A Chargers (14) vs. Carolina (3)
- Cleveland (18) vs. Jacksonville (26)
.@CooperKupp for the lead!
📺: @SNFonNBC | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/a7LErOV1wj
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 9, 2024
To start out with the top-5 matchups, I have excluded the New York Giants versus the Washington Commanders. Daniel Jones is not a good quarterback and even with no defenders on the field, he still wouldn't exceed. Kansas City tops off the matchups and once again, we shouldn't be surprised. They will be the most targeted stack in Week 2.
For the Los Angeles Rams matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, we get an exciting divisional matchup. The Rams looked solid against the Detroit Lions and should go toe-to-toe versus Arizona. While Arizona's defense in 2023 was ranked 12th in passing yards allowed, they allowed Buffalo to have their way with them.
Jim Harbaugh's Chargers also get the Carolina Panthers and they were just dominated in Week 1. They may bring some ownership with them but it should still be low enough to make them a solid stack with Justin Herbert and J.K. Dobbins together.
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Pittsburgh (11) vs. Denver (30)
- L.A Rams (12) vs. Arizona (32)
- Indianapolis (10) vs. Green Bay (28)
- Kansas City (17) vs. Cincinnati (26)
- Green Bay (14) vs. Indianapolis (24)
The Pittsburgh Steelers running back duo, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, should have a fun Sunday in store for themselves. Denver is starting off how they ended 2023 when it comes to stopping the run. Just not stopping it at all.
Kyren Williams's snap share should also continue in Week 2 with the Rams taking on the Arizona Cardinals. We expected Blake Corum to dig into his snap share but he was only in on nine kick/punt returns which means Williams stock is shooting to the moon once again.
2023 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Arizona (Stafford), Washington (Jones - Please Don't), Tampa Bay (Goff), Carolina (Herbert), Kansas City (Burrows)
RB - Green Bay (Taylor), Carolina (Edwards/Dobbins), L.A Rams (Conner), Denver (Harris/Warren), Jacksonville (Ford)
WR - Detroit (Evans/Godwin), Washington (Nabers), Indianapolis (Reed/Watson), Jacksonville (Cooper), Baltimore (Adams)
TE - Kansas City (Gesicki), Carolina (Hurst), Dallas (Johnson/Hill/Moreau), Chargers (Sanders), Baltimore (Bowers)
DEF - N.Y. Giants (WAS), CAR (LAC), TEN (NYJ), DEN (PIT), LV (BAL)
These are often referred to as the "flow chart" plays each week. While DvP (like any statistic without context) can be deceiving at times, it's been a staple for DFS players for a long time. There's no promise that these defenses continue to be this vulnerable to these positions. Last year's data is the only concrete data we have to use with no more than training camp reports and a handful of snaps (if that) for most star players.
The flowchart is scattered for Week 2 with many routes for one-offs or even a two-man stack. Pairing Devante Adams and Brock Bowers could be a solid pairing going up against Baltimore. Both would also not bring much ownership with them as more players will be on the Baltimore side.
Week 2 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash game build. Remember that projections are going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, too, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Justin Fields ($7K vs. $5.4K) - Fields is at the bottom of the FanDuel quarterback list. Only 11.94 fantasy points in Week 1 but with another start versus Denver, why not? (Easily)
- Derrick Henry ($7.5K vs. $6.7K)
- Josh Jacobs ($7.1K vs. $6.5K) - No Jordan Love could mean that the Green Bay Packers rely more on Jacobs.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6.5K vs. $6.9K)
- Xavier Worthy ($6.2K vs. $6.1K)
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Matthew Stafford ($6K vs. $7.5K) - Great divisional matchup.
- Brian Robinson Jr. ($5.8K vs. $6.2K)
- Jameson Williams ($5.3K vs. $5.7K) - This could be the year Williams breaks out.
- Isaiah Likely ($4.8K vs. $5.8K)
- George Pickens ($5.8K vs. $6.6K) - George Pickens's route share in this offense is too high to pass up.
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Fields - Pickens ($11.2K, $13.6K)
- Lawrence - Robinson Jr ($10.5K, $13K)
- Mayfield - Godwin ($11.9K, $13.6K)
- Watson - Cooper ($11.8K, $13.4K)
- Goff - Williams ($11.7K, $13.5K)
- Stafford - Kupp ($13.6K, $15.2K)
- Herbert - Dobbins ($11.2K, $14.4K)
If Justin Fields gets the start in Week 2, I'm pairing him with George Pickens and Najee Harris. The stack won't cost much and is a perfect matchup against Denver. You'll be able to fit in studs and not have to worry about punting in too many spots. I will also want to run it back with Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin as the cheaper stack for the Buccaneers. You can't go wrong though with Mike Evans over Godwin either.
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Jayden Daniels ($6.2K, $7.9K)
- Bo Nix ($5K, $6.7K)
- Trey Benson ($5.1K, $4.9K)
- Bucky Irving ($4.9K, $5.3K)
- Blake Corum ($4.7K, $6K)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6.9K, $6.5K)
- Xavier Worthy ($6.1K, $6.2K)
- Malik Nabers ($5.9K, $6.4K)
- Ladd McConkey ($4.9k, $5.7K)
- Xavier Legette ($4.7K, $4.7K)
- Adonai Mitchell ($4K, $5.3K)
- Luke McCaffrey ($3.8K, $4.3K)
- Brock Bowers ($4.4K, $5.3K)
Alright, that's it for Week 2 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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