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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 1 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
Never have I experienced a summer where it doesn't feel like the NFL season is about to begin. We all know why this year feels so different, but regardless, we have football! No one truly knows what to expect, but I think the product on the field is going to take a few weeks to get up to the par we are used to. For that reason, you should tread lightly when placing bets until we see more play out on the field.
- 2020 Season: 0-0
- 2019 Season: 39-38
I'll be bringing you the action all season long. I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at Rotoballer all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and bet responsibly!
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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-305, -7)
O/U: 47
The Cardinals have an obvious addition to their roster in DeAndre Hopkins. Head coach Cliff Kingsbury knew what he was doing by shipping off the oft-injured David Johnson for Nuk, it's a massive upgrade. These Cardinals finished 2019 with the 22nd ranked passing unit, averaging just 217 yards per game (YPG), but now second-year signal-caller Kyler Murray has an abundance of weapons at his disposal and that number should only go up, which in turn "should" improve the scoring output. Defensively, The Cardinals had a top 10 run defense but a bottom-five pass defense based on DVOA in 2019. They made some solid additions but it should be about the same this year.
It's not surprising the 49ers were NFC Champions in 2019, as their offense and defense were both one of the league's best units. They kept several key pieces and added Trent Williams to bolster an already strong offensive line. Jimmy Garoppolo won't blow the doors off of any opponent, but he doesn't need to with a rushing attack that averaged 4.8 YPG. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the league and will utilize all of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and even some Jerick McKinnon. On the defensive front, San Fran had the second-best passing defense by DVOA and they'll need all of that and more to check up this Cardinals offense.
Arizona was 5-1-2 against the spread as visitors with a new head coach in 2019. With a year under everyone's belt in the system and the addition of Hopkins, combined with one of the league's best returning run defenses, the Cardinals might give the Niners more trouble than some might think.
Pick: Arizona +7 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Las Vegas Raiders (-162, -3) at Carolina Panthers
O/U: 47.5
The NFL finally has a team in Vegas, and the Raiders have some interesting players to show for their new fan base. Sure, Derek Carr isn't the most exciting franchise quarterback (hence why they signed Marcus Mariota), but Josh Jacobs is set to really break out and that's who the Raiders are relying on. They averaged just 18.7 ppg on the road a season ago, and the addition of Nelson Agholor shouldn't change much. Defensively, the Raiders had one of the league's worst units, allowing 26 ppg and 354 YPG. They made some moves in the offseason to improve, but nothing noteworthy, so I wouldn't expect much of a change.
Carolina is undergoing one of the bigger transitions in the league this year, as Cam Newton and coach Ron Rivera was shown the door. They brought in Matt Rhule and Teddy Bridgewater to turn things around. This is Bridgewater's first go at being a franchise signal-caller, so it's natural to have second guesses about him running the offense. Then you remember Christian McCaffrey is around, followed by D.J. Moore and it takes a little weight off the quarterback's shoulders. Now if you want to bring up the defense, the Panthers are bad. They were worse at home in 2019 so they made some moves to improve, but again, no one to write home about.
Even with a new quarterback, this Panthers offense deserves more respect. While I'll be the first to admit that I love Jacobs and think I think he can carry them a long way, Carolina is in a better spot here at home. Give Bridgewater more credit than you might think because he has better weapons overall.
Pick: Carolina +3 (-110, Fanduel) 1 unit
Dallas Cowboys (-162; -3) at LA Rams
O/U: 52
It's no surprise to see the Cowboys as favorites for Week 1's Sunday Night Football. After all, they are +1500 to win the big one. Dak Prescott is still fighting for his long-term deal, but this offense averaged 27.1 ppg and about 297 passing YPG in 2019 so it's hard to believe management doesn't want to reward him. Ezekiel Elliott returns from a 1,300 yard, 12 touchdown season, along with receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, and newcomer CeeDee Lamb. This has the makings of one of the best offenses in the game. Defensively, Dallas was middle of the pack a year ago, but they went out and made some splash acquisitions in Everson Griffen, Dontari Poe, and Aldon Smith (who hasn't played since 2015 due to legal troubles). They allowed around 322 YPG and just 20 ppg on the road in 2019.
The Rams offense is already gaining a lot of traction before a game is played and that's on good merit. they averaged 24 ppg and 375 YPG a year ago. Sure, they let Todd Gurley go, but many would argue that benefits the unit. They replaced him with rookie Cam Akers and returners Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson Jr. Jared Goff is an underrated quarterback coming off a down year where he still threw for over 4600 yards. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are a dynamic duo and Tyler Higbee has garnered a lot of attention over the offseason, so look for things to improve this year. Their defense carried a little more weight against the pass than the run in 2019 and they allowed just under 23 ppg.
LA struggled at home in 2019, allowing over 24 ppg and averaging just 22 ppg themselves. Dallas had drastically worse offensive numbers away from Jerry's World last season, averaging just 22 ppg (10 less than at home), but their defense picked up the slack giving up just 20 ppg as visitors. At +/- 3, this spread is tight and for good reason. These offenses are stout and now they each face a defense with prior issues and haven't faced off against a real opponent in since the end of last season.
Pick: Over 51.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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