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Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for the Super Bowl. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Well, we've finally made it to the big one. It's been a long season and honestly once you get to this point, whether you gamble or not, you're ready for a nice little break from football. The fact that that San Francisco and Kansas City are representing their respective leagues should be no surprise to most fans of the league, and we'll have a fun one on our hands to close out a fun year.
- Championship Round Picks: 1-2 (33%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 38-37 (51%)
In just our final week of NFL football (although, hello XFL), we have everything from regular lines to novelty game and player props. There is a little bit of everything for gamblers, whether you're a seasoned vet or a novice looking for something fun to bet on to make the game more interesting. Either way, just because it's the final game of the season doesn't mean that you need to bet your bankroll on one game.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post every game I pick. I'd just like to say thanks to all who have read even once this season. I'm by no means a professional, but I put a good amount of time in my research and hope that I was able to help you enjoy football a little more this year, as well as make some money. Good luck this Sunday and bet responsibly!
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San Francisco at Kansas City (-1.5)
O/U: 54.5
These 49ers made it to the league championship doing exactly what they've done all season, run the football. Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight passes, completing six for 77 yards. Instead, Raheem Mostert went absolutely nuts on the Packers, rushing for 220 yards and four touchdowns, making football traditionalists drool. While Tevin Coleman went down early, Mostert rushing for 7.6 yards per carry was certainly a sight to see, and proved that this offense can support a work-horse back. Defensively, Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, and the rest of the Niners defensive unit are sure to present problems for Kansas City. However, their Super Bowl opponent is hitting on all cylinders right now, so San Francisco will need to do more than just slow down the run.
The Chiefs could not be peaking at a better time. Over an eight game win streak, they've averaged over 31 points per game. Just through their two playoff games alone, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 600 yards with eight touchdowns. Damien Williams has taken the lead role throughout the playoffs, but if not for his two touchdowns in a blowout divisional-round win (three total playoff scores), his 92 yards on 29 carries don't bode much confidence. Mahomes will be feeding Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, or whoever is able to escape the coverage of Sherman and the Niners 2nd ranked DVOA pass defense. On the other side of the ball, KC has held their two playoff opponents to under 100 rushing yards, including a matchup with Derrick Henry. Stopping San Francisco's run game should have been the top priority in the two weeks they've had to prepare.
According to Joe Osborne of Oddshark.com, the Chiefs red-zone TD% is 83% in their last three games, meanwhile their season average was 59%, so KC is surely taking advantage when they get close to the end zone. They're 7-0 straight up over their last seven as a favorite, and they've covered in each of their last eight games. San Francisco lacks overall playoff experience but they haven't shown many signs of struggling and it's gotten them here. They've won their last four and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. However, KC's offense has been just on an absolute tear with plenty of work to go around, which ultimately will give them the edge to win their second Super Bowl.
Pick: Kansas City -1.5 and Over 54.5
Bonus Prop Pick: Coin Toss Result = Heads (-103)
