Nelson Cruz to the Rays - Fantasy Impact

July 25, 2021

The Rays acquired a power bat in designated hitter Nelson Cruz, sending two pitching prospects to the Twins. Michael Grennell examines their fantasy baseball value for 2021 and beyond.

We're less than a week away from the Trade Deadline and the Hot Stove is officially on after the Minnesota Twins traded designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays. Here's how the deal broke down:

Rays receive: DH Nelson Cruz
Twins receive: RHP Drew Strotman, RHP Joe Ryan

With Minnesota sitting 16 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central and only half a game ahead of the last-place Royals, it looks like the Twins are going to be sellers at the deadline as they try to revamp their farm system. Meanwhile, the Rays pick up an immediate impact bat that they will hope can prove to be the difference as they push for their second-straight AL East title. We'll take a look at both sides of the deal, and see what fantasy managers should expect for the second half of this season with Cruz, and in the years to come with Ryan and Strotman.

The Ageless Slugger

I mean my goodness, how long can Cruz keep hitting like this? He just turned 41 on July 1, and right now he's on pace to hit nearly 40 homers this year. If he hits just 15 more home runs, that would mark the seventh time in his last eight seasons in which he hit at least 35 home runs — and the only time he didn't reach that mark was during last year's shortened season in which he only hit 16 home runs in 53 games. He's also still hitting for a high average this year with a .289 mark, while he also is currently posting an OPS over .900 for the sixth time in his last seven years.

As has been the case for Cruz since 2015, his Statcast metrics back up his performance as being legitimate. His .280 xBA is only nine points lower than his actual average, while his .533 xSLG is just one point lower than his actual slugging percentage. Cruz also ranks in the 87th percentile in xBA, while also ranking in the 90th percentile or better in xSLG, exit velocity (93.4 mph), hard-hit percentage (53.9%) and xwOBA (.388).

So yeah, Cruz can still hit the ball pretty well. But how will he do with the Rays? For starters, he could see a slight uptick in RBI and run-scoring opportunities, as the Rays are a slightly higher-scoring team than the Twins, having averaged 4.94 runs per game as opposed to Minnesota's 4.59 runs per game. Along with that, he could potentially see a slight uptick in home runs as well, as the pitching staffs for Tampa Bay's divisional opponents have a combined 1.31 HR/9 rate while the pitching staffs for Minnesota's divisional opponents currently sport a 1.27 HR/9 rate.

Before we talk about what you should anticipate for Cruz in the second half of the season, let's take a quick look at the two prospects that were sent north to Minnesota.

Restocking The Farm

This is a much-needed boost to the Twins' system, as Ryan becomes the fourth-best pitching prospect and No. 6 overall prospect for Minnesota according to MLB Pipeline, while Strotman is now the seventh-best pitching prospect and No. 13 overall in the organization.

I actually just wrote about Ryan in my Hot Prospects to Watch column a couple of weeks ago, and he's a guy that has the potential to reach the majors later this year and make a case for cracking the Opening Day roster in 2022. I wrote that when he was with the Rays, and he still has a good shot at making the Opening Day roster in Minnesota next year — especially with J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda set to hit free agency after this season, along with the very slight possibility that Jose Berrios could be traded. There's quite a bit to like about Ryan, who over three seasons in the minors has posted a 15-8 record with a 2.70 ERA, 0.871 WHIP and 36.7 percent strikeout rate over 217 innings of work.

While he might not have quite the numbers that Ryan has put up in his career, Strotman is no slouch either as he has gone 12-8 over four seasons in the minors with a 3.12 ERA, 1.229 WHIP and 23.2 percent strikeout rate across 179 innings pitched. He had been putting up some of the best numbers of his career this season at Triple-A Durham, going 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.423 WHIP and 24.7 percent strikeout rate in 58 1/3 innings of work. Strotman doesn't have quite as high an upside as Ryan appears to have, but he has the makings of a very solid fantasy pitcher.

Outlook For 2021 And Beyond

So the bottom line with Cruz is that this trade will have minimal impact on his value for the rest of the season. He's been a good hitter with Minnesota and should continue to be a good hitter with Tampa Bay. It's possible that he could end up with a few more home runs, RBI or runs scored with the Rays than he would have had with the Twins, but the difference would likely be negligible. The biggest impact of Cruz joining the Rays will likely be seen with the other position players in Tampa Bay. Guys who have been hitting at the top of the order like Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe will likely see a boost in runs scored, while guys like Yandy Diaz, Joey Wendle and Mike Zunino could see a slight uptick in RBI with Cruz likely hitting ahead of them.

But the biggest impact will be felt by Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Brett Phillips. Meadows had been the team's primary designated hitter, with the Rays swapping guys in and out regularly throughout the outfield. But with Cruz taking over the DH slot, that forces Meadows to move back to left field, which will force Arozarena over to right. That leaves one spot for Kiermaier, Margot and Phillips to fight over. The reality is that all three of these guys were really only relevant in deeper formats, with Margot providing the most fantasy value of the trio this year. Margot had been the team's primary right fielder this season, and while he has played a few games in center this year, it seems more likely that Kiermaier will continue to see the bulk of playing time in center for his defense.

Now as for the two new Twins prospects, neither one should have any value in fantasy in 2021. Managers in redraft leagues can pretty safely ignore both of them, however if Ryan or Trotman gets called up for a spot start late in the year, they could be worth considering as a matchup-dependent streaming option. They'll more likely make an impact in redraft leagues in 2022, with Ryan being the guy that would likely put up the better numbers. Managers in dynasty leagues will want to try and acquire either one of these pitchers, as they are not too far off from the majors.

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