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Leo assesses fantasy basketball value on hot streaking NBA players in Week 12.
Hey folks, this is your weekly heat check—here to warm you up from this cold winter weather. The Christmas games are festive fun and the new year brings new extraordinary performances. We saw some scintillating games throughout the week that we’ll try to break down for you.
We’ll look at some surging players and make educated guesses on whether their recent level of play is sustainable or not. Then we’ll suggest some trades that we think offer realistic fair value in return for these hot streaks.
Let’s get started with some players that have been heating up in Week 12.
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NBA Heat Check
Marquese Chriss, PF, Phoenix Suns
Marquese Chriss has shown flashes of potential throughout his short time in the pros. His inconsistency makes him frustrating to own, but his upside is unquestionable. For example, on Tuesday he posted a juicy stat line of 17 points with three makes behind the arc, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks, one of which clinched the game for the Suns with the clock winding down. That game capped off a surprisingly consistent five-game streak where he averaged 12.2 points on 60% from the field, 1.8 three-pointers, 8.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 blocks. The only other time the Chriss has managed to string together more than a few good games was near the end of last season, when he managed 15.5 points, 1.4 threes, 7.2 boards, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks over ten games. It’s hard not to get excited at an upside like that, but he definitely hasn’t figured it all out yet.
The only other player behind him in the depth chart is fellow second year player Dragan Bender, who has been struggling all over the floor this season. They were in a timeshare earlier in the season, with both averaging exactly 20.9 minutes this year. But Chriss has been trending up, averaging 25.5 minutes over the past seven games. Nevertheless, it seems like the coach has no issue going with the hot hand, so Chriss will be an easy drop if he starts trending down again. You might be able to find an owner that wants to sell low on Markieff Morris in exchange.
Dario Saric, PF/SF, Philadelphia 76ers
After starting the season very slowly, second-year player Dario Saric poured in a season high 27 points with 4 threes on New Year’s Eve, along with 4 boards, 2 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block. He took a back seat to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid early in the year, but he’s managed to carve out the fourth highest usage rate on the 76ers as the team has progressed this season. Over the past 10 games, he’s averaged 13.2 field goal attempts, resulting in 18.5 points per game. He’s also chipped in 7.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game over that same span. Most surprising, though, is his 4.0 assists per game which is a large improvement over his career of 2.4 per game. If Saric is able to keep that up, he’ll become even more valuable than the top-50 player he is now.
The pending return of Markelle Fultz is definitely a cause for concern. The Sixers will likely ease him back slowly into the lineup, but his usage rate was a very high 21.2% in the four games he played. There’s a high potential for change in Saric’s great numbers if Fultz is able to live up to the expectations he had coming into the season. Regardless, that’s not reason enough to trade Saric. But if you’re looking to land a different player, you’ll find similar value in Trevor Ariza or Gary Harris.
Evan Turner, SG/SF, Portland Trailblazers
Evan Turner has come a long way down from his 17.1 points per game during his stint with the 76ers four years ago. He showed flashes of Sixth Man of the Year potential afterwards in Boston, but has been relatively disappointing in Portland. But he scored a season high 22 points on Monday with 4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1 steal. Then he followed that performance on Tuesday with 15 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 block. The 14 shot attempts in both games are the second most he’s taken all season. Superstar teammate Damian Lillard was out for Monday’s game, but Turner still managed a great line after Lillard came back on Tuesday.
Turner’s ceiling is mostly as an end of bench streamer in deeper leagues while he’s able to stay hot. The best example of this potential is the last seven games of last season, where he averaged 9.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.9 blocks. Those are valuable contributions that can push a team over the edge, but of course it’s a very small sample size. He’s worth keeping an eye on but realistically, he’ll eventually go back to being waiver wire fodder in standard leagues. If you have a league mate willing to shell out for a short-term streamer, Larry Nance Jr. and Kyle Anderson might be good targets who could offer longer lasting value.
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