RADIO
A nine-game slate this Friday opens up the weekend with seven interconference matchups. Between Cavaliers-Hornets and Raptors-Hawks, there are plenty of playoff implications on the line and we are going to see these specific matchups quite a few more teams before the season concludes.
Atlanta is down a 0-1 in their series against Toronto, but this will also be the first time Trae Young lines up against this backcourt. Coming off of 43 points, the Raptors guards, albeit unwillingly, will allow him the opportunities needed to keep the momentum going. For the Cavaliers and Hornets, both teams are missing key players, so this will be a great game to invest in role players playing significantly increased roles.
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CHI @ IND
Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 24.5 Points – Oshae Brissett (IND) MORE 5.5 Rebounds
Scroll slightly to the right and you’ll find a great bet that is absolutely hindered by injury tags. Zach LaVine only managed to score 15 points on 10 shots against the Raptors, ultimately deferring the offense to DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. LaVine wasn’t forcing the attempts against tight defense and the Bulls barely lost. The Pacers are an entirely different defense and the shots should come much easier from the outside.
With the Bulls still lacking size outside of Vucevic, rebounds are going to flow freely among the few Pacers that actually focus on that type of production, Domantas Sabonis, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson. When healthy, Brissett has been grabbing at least six rebounds and the last time he has grabbed five rebounds or less came against the Suns and Sabonis wasn’t playing. Surprisingly, Sabonis being available doesn’t have a huge impact on Indiana’s hustle players.
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BOS @ DET
Jayson Tatum (BOS) OVER 26.5 Points – Jerami Grant (DET) OVER 19.5 Points
Jerami Grant has only been back for two games and he’s already hit 20-points once. That’s great news for someone fresh off an injury and the amount of shots he’s taking is extremely promising when his over is still set for just 19.5 points. The Celtics defense is anchored by Robert Williams, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart, all three who will struggle, in some way, to deal with Grant’s length, speed, or spacing.
Similarly, the Pistons defense usually comes down to hoping opponents miss shots, but at least the effort is there. Jayson Tatum has been, almost literally, running through teams and even with a few Pistons returning to the rotation, it takes a team effort to stop Tatum and the Pistons aren’t that team just yet. When Tatum gets to the rim he scores and he’s been making some of the best frontcourts look like college teams lately.
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ATL @ TOR
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 25.5 Points – Fred VanVleet (TOR) MORE 22.5 Points
Fred VanVleet is the bigger concern here with his offensive production focusing more on assists and involving teammates lately, and he hasn’t scored over 22 points in a game since mid-January. If the Raptors had been dominant during that stretch, then maybe the inconsistent offense would be understandable, but for someone taking nearly 20 shots a game, VanVleet is barely averaging 19 points over the last week. If there’s a game where he’ll have his best chance, it’ll come against Trae Young.
That doesn’t mean Young is going to be stuck playing defense on VanVleet all game. Trae Young playing defense all game will never be the case and you can bet that he will be the one setting the scoring precedent here. This is the second time the Raptors will be facing the Hawks on the second night of a back-to-back, not to mention this is Atlanta’s fourth game in six days. If Young plays, there’s no reason why scoring 43 points last night would hold him back tonight.
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CLE @ CHA
LaMelo Ball (CHA) MORE 21.5 Points – Evan Mobley (CLE) MORE 17.5 Points
This is a terrible bet because of how easily both of these players hit the under on a regular basis, but rarely does that mean they had a bad game. LaMelo Ball lives for scoring between 10-19 points, but clearly any extra usage means his upside multiplies. Ball has the ability to produce against any team, but he doesn’t like to just start pulling shots when it’s going to be detrimental to the team winning, and since his shooting isn’t entirely that efficient. However, as long as the Hornets are missing players, Ball is going to see high-usage and he’ll at the very least take the attempts needed to hit 20 points, as demonstrated by his last five or six games.
For someone who focuses on defense and plays alongside another strong defender like Jarrett Allen, acquiring stats consistently can be tricky. It’s rare that Evan Mobley will put up minimal stats on any given night, but trying to find a trend on players that are looking to box out, close out on shooters and make other winning plays, can be frustrating. Especially in situations where it seems like their usage should increase. After scoring 29-points against the Rockets last game, it’s hard to shake the four-point, seven-attempt outing against the Pelicans.
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