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Massive 12-game slate Friday launching us into a weekend that will feature a total 12-games, eight Saturday and four Sunday. We can make the most of tonight by linking together massive parlays around superstars that are playing well and some of the point totals tonight are already fairly high. Nothing off the charts, and the four games we would prefer to focus on this article all have point totals of at least 227.5. Unfortunately, even with the late publishing, not all the games have been posted.
With the amount of talent playing tonight, checking out the All-Day slates and simply hitting the over on players like Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Ja Morant, Jayson Tatum, and Donovan Mitchell isn’t a terrible strategy. With how well these players have been playing, their defensive matchup doesn’t matter nearly as much as their current trend. All seven of those players can hit 30-points on any given night and recently they have been doing so. Putting a couple dollars on the optimism of their continued upward trajectory won’t hurt.
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CHA @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 28.5 Points – Kelly Oubre (CHA) MORE 18.5 Points
Not how we want to start off the night, but when the Hornets aren’t fully healthy, Kelly Oubre tends to pick up the slack, whether he produces or not is another question. He just needs to put up 20-points, which is no easy feat, but for someone who is looking to take upwards of 15 shots on any given night, especially when they have the green light to do so, it’s hard to just assume they will flop. Oubre has posted massive nights in the past, but none so far this season. His usage is staying consistent, so with the sheer amount of shots he’s taking there’s little reason for Oubre to hit the under, but he’s also only scored over 18-points twice this season.
The Charlotte Hornets have Dennis Smith Jr. at point guard with a supporting cast of Jalen McDaniels, Kelly Oubre, and P.J. Washington. Add 25-minutes from Mason Plumlee at center and you can easily see the upside for every aspect of Ja Morant’s game. There will be no one to guard him and none of those players can protect the paint against the aggressive nature of Morant’s offense. Morant has been very up and down this season and only scored 22-points last game on some inefficient shooting. The Grizzlies still won but you can be sure Morant is going to make the most of this favorable matchup.
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MIL @ MIN
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 32.5 Points – Anthony Edwards (MIN) MORE 22.5 Points
Only Luka Doncic is rivaling Giannis Antetokounmpo for most productive player in the league right now and both of their impressive seasons have been carried by their incredible scoring. There is no defense that can stop Antetokounmpo, although Rudy Gobert will do his absolute best to try and meet him at the rim. Gobert is a great defensive weapon when he’s not running up against someone that is just as big with better coordination and a much better vertical.
Anthony Edwards is in a similar situation running up against Antetokounmpo and he’ll need to be hitting his shot from the outside if he wants to hit the over tonight. The Bucks are the best team in the league, propelled by one of the best players in the league and nothing comes easy for their opponents. Edwards has been carrying the scoring workload for the Timberwolves lately, but that doesn’t mean he’s subject to bad games. He’s scored under 22-points just three times this season, with two of those contests being against the Spurs, a team he also had his season-high against.
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MIA @ IND
Tyler Herro (MIA) MORE 21.5 Points – Tyrese Haliburton (IND) MORE 18.5 Points
As long as Tyler Herro is playing a full workload, you pretty much have to take all his overs. He does so much for the Heat that whether they like it or not, his hands are all over the game. If he’s going to be the focal point of the offense, you can take this over bet until it reaches 23.5 or so points before it becomes too risky. Herro is clearly going to score and he rightfully has the trust of the team, being one of the few players capable of high-usage and taking a ton of shots. Clearly the Warriors have his number, so despite those few games altering his projections and game log, Herro should be set for a big game against this Pacers defense.
Similarly, until Jimmy Butler returns to the lineup, this Heat defense is a house of cards ready to collapse each night. They have a strong defensive backbone with Bam Adebayo, but the rest of the rotation is fairly small and needs to make up for that lack of size with scoring. They’ll be able to push everything in Adebayo’s direction defensively, and most the Heat guards and forwards are capable of generating steals, but players like Tyrese Haliburton know how to use their body and will use their size to his advantage. The Pacers might not be a talented team, but they have the size the Heat don’t and could cause trouble if Adebayo is left without any help. It speaks a lot that Haliburton’s assists prop isn’t available, seeing how it would bet the best bet in this article.
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LAC @ SAS
Paul George (LAC) MORE 25.5 Points – Keldon Johnson (SAS) MORE 22.5 Points
It’s hard to say what is more incredible. The fact that Paul George and Keldon Johnson’s point projections are so close given their reputation, or the fact that Johnson looks like the first Spurs player worth betting on since David Robinson. As long as these players are scoring, the fact that both are sitting at point totals at 26-points and 23-points seems like a nearly automatic bet. The only downside here is that Johnson will have to go up against George’s defense and the fact that George will have to go up against a Popovic-coached team, adding in variables we didn’t even know existed.
As long as Kawhi is out, you have to bet on George to produce. He’s built a career around it and just because he hasn’t played well in the playoffs his entire career doesn’t mean he can’t show-out against a few young Spurs on a random November night. The same can be said for Johnson except instead of showing-out, he will simply out-hustle anyone trying to take over this game. The point total for this game isn’t anything outrageous, but it’s still a game worth checking out because of how well these teams matchup at this current time.
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