RADIO
Eight games total Friday with Monkey Knife Fight having five games posted so far. Our options are semi-limited for the time-being, but there’s always going to be potential with four games projecting a point a total of over 230 points. Focusing on these four games makes our job easier and the pace of those games will be one of the more important factors in making sure the right people produce. We are still waiting on King-Lakers to be posted, so it’s looking like we might substitute Knicks-Pistons for that, since the point total for that game is 225.
There are plenty of big-names in big-games tonight, so don’t feel like you have to force a wager on someone that might seem risky. Wait for the right opportunity and trust your gut if you are unsure. Between the Lakers and Kings, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis should have monster nights if any of the Lakers big three won’t be suiting up.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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DEN @ BOS
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 29.5 Points – Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 24.5 Points
When you have two players with open-ended matchups, where the opposing team has to simply hope they have a bad game, that’s great for bets on Monkey Knife Fight. When we have no choice but to take the players offered and go with the over or under, it’s easy when you know it should be a high-scoring game and both defenses struggle to contain, specifically, what they are facing tonight. Both Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic, (according to BasketballMonster.com) are neck-and-neck for production value this season. Tatum has been doing his work by scoring, and until he consistently starts scoring under 30-points, you have to like any wager that puts him at 29.5-points or lower. Although last season proved he can be streaky, Tatum has yet to score under 23-points yet this season.
Rather than points, Jokic has been productive through everything else. Just missing out on a current triple-double average, Jokic’ has only hit his current over-projection four times this season out of a total 11 games. Two of those occurrences happening in the first two games of the season. From how everything is looking, Jokic’ supporting cast is doing more than their fair share and the reigning-MVP has no problem letting them carry the workload. Since the Celtics are fairly adept at defending opposing guards, this could be a game where Jokic is forced into chasing a 30-point game.
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DET @ NYK
Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 21.5 Points – Cade Cunningham (DET) MORE 20.5 Points
‘If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it’ is the current Knicks motto. Realistically, it’s been their motto for the past decade because they haven’t been able to put together a team good enough to win games outright. Abusing the hot-hand night-in and night-out eventually makes the well run dry, but if the Knicks organizations cared about longevity, 99% of the decisions that have been made over the past 20 years wouldn’t have happened. As long as Julius Randle is playing well, they are going to funnel usage his way. The Pistons defense is pretty bad outside of one or two players, so Randle has his work cut out for him
Although there might not be a ton of defensive skill within the Knicks roster, the energy from younger players can make it difficult to play against. In the first matchup of the season, the Pistons were blown out and Detroit’s shooters, not named Saddiq Bey, couldn’t find their rhythm. After an embarrassing outing against the Celtics, Cade Cunningham needs to bounce back with a positive performance. Scoring four points on 11 shots in a game where you needed to score is not for the mentality of a young player. He has to find a way to break out of his shooting woes before it becomes a serious slump.
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MIN @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 30.5 Points – Anthony Edwards (MIN) MORE 23.5 Points
Looking at Ja Morant’s game log, there’s no consistency whatsoever although he’s been putting up at least 20-points in his last three games. Not an impressive feat, but when we bet on Morant, we need him to have a solid all-around. He’s not exactly a playmaker that prefers to involve the offense, so everything is going to be more dependent on how well he is shooting that night. Since he should have no problems finding his shot, expect him to test Rudy Gobert at the rim, but not force the issue if he doesn’t have to.
For Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves have needed a consistent scorer that can open up lanes and windows of opportunity for teammates. The problem is, Edwards has yet to score over 20-points in his last three games. Usually a slump for a player of this caliber means that the rebound is coming, but when the rebound is two or three games late, there’s reason for concern. The Grizzlies defense doesn’t have the tools to stop Edwards, but it seems he’s doing that just fine by himself. There’s no reason for him to have another bad game, but recency bias does not have him hitting the over tonight.
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CLE @ GSW
Steph Curry (GSW) MORE 29.5 Points – Donovan Mitchell (CLE) MORE 27.5 Points
Before addressing the part where he’s only played one game, seeing a 47 next to Steph Curry’s last week average will cause a double-take. Of course, it’s because he’s only played that one game, but the number is more representative of his role within the offense anyway. There is no point total safe when Curry is hitting, but that’s obvious and it’s looking more and more like this is just how the Warriors will have to function, relying on Curry every step of the way and watching him put up more un-real stat lines.
Donovan Mitchell is on a MVP-esque run, surpassing at least 30-points in five out of his last six games, scoring 38+ points in three of those contests. The fact his projected is 27-points might be a testament to the Warriors defense…five years ago. Golden State is not putting out a pretty product on either end and Mitchell should take full advantage of that like he has to the last seven defenses he has faced.
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