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With the first game of the season, there’s going to be significantly more ‘false-potential’ tonight compared to any other. There are no trends to base recent performances off of and public opinion is likely to sway in whatever direction the wind is being blown that day. Monkey Knife Fight is going to offer every bet under the sun in hopes that you chase ambition and don’t do enough research. You’ll notice some of the later games feature some veteran teams and shifting dynamics, making it easy to target certain defenses and predict what offense will come of what. That being said, to start last season, Damian Lillard didn’t have a 25+ point game until his fifth game of the season and still averaged 28 PPG last year. Try not to get caught up too much when some of these bets focused on specific players don’t pan out. It’s somewhat planned.
It’s convenient that with the later-than-scheduled publishing of this article, it would only focus on the games near the end of the night, but there aren’t many quality options featured in the earlier games. Being the season debut offers enough variance where we don’t need the added risk of hoping R.J. Barrett and Jalen Green can go off for at least 23 points tonight. However, that doesn’t mean that players like Bradley Beal, Buddy Hield, Cade Cunningham, and Cole Anthony won’t have good games. All those players you can safely bet on, but their teams are just wildly inconsistent at an inopportune time to make bets. Until we see what role they are playing in the offense, there’s no sense in wasting money on what ‘might-should’ happen. The key here is to look for weak spots in depth charts where you can trust usage will be flowing. For example, LaMelo Ball being out guarantees Terry Rozier will be the primary ball-handler in Charlotte’s offense.
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CHA @ SAS
Terry Rozier (CHA) MORE 37.5 Fantasy Points – Jakob Poeltl (SAS) MORE 35.5 Fantasy Points
Jakob Poeltl was not a stranger to double-digit rebound games, just like Terry Rozier wasn’t a stranger to carrying the Hornets offense when they needed him. Both of the projected fantasy point totals are obtainable, especially when comparing them to the rest of the contests offered for both of these players. Keldon Johnson will be a staple of the offense, but the Spurs system is what it is for a reason and you have to understand what you are doing when betting on Spurs guards. Usually the big men understand their role as rebounders and enforcers, so after Poeltl’s drastic improvement last season it’s easy to buy into him starting off the season picking-and-rolling and pushing the issue at the rim on both sides of the ball.
Whenever LaMelo Ball has been out, the Hornets supporting cast has held their own. Led by a mix of Terry Rozier’s late game composure and playing off the hot-hand has ended in mixed results, but we generally know where the Hornets are going to focus their offense. Rozier is lined up against a backcourt of Tre Jones and Devin Vassell with rookie Jeremy Sochan anchoring the paint alongside Jakob Poeltl. There’s upside all over this game, but rarely do young defenses figure things out the first game of the season, so that’s an easy target.
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DEN @ UTA
Jordan Clarkson (UTA) MORE 18.5 Points – Aaron Gordon (DEN) MORE 5.5 Rebounds
The Utah Jazz have made massive changes to their roster and if you haven’t had the chance to see their current projected roster of, Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Kelly Olynyk, then maybe this wager will make more sense with that information. The main concern here should be Aaron Gordon’s rebounds, only because the Jazz’s offense is clearly going to have to resort to subbing in Jordan Clarkson sooner rather than later. The Nuggets are finally healthy, but that doesn’t mean their backcourt is well-equipped to handle what Clarkson brings to the table, especially with him projected to continue coming off the bench where he thrives.
Even if Utah manages to slow down the pace of this game despite not having the same personnel as last year, Denver should have no problem scoring with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic both healthy. Unless Kelly Olynyk goes off from the start, Clarkson is going to be featured throughout this game and the Nuggets bench backcourt is notoriously bad at defense. There is massive potential here and Gordon being the risk and only needing six rebounds is a good thing. I’ll come to regret this statement when Michael Porter Jr. comes in and steals every rebound Gordon and Jokic are working so hard to box out for.
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POR @ SAC
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 23.5 Points – De’Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 23.5 Points
The fact that both of these players have the same projected point total is slightly concerning, but there’s little reason for either to come up short. Granted, that is the kiss of the death, but the Trail Blazers backcourt defense has always had its struggles and that works in favor for a speedy guard like De’Aaron Fox. Right before the Kings started their tank, Fox was putting up serious numbers after a slow start to the season. Now that he is surrounded by a more capable team that has weapons in both the frontcourt and backcourt, we should expect games like what we saw back in March.
If it takes a team to stop De’Aaron Fox, it takes an entire city to stop Damian Lillard. Sacramento’s defense hasn’t entirely improved with Domantas Sabonis being the main threat there, so that gives players like Jerami Grant a fairly easy introduction to trying to adapt to playing with new players. Jusuf Nurkic should see the biggest benefit with this matchup and if you are looking to squeeze in a bet with a few more players, this is the one to target since Lillard, Josh Hart, Grant, Nurkic, Fox, and Sabonis all have a ton of upside. No starters should be fighting for minutes the first game of the season and neither team has that defensive specialist that can alter the trajectory of a high-scoring game.
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ORL @ DET
Cade Cunningham (DET) MORE 21.5 Points – Cole Anthony (ORL) MORE 15.5 Points
Coming back around to the earlier slate, it’s easy to see why this wager specifically could go both ways for both players. First, we’ll start with the easier decision. Cade Cunningham is clearly the go-to player in this offense and they have added some artillery to his arsenal. Cunningham is one of the few younger players that is willing to pass when the time is right, but as last year progressed he learned the benefit of being selfish. He used the fact that he could pass to his benefit in that he always kept that door open if he needed it, rather than utilizing it the second it opens up. He managed to take the game into his own hands and become a player a defense can’t stop without a double-team. His scoring isn’t really up for debate as much as Cole Anthony’s overall impact on this offense.
With Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner showing flashes of what makes them so valuable, Anthony’s need to produce in this offense drops staggeringly. Last season, he was viewed as a primary scorer and now it’s likely he’ll be asked to pass out of more situations than not unless he’s hitting his shot that night. He proved the ability to score, but the Magic have added other options and it will be Anthony’s job to get them involved as much as he can. His playstyle doesn’t allow him to sacrifice all his scoring, but it’s hard to want to take the gamble on him tonight when so much has changed in direct proportion to his role.
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