RADIO
Mock drafts remain an integral piece of fantasy baseball prep in 2023. Some of RotoBaller’s top minds joined up for a 12-team 5x5 Roto mock draft over on Fantrax.
I’ll be delivering a round-by-round breakdown of the draft and highlighting some noteworthy picks along the way. Then I'll point out some trends, including how third base was treated, how many closers went by round, and when the last presumed starter at each hitting position was taken.
It’s important to note that since this draft took place, a lot of major things have happened that will have a big impact on drafts moving forward. I’ll do my best to note those instances as we go. Also, when referring to ADP, I am going to be referring to NFBC ADP from 12-team drafts ranging from Feb. 1-22 (60 Drafts). It's the most robust source at this time of year and provides a nice external comparison for a draft hosted on Fantrax. Let's kick it off with what you want:
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The Board
Notable Picks from Rounds 1-10
Round One
Pick 1.01 - Jose Ramirez: There is plenty of jockeying within the top half of a 12-teamer’s first round, but Jo-Ram is the only third baseman at the party. As a result of this and the hot corner’s overall scarcity, he remains a viable first pick. The thumb injury torpedoed his second half but he should be 100% for 2023 and could press for a 30/30 season with the new rules.
Pick 1.07 - Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani would be royalty in a daily format, but this is weekly so he slides a bit. (Always confirm your league settings before the draft!) He went 1.01 in last year’s mock under daily rules and his electrifying 2022 campaign at the dish and on the mound won’t have changed that. If you can draft *one* Ohtani and shuffle him between UT and P on a daily basis then he is a legitimate nine-category contributor. If not, then just be ready to make some tough decisions.
Pick 1.10 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Yes, I will talk about my pick. The Jays are set to be more aggressive on the basepaths in ‘23 under John Schneider but real ones recall Vladito started running last year once Schneider stepped in. It’s easy to get swept up in the next big thing and forget that he’s only turning 24 in March. It is unlikely we’ve seen his peak. And I anticipate the wall changes to be neutral given the tradeoff of wall height for distance.
Round Two
Pick 2.05 - Gerrit Cole: I’d do a jig if I knew I could score Cole in the middle of the second round. He and Corbin Burnes (who went 1.12) usually go hand-in-hand so that’s some nice value. Before you tell me that I had my chance to take him and didn’t…yes, taking Guerrero did mean I had to prioritize speed in the second, so I went with Witt. ATC Projections have Cole's 244 strikeouts leading the majors and only 13 arms hitting the 200 mark.
Pick 2.06 - Fernando Tatis Jr.: Tatis is likely the most polarizing early-round pick you can find for 2023. Just 24 years old, Tatis most recently gave us 42 home runs and 25 steals in 130 games before recurring subluxation of his left shoulder ended the party. Then a wrist injury and PED suspension wiped his 2022 season out completely.
He’s eligible to return on April 20 and then we’ll see if he can be one of the lucky ones to return from shoulder surgery with an unhindered swing. And if he adjusts well to sliding feet first. Or if the PEDs really fueled the numbers. Still, a 50/30 ceiling is on the table and that’ll keep his draft stock high.
Fernando Tatis Jr's career 162-game pace:
180 hits
125 runs scored
116 RBI
48 HR
31 SB
.292/.369/.596
.965 OPS
160 OPS+
8.0 WARGenerational talent. Can't wait to watch this guy play baseball this year. pic.twitter.com/0UROtPKd9r
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) February 17, 2023
Round Three
Pick 3.02 - Marcus Semien: This is one of my favorite picks to score in the third if I have an early draft slot. We saw Semien at his worst to open the 2022 season before regaining elite status from mid-May on. Texas is investing plenty in their 2023 roster and he should threaten 200 R+RBI with 50 HR+SB yet again.
Also, he’s played in at least 159 games in five of his last six seasons (not counting 2020, of course). Durability and production atop a growing lineup at the keystone are sweet. I won't be shocked seeing him creep up like this (Feb. NFBC ADP: 35, Pick 26 here) and I've got no problem buying some helium.
Pick 3.03 - Mike Trout: Do you dare take the 31-year-old phenom coming off of a back issue? Even a dinged Trout produced 40 home runs in just 119 games (!) last year. But he’d played in just 36 contests in ‘21 and we haven’t gotten more than 140 games from him since 2016. We aren’t quite in Mickey Mantle’s what-if territory, but it’s on the radar.
One of few who boasts legitimate 50-homer power, Trout is an exciting gamble in the second or third round for those with a plan. If that plan includes having Ronald Acuna Jr. and Pete Alonso already then bully for you! His February ADP on NFBC is 19.77, so pick 27 is a nice get.
Round Four
Pick 4.01 - Corey Seager: Seager has surely graced every article you’ve read about the upcoming shift ban. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello went through the Statcast data and found Seager could’ve gained back 20 hits with the new rules. Seager pulled 21 more ground balls into the shift than anyone else in ‘22. But he also clobbered a career-best 33 home runs. And he did hit above .305 in both 2020 and ‘21.
A career .317 BABIP shouldn’t be punished hard for last year’s .242 mark. He doesn't need new rules to enjoy a little positive regression. The homers didn't come via some huge spike in fly-ball rate. He should have a happy 2023! That said, I'm likely not in at the 3/4 turn in 12-teamers. I'm near my limit with the Feb. NFBC ADP of 53.
Pick 4.03 - Spencer Strider: You’ll get plenty of my picks because I know I can break down my thought process. Deal with it. Strider is starting to catch draft helium as folks prioritize a maximized K/9 with Atlanta’s stellar bullpen in support.
His whiffs weren’t inflated by the early relief appearances, as his K-rate only went from 38.9% as an RP to 38.1% as a starter. And his K-BB% improved from 27.4% to 30.3%. I get the risk, as it’s a small track record with a big price tag. But few can supply elite ratios and strikeouts like Strider, and the remaining SPs could have considerable risks attached (Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer).
Round Five
Pick 5.05 - Julio Urias: Here’s another polarizing player for you. Some point to his sabermetrics (career 3.44 FIP, 3.91 SIERA) while others say he has a 2.82 ERA in 600 career innings, so he can beat projections consistently enough for the pick.
Lots of Julio Urías discussion in the fantasy baseball twittersphere.
Seeing two types of posts:
1. This guy is an outlier, and the projections aren't accurately capturing his skills.
2. This guy is an outlier and it would be tough for him to keep outlying.
— Derek Rhoads (@drhoa3) January 6, 2023
Oh, and he’s a Dodger so he has 37 combined wins over his last two seasons. We don’t like projecting Ws but LAD is as strong a source as there is. Banking on wins and ratios doesn’t feel as comfortable without hefty Ks. Will his strikeout rate creep back above 25%? Even if not, you’re still likely turning a profit.
Pick 5.09 - George Springer: Health risks run amok but we got 583 plate appearances from him last year. That provided 25 home runs and 14 steals after he hadn’t crossed the double-digit SB mark since 2015. Once again, Toronto wants to run more. Per ATC Projections, Springer and Byron Buxton (who went 9.05) are the only ones projected for 28+ HRs with 10+ SBs that aren’t going in the first two rounds. Buxton’s recent injury history makes Springer seem like an Iron Man.
Round Six
Pick 6.05 - Cristian Javier: Javier might not have Strider’s whiff ceiling but his 33.2% punchout rate and 24.3% K-BB mark are worthy of the spotlight. He’s started pushing into the first four rounds across 15-team Draft Champions, including a 2.09 pick in a recent $400 DC. Now with a five-year contract in hand, Javier could push for 225+ Ks over ~170 IP. I’d love to see him improve that 55.9% first-strike rate to improve efficiency but his current state obviously plays.
Round Seven
Pick 7.04 - Vinnie Pasquantino: The 25-year-old hit .295 with 10 home runs and more walks than strikeouts over his first 72 MLB games. You’re telling me that’s his learning curve? The ability to adjust has been there across all levels thus far thanks to a sharp eye and smooth swing. Unfortunately, he still plays at Kauffman Stadium, whose walls robbed him of three homers last year. Solid pop and a plus average can be yours here.
Round Eight
Pick 8.03 - Seiya Suzuki: An absolutely yoked Suzuki is lighting up best-shape-of-his-life Twitter and I’m here for it. He did so for durability but the ripple effect on power output could be generous. Remember his first 15 games supplied a .372/.517/.721 slash with four homers and 25 R+RBI before pitchers started pushing back.
Injuries carved up the season but his final 25 games had a .311/.386/.511 slash as his rolling 15-game ISO neared .300. An offseason to work on adjustments and consistency with MLB experience in his pocket could make that ceiling more of the usual. Keep the Zone Contact high with hard-hit flies and I'll be a happy clam.
Pick 8.07 - Wander Franco: Speaking of injuries marring an exciting debut, Franco came out red-hot before quad tightness came via icy weather in mid-April. Thanks a lot, Chicago. He staved that off for a while but his leg deteriorated until a late-May IL placement. He made a brief return before breaking a hamate bone, shelving him for two months.
Then, Franco posted a .322/.381/.471 slash with three steals over 25 games to finish strong. You’re drafting a healthy Franco, so don’t get tripped up on the fluky injuries. I know most are comfortable waiting on SS but he’s an excellent, well-rounded value.
Round Nine
Pick 9.09 - Salvador Perez: Perez suffered through much of 2022 thanks to a Grade 2 thumb sprain from May that he pushed through until it tore completely in June. It stunk, but Salvy always wants to be out there (recall his 161 games played in ‘21). He came back on July 29 and hit .297 with 12 home runs and 42 RBI over 57 games. That’s about 35% of the season and yields nearly 35 HRs with 100+ RBI over a full 162. I’m buying the dip as folks fixate on the lower .254 average rather than his healthy window.
Round 10
Pick 10.06 - Taylor Ward: Here’s another bat who catches flak for poor hitting likely tied to an injury. He was breaking out with a .370/.481/.713 line over his first 30 games before slamming into the outfield wall. His neck and shoulder bore it and the resulting nerve damage slowed and altered his swing. Now, the wild small-sample start with a .425 BABIP isn’t his new norm but he’s got a valuable leadoff slot ahead of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. This is a great risk-reward proposition in the 10th.
Notable Trends/Observations
JB's FrankenAces
JB didn’t take a starting pitcher until Round 9, once again bringing the FrankenAce strategy to life via Devin Williams and Ryan Pressly in Rds 6 & 7. Tyler Glasnow has many health questions but those seeking SP1 upside in the middle rounds with this build would be wise to highlight Tampa's 29-year-old. We've only gotten 212 2/3 IP in the last four seasons, but 300 Ks and a 2.75 ERA in that window are worth chasing.
Hitter/Pitcher Splits
Spencer and I were the only ones to take five pitchers through the first 10 rounds, with everyone else pulling at least a 60/40 hitter/pitcher split of capital. That said, we both took a trio of hitters in Rds 11-13. Three teams went with seven hitters to three pitchers. Do you like a certain route more? Roadmap accordingly and be comfortable with the pockets of players likely to be present.
The State of Third Base
Following Ramirez’s 1.01 pick, we had Rafael Devers (2.02), Manny Machado (2.04), and Austin Riley (2.09) all go off the board in Rd 2. You can expect the same in your draft. Nolan Arenado (3.05) and Alex Bregman (3.08) soon followed.
The Arenado pick is aligned with recent NFBC data, but Bregman going 32nd was a surprise that may become more common. His recent NFBC ADP is 69 so, on paper, it’s quite the leap. But it’s a steep drop at the hot corner after that. If your plan has you comfortable at other positions in the coming rounds then secure 3B and laugh ADP anchoring off.
Closers/RP Darts taken by Round
Rds 1-5: 0, 0, 2, 0, 0
Rds 6-10: 2, 3, 2, 1, 1
Rds 11-15: 1, 2, 2, 3, 0
Rds 16-20: 1, 3, 0, 2, 1
Rds 21-28: 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 0, 3, 3
As you can see, the top tier was in another universe compared to the rest of the field. If you want to anchor your team with Edwin Diaz or Emmanuel Clase then be prepared to pay up. They're electric, but if you knew the next guys went this much later then would you still sign up for Diaz/Clase?
This also raises an important draft-room practice. Fantrax ADP in the room is heavily skewed by their points-format best ball leagues, and relievers are a bit suppressed as a result. I should know, I've done 10+ of them and usually pad my pitching with falling stud RPs!
Latest starting player taken by position & round:
C: Cal Raleigh - 17.06
1B: Ryan Mountcastle - 13.09
2B: Jonathan India - 15.05
3B: Alec Bohm - 16.10
SS: Amed Rosario - 11.10* (If I used Witt at SS instead of 3B, then it’s Carlos Correa at 8.11)
OF: Adam Duvall 23.03 to Manuel Margot 24.09 (Other OFs taken in between them: Mark Canha, Trent Grisham, Jorge Soler)
So, which team do you like the most? I hope seeing some of these builds in full can help you plan out picks from certain draft slots.
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