August 10, 2015

Milo Taibi's analysis and advice for the top MLB DFS lineup picks on DraftKings for 8/10/15, as well as a couple of sleepers to keep in mind while building your daily fantasy baseball rosters.

Hey everyone! Thanks for checking out my weekly DraftKings column here on RotoBaller. This Monday, August 10th, I look to take advantage of a limited game slate by maximizing hot hands and buying low on underachieving and lesser known players.

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Offenses to Target for DraftKings Stacking

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHB and RHB) vs Aaron Harang

Harang, always a pitcher susceptible to power hitters, has surrendered home runs in six of his past seven outings. While his splits suggest a mild  edge to left-handed batters, Arizona’s offense features several attractive options on either side of the plate. Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600, .423 wOBA) has hit two career home runs in limited plate appearances against Harang. Likewise, left fielder David Peralta ($4,100, .363 wOBA) has fared well versus Harang, slugging .857 in seven PA’s against the veteran right-hander. I continue to recommend Welington Castillo in all streaming formats ($3,600, .420 wOBA and 1.391 OPS in past 14 games), and A.J Pollock (358 wOBA) should earn his $4,600 price tag as well.

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider For DraftKings

Matt Shoemaker (SP, LAA) - $8,400

Shoemaker presents an intriguing DFS option on an evening bereft of standout pitching. Chris Sale, Shoemaker’s adversary, remains Monday night’s most expensive pitcher despite surrendering seven earned runs on consecutive outings. Shoemaker, meanwhile, has struck out a combined 27 batters in his past three outings and faces a White Sox offense with a dismal .299 wOBA.

Matt Boyd (SP, DET) - $4,400

Boyd, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays this past trading deadline, brings upside and a cheap price tag Monday night. Making his organizational debut in his last outing, Boyd pitched a gem, earning a victory with seven innings of one-run baseball. Boyd, just 24 years old, earned a 3.48 FIP this season in Triple-A Buffalo while maintaining a .974 WHIP. With the Royals featuring a non-threatening .315 wOBA, DFS players should buy low on this young left-hander.

DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) - $3,200

If you’re not going to go the Welington Castillo route, I suggest Grandal due to his excellent hitting against lefties this season (14 hits in just 44 PA’s) and price point. Injury concerns aside, I cannot understand paying $300 more for Salvador Perez- and his .685 OPS. Gio Gonzalez has pitched to far worse results on the road (4.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) than at home this year. DFS players should take advantage of this and pay for Grandal.

Joey Votto (1B, CIN) - $4,600

Votto, carrying an elite 166 wRC+ into Monday’s game against the Padres, has been a one man wrecking crew of late for the Reds. With excellent career numbers against opposing pitcher Ian Kennedy (five hits in 15 PA’s) and a great track record at Petco Park (128 tOPS+ in 87 PA), the only conceivable question is: why pitch to him? Indeed, Votto has been getting walked this past week at a rate that would make even Paul Goldschmidt blush, at one point taking eight free passes in a three game stretch. Assuming Votto isn’t punished for Cincinnati's lack of lineup protection, he should be a sure bet for DFS success Monday night.

Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) - $3,900

I love Schoop’s power potential against the spot-starting Vidal Nuno. Schoop, who’s compiled a 1.283 OPS in his past 23 AB’s, brings a stealthy 150 wRC+ into Monday’s game at Safeco Field. While Schoop’s success may not be here to stay (his stats are bolstered by an unsustainable .342 BABIP) DFS is all about riding the hot hand, and tonight that leads to an easy vote of confidence for Schoop.

Daniel Murphy (3B, NYM) - $3,400

Despite the Mets’ woes against Tampa Bay this past weekend, Daniel Murphy was a consistent source of offense, providing multi-hit performances in two of the three games. Murphy, victimized by a .289 BABIP in 2015, enters Monday faring significantly better against RHP (119 tOPS+ this season) than LHP. With his bat heating up, Murphy will be a cheap play in the heart of the Mets’ lineup against Rockies pitching prospect Jon Gray (3.89 FIP in Triple-A Albuquerque).

Eugenio Suarez (SS, CIN) - $3,100

For the sake of drafting a DFS team, I hope this young shortstop continues to fly under the radar. Flourishing in his new organization (Cincinnati acquired Suarez from the Detroit Tigers over the off-season), Eugenio has hit for power and average in 2015. He's hitting for a .306 BA with six home runs in under 200 PA. Featuring a 119 wRC+ and .347 wOBA in 2015, Suarez has proven to be a viable DFS candidate in both home and away games.

DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) - $5,500

After a few financially conservative picks amongst the infield, I promptly implore DFS players to empty their wallets for Nelson Cruz. Cruz, facing Wei-Yin Chen and the Baltimore Orioles Monday night, has been on an unprecedented tear of late, hitting six home runs in his past eight games (several of which haven’t landed yet). With a monstrous .503 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, count on the “Boomstick Baby” to anchor your offense.

Adam Jones (OF, BAL) - $4,100

Jones enters Monday’s game against the Mariners touting a 139 wRC+ against LHP. This doesn’t bode well for opposing pitcher Vidal Nuno, who surrendered a home run and double to Jones in their only encounter last season. Jones, hitting a tepid .237 over his past 59 PA, will look to return to his hitting ways against the spot-starting Nuno at Safeco Field.

Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD) - $3,000

Puig’s miniscule salary is practically begging DFS players to buy low on the Dodgers outfielder Monday night. Puig may not be the fantasy asset many of us had hoped for prior to 2015, but he’s not worse (in terms of DFS money) than the likes of Will Venable, Juan Lagares, Alex Rios, and other players given higher price points. While mired in a terrible slump, Puig has hit left-handed pitching well in 2015, boasting a .386 wOBA against lefties. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly will have little choice but to give Puig the start in right field, though it’s always best to play it safe and check the lineup card as game time draws closer.

DFS Trap of the Night

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA) - $3,400

I suppose it’s difficult to consider a $3,400 player a “trap," but when you consider that Seager is batting just .050 in 21 career PA against Wei-Yin Chen...yeesh. Look elsewhere for DFS value, people.

Most Valuable $2,000 Player of the Night

Trayce Thompson (OF, CHW) - $2,000

I’m not sure there were any options as enticing as Ketel Marte last week (a must-own in any dynasty league), but this week I like Trayce Thompson on the White Sox. This 24-year old outfielder is hardly a lock for a lineup spot, but hit well enough at Triple-A Charlotte (.745 season OPS) for the organization to purchase his contract before rosters expand in September. If given the start, look for Thompson to hit at the bottom of Chicago’s order against Matt Shoemaker.

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