May 18, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on every game of Week 8 of the UFL season.

Another 5-3 week is nothing to be upset about. Plus, that was a fun week to kick back and watch from a results standpoint. The Renegades grab their first win of the season in dominant fashion, the Stallions beat the Battlehawks in a game that lived up to the expectations and gave positive tidings for the possible championship game to come, the Michigan Panthers continue to make alright teams look awful, and the Brahmas squeak by with another one against an opponent that should not have been close. We have also reached a very interesting point in the regular season: the Stallions and Panthers have already locked up their USFL Championship slots, while neither the Battlehawks or the Brahmas have clinched--with the D.C. Defenders somehow still in the race.

Birmingham (-145) to win the title continues to be a good value, and the Battlehawks being back up to +215 seems like an excellent value in the wake of their second loss on the year. The Brahmas (+800) and D.C. (+3500) are not to my liking. The Brahmas have been fading for weeks, and they badly need a jolt to their once imposing offense (this has been a problem for A.J. Smith), while I do not think D.C. has a real shot at a postseason run even if they do manage to sneak into the playoffs. The Panthers at +900 are worth taking a chance on. For a team that we know with 100% certainty will be in the playoffs, I do think they are capable of giving Birmingham a very good game on their best days, and if they made it to the UFL Championship, they would have a very good chance of beating the Battlehawks, even in St. Louis.

With that, let's dive into these Week 8 matchups that are littered with injury woes and fluctuating motivation levels.

Power Rankings

1. Birmingham Stallions
2. St. Louis Battlehawks
3. Michigan Panthers
4. San Antonio Brahmas
5. Arlington Renegades
6. D.C. Defenders
7. Houston Roughnecks
8. Memphis Showboats

Week 8 Picks

Memphis Showboats at Michigan Panthers (Saturday, May 18th, at 4PM ET)

Michigan (-9.5), Under 47.5

Maybe I am missing something here, but why would I possibly think that the Memphis Showboats could keep this contest respectable? Memphis has truly looked like the worst team in the league as the season has progressed--never more apparent than giving up 47 points to the now 1-6 Renegades, and only putting up 23 against the porous Arlington defense. The offensive numbers looked better on paper for the majority of the major players on offense, but I just can't trust that production considering how much this game opened up. Playing against the Michigan Panthers defense is going to feel like a whole different universe, because the Panthers proved last week that they are still quite formidable even with the season-ending injury to Frank Ginda. Matthew Colburn II broke out for 137 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week against the Defenders, and Wes Hills added 37 yards with a touchdown. The only concern that I have for Michigan this week is the QB depth chart. For some other-worldly reason, Brian Lewerke is slated as the starter over Bryce Perkins, despite Perkins thoroughly out-playing Lewerke in Week 7 in virtually every aspect of the position.

Case Cookus is again starting for Memphis, Troy Williams has somehow been leap-frogged by Josh Love on the depth chart. I think Michigan is going to win this home game (albeit, in front of 7,000 or so people) by at least ten points, but this score is tough to call considering the proclivity of both head coaches to use their available personnel in incredibly peculiar ways. Memphis can't stop Michigan's ground game, and I remain confident that Perkins will be the Panthers' man by the end of the game. Give me a final score range of 24-10 to 30-14, so roll under in the first game of the week.

Houston Roughnecks at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, May 18th, at 8PM ET)

Birmingham (-16.5), Under 43

The Stallions once again proved themselves to be the best that Spring Football has to offer last week in their 30-26 victory over the St. Louis Battlehawks in Birmingham--they weren't without their vulnerabilities, but Adrian Martinez and the Birmingham backfield continued to thrive, and the defense limited every aspect of the St. Louis offense other than Hakeem Butler. At this point, in having clinched their playoff spot and having defeated the best that the XFL has, one only has to wonder as to what extent Skip Holtz will have his team on cruise control for the remainder of the regular season. As for Houston, it was a disappointing 15-12 loss to in-state rival San Antonio that they had well within their grasp. Jarrett Guarantano was a bad idea as QB1, and Mark Thompson and T.J. Pledger were forced to carry the offensive load yet again. The Roughnecks defense is still really solid--but Reuben Foster is now inactive, and that stings. As close as last week was for this team, it is still very hard to complain about a loss when you only put 12 points on the board.

It is very tempting to fall into the line of thinking that this game feels almost too easy--to be fair, almost every Birmingham game does. There are definitely a couple things going Houston's way: it is going to be Reid Sinnett getting the start at QB, Mark Thompson ended up an active part of the Roughnecks backfield and ran nine times for 38 yards, and Birmingham will be dealing with the absences of RB C.J. Marable and CB Mark Gilbert. But no, not in these circumstances. The first time these teams played, Houston took a 32-9 loss at home. Birmingham could win this game in their sleep, so no other circumstances should effect my decision. Look for it to be over early and Birmingham to call off the dogs before the over hits, with a final score range of 31-7 to 33-10.

D.C. Defenders at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, May 19th, at 12PM ET)

St. Louis (-6), Over 43.5

The St. Louis Battlehawks can definitely remain confident moving forward after keeping the game in Birmingham within four even though their 26 points came more off of some sloppy, uncharacteristic mistakes from the Stallions rather than from actual offensive production. In fact, A.J. McCarron and the entirety of the St. Louis backfield were held in proper check by Birmingham. This week, the Battlehawks were forced to sign QB Drew Plitt to add to the QB room with Manny Wilkins because McCarron is inactive, along with WRs Jahcour Pearson and Marcell Ateman. That is a real blow, but St. Louis should be wholly concerned with having those guys available and ready for the postseason. Jordan Ta'amu and Keke Coutee are good to go for Sunday after a demoralizing 22-9 loss at home last week against the Panthers where Jalan McClendon had to make an appearance, and the production on the ground was simply horrendous. I haven't liked this D.C. team all year--they have very, very little going for them. But, here we are in Week 8, and their playoff hopes are still alive.

The first 2024 matchup between these XFL foes was a 45-12 massacre at Audi Field, and things aren't getting easier for D.C. playing in front of a ton of people in St. Louis that want to see another beatdown. St. Louis has taken some massive injury hits, and the Defenders have a lot to play for. Even with the missing pieces, I think that the Battlehawks backfield will be able to do damage in this game, and the Battlehawks still have enough receiving weapons in this home contest to put a fair amount of points up. I think D.C. will naturally score more too with the weaknesses of the St. Louis defense. This game has the most circumstantial question marks to me. D.C. ML could even be a viable play today, and I think that this line is right on point. On the side favorable to the Defenders, I could see a final score of 23-18 to 25-20 in a loss. Don't forget though that the UFL has a lot to benefit from if the Battlehawks make it to the championship game. D.C. has looked so mediocre, I have to lay the points with them. I could see a win within the range of 24-17 to 28-21, so I am also leaning over.

Arlington Renegades at San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, May 19th, at 4PM ET)

Arlington (+3), Over 46, +140 ML

What a bittersweet game last week for the Arlington Renegades. What a concerning game last week for the San Antonio Brahmas. What fun for another Texas vs. Texas UFL matchup in Week 8. Arlington blew out Memphis 47-23 for their first win of the season with Luis Perez, Sal Cannella, and De'Veon Smith all having themselves a day. Lindsey Scott Jr. threw a TD pass, Devin Darrington got some work, and WR J.P. Payton had a breakout performance. Everything on offense was clicking, and we finally got to see a victory from a team that has been much better than their record has indicated all season long. Unfortunately, they cannot make the playoffs, which is an absolute travesty. If this game wasn't against an XFL and in-state rival, I would question whether Arlington had any motivation at all to win this game on the road at the Alamodome after shedding their winless stigma in Week 7. The Brahmas looked pretty awful. It is no meaningful achievement to hold the Houston Roughnecks to 12 points these days, but this significant drop in production for A.J. Smith's offense is startling. I love Quinten Dormady, but he looked absolutely awful last week, and it is wild to see that Kevin Hogan is QB2 after he gave the Brahmas a much needed jolt. They need to continue to work the backfield combo of John Lovett and Morgan Ellison--even on slow days, they still provide a solid foundation on which success can be built.

I will say it again--I REALLY think that San Antonio should be starting Jayden De Laura, but that isn't happening for the time being. They are somehow still fighting for the #1 spot in the XFL and fighting to maintain a playoff spot after dropping their Week 6 game against the Defenders. Let's be honest--Arlington has lost two games this season where they were the better team the entire day, but I don't think that the UFL's wacky rules can save San Antonio this time. I think Arlington is going to easily surpass the 15 points that they scored in the first go-round with San Antonio with CB Darius Phillips and DE Tariqious Tisdale inactive, and I think the Brahmas will see an uptick in their offense against the soft Renegades defense. Take Arlington to win this game straight up, and at the very least to cover three points, with a final score range of 25-21 to 30-26--leaning over the mark of 46.

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