X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks- Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/6/23)

Jimmy Butler - NBA dfs lineup picks, daily fantasy basketball

After two nights this past week of single games, we are back on a double-game basis (for now). This Saturday of the NBA playoffs features two matchups locked in 1-1 ties. Jimmy Butler makes his return to the court after a one-game absence to host the New York Knicks in the arena with ever-changing names. Stephen Curry takes his show on the road to Los Angeles where the stars will be in full force.

The last time I wrote here, I was able to redeem myself with a 2-0 night. New York and Miami finished their game two total at 216, cashing the over 206.5. Los Angeles went into Golden State and won outright, easily covering +5. I'm 6-7 now in the 2023 playoffs but I will try to use that momentum built and keep moving forward.

In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread and game totals for the NBA playoff games that tip off at 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, May 6.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

New York Knicks (+3.5) @ Miami Heat (209.5 total)

Series: Tied 1-1

The story of this game will be the return of Miami Heat superstar Jimmy Butler after missing game two. Butler has done everything for the Heat these playoffs when he's on the court and is averaging 35.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and nearly two steals per game.

Heat:

Miami actually held it together in Game Two despite Butler being on the bench. They entered this game as ten-point underdogs after it was announced Julius Randle would be back for the Knicks. The Heat were able to get 22 points from Caleb Martin, 21 points from Gabe Vincent, 17 from Max Strus, and 15 from Bam Adebayo. Those four players made up 75 of Miami's 105 points.

Gabe Vincent has scored 21 and 20 points in the first two games of this series. Adding Game Five against Milwaukee, Vincent has scored 20+ in three straight games with 13 total three-pointers.

 

Erik Spoelstra's team hit 38/85 (45%) field goal attempts, 17/49 (35%) three-pointers, and 12/17 (71%) free throws in Game Two. Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat relied more on three-pointers as they don't really have playmakers on the floor.

Miami has averaged 37 three-point attempts per game in the playoffs, up from the 34.8 they averaged in the regular season. They are also hitting 15.3 threes per game with a 41.3 average which is tops among playoff teams. In the regular season, they hit 12 per game at a 34.4 percent clip, bottom four in the NBA.

We could also talk about how they are averaging 119 points in the playoffs which is almost ten points higher than their season average. Not to nitpick too much, but the 49.6 field goal percentage is almost four percent better than the regular season mark. I point all this out and it's probably pretty clear by now, I'm skeptical those numbers will continue for Miami.

Knicks:

The Knicks didn't do much better in terms of scoring in Game Two, only putting up 111 points. They hit 37/82 (45%) field goals, 16/40 (40%) three-pointers, and 21/30 (70%) free throws. It was by far their best three-point shooting game of the playoffs and only the second time they made 10+ threes in a game in the 2023 playoffs. Prior to this game, they were 49/183 (26.7%) from three.

The free throw disparity can't be ignored. New York took 13 more foul shots which is not something you can always rely on game to game. New York may have gotten a friendlier whistle in Game Two at home, Game Three in Miami could look different.

Julius Randle playing in Game Two also slowed things down for the Knicks. In Game One without Randle, the game had a 95 pace. With Randle inserted back for Game Two, the pace in the game dropped to 90. The Knicks also saw their field goal attempts go from 86 in Game One to 82 in Game Two. That number feels about right and then you can factor in they probably don't shoot that well again from three or take that many free throws.

Prediction:

The total for this game is sitting at 209.5. Both games in this series have gone over and I think we're in a good position for an under. Miami could try to slow the game down more to keep Jimmy Butler and his ankle fresh. I also think we've seen some players overperform and I wouldn't be surprised if they came back down to earth. This should be a hard-fought physical series that hopefully has good defense and a lot of misses on Saturday afternoon.

The Pick: Under 209.5 (-110 Fanduel)

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any VIP Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Golden State Warriors (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (227.5 total)

Series: Tied 1-1

History of Game Two response from the home team losing Game One:

Game Two of this series was the classic response of a home team refusing to drop both games at home. In the 2023 NBA playoffs, home teams are now 7-0 in Game Two after losing Game One at home. The streak extends back even further to 16 straight playoff games.

The Warriors shot the ball incredibly well in Game Two. They hit 48/95 (50%) field goals and 21/42 (50%) three-pointers. I don't care who you're playing, if your opponent shoots like that, most teams are losing that game 9/10 times. It can also be chalked up to history as home teams are now 13-3 ATS in those Game Two wins off of a home Game One loss.

Hot Laker start:

The way this game started, it felt like the Lakers were going to steal both on the road. A 33-26 first quarter left the expensive Warriors crowd pretty silent. Anthony Davis only scored two points in the opening frame, LeBron opened the game with 12 points in the first and it looked like he wouldn't be denied.

Warriors 2nd-3rd quarter domination:

This game would be decided in the middle quarters where the Warriors outscored the Lakers 84-47. Golden State hit 6/12 threes in the second quarter and 8/10 from deep in the third. Again, if a team shoots that hot from three they will be impossible to beat. Another big change was the Warriors also attacking the basket as seen with the 30 points in the paint they scored in the first half:

A problem Steve Kerr's team had in Game One is they were bullied in the paint. The Lakers outscored them 54-28 in Game One points in the paint. Golden State held strong in Game Two, outscoring them 48-42.

Stephen Curry has been guarded pretty heavily in the first two games of this series. Being the great player he is, Curry was able to adjust in Game Two, picking up 12 assists while only scoring 20 points in 29 minutes. Steph, understandably so, looked fatigued in Game One of this series after his 50-point herculean performance in Game Seven against the Sacramento Kings only two days earlier. Nonetheless, he found teammates in Game Two and the Warriors were much more effective and prepared. When Curry got picked up as the ballhandler in this game, the Warriors nearly doubled their points per possession:

It will be interesting to see how the Lakers play this in Game Three. On one hand, the Warriors carved them up, but on the other, GS shot a crazy percentage which is just hard to sustain. Game Two is a bit hard to evaluate which is why I think Game One is a better sample size. If the Warriors hit 21/42 three-pointers again, I can live with that.

Los Angeles looked deflated after the 41-23 second quarter and found themselves down 30 points entering the fourth quarter. This should be a long series and a rebound by the Warriors was expected. Sometimes it's best to just save the energy and that's what the Lakers did.

Prediction:

I like the Lakers to bounce back in Game Three. Game Two got away from them but they were the tougher team in Game One and Anthony Davis should be ready to go. Davis loves to do this act where he has a bad game after having a big game. Typically, he recovers in the next game and the Lakers should look to him early in this one. Los Angeles finds their toughness and takes Game Three in what should be a series for the long haul.

The Pick: Lakers -2.5 (-110 Caesars)

Check out the RotoBaller Discord on a nightly basis for additional content - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eduardo Rodriguez49 mins ago

Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez To Throw Bullpens On Saturday
Ziaire Williams2 hours ago

Heading To Brooklyn
Kris Dunn2 hours ago

Moved To Clippers, Signs New Contract
Kevin Durant2 hours ago

Expected To Return To Team USA Practice
Jordan Montgomery2 hours ago

Throws Sim Game, On Track To Return Next Week
Clint Capela2 hours ago

Knicks "Checked In" On Clint Capela
Clayton Kershaw3 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Friday
Virna Jandiroba3 hours ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Amanda Lemos4 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Brad Tavares4 hours ago

Set For Co-Main Event
JunYong Park4 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 94
Kaynan Kruschewsky4 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win At UFC Vegas 94
Kurt Holobaugh4 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Hunter Brown17 hours ago

Receiving First Start After All-Star Break
Corbin Burnes17 hours ago

Getting Second Half Underway For O's
Sonny Gray17 hours ago

Taking The Hill Against Braves
Tanner Bibee18 hours ago

Gets The Nod For Friday's Start
18 hours ago

Russell Westbrook Traded To Utah, Likely Heading To Denver
Jack Flaherty18 hours ago

Starting Friday Against Toronto
Justin Steele18 hours ago

To Kick Off Second Half For Cubs
Chris Olave18 hours ago

Placed On Non-Football Injury List
New Orleans Saints18 hours ago

Ryan Ramczyk Won't Play In 2024
Nick Chubb19 hours ago

Likely To Be Placed On PUP List
Mike Williams19 hours ago

Placed On PUP List
Bill Algeo19 hours ago

Looks To Return To Win Column At UFC Vegas 94
MMA19 hours ago

Doo Ho Choi Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 94
Bruno Silva19 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Vegas 94
Cody Durden19 hours ago

A Slight Favorite At UFC Vegas 94
MMA19 hours ago

Seung Woo Choi An Underdog At UFC Vegas 94
Steve Garcia19 hours ago

Looks To Extend Knockout Streak At UFC Vegas 94
20 hours ago

Jacob Wilson Promoted To The Major Leagues
Miami Dolphins23 hours ago

Bradley Chubb, Jalean Phillips Land On PUP List
Yandy Díaz23 hours ago

Rays Will Listen On Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes
Brooks Baldwin23 hours ago

White Sox Calling Up Brooks Baldwin
Fernando Tatis Jr.23 hours ago

MRI Shows Fernando Tatis Jr. Is Healing
Dylan Crews1 day ago

Nationals Will Consider Calling Up Dylan Crews In The Second Half
Michael Harris II1 day ago

Not Close To A Return
Triston Casas1 day ago

Could Begin Rehab Assignment Before End Of July
Kyle Tucker1 day ago

Hasn't Resumed Hitting
Tristan Da Silva1 day ago

Stays Hot From Deep Versus Grizzlies
Scotty Pippen Jr.1 day ago

Totals 25 Points, Nine Assists Wednesday
Taylor Hendricks1 day ago

Notches 23 Points With Near-Perfect Shooting
David Roddy1 day ago

Pushes Suns Past Thunder
Keon Ellis1 day ago

Bounces Back With 29 Points Versus Knicks
Bronny James1 day ago

Helps Lakers To Victory With 12-Point Effort
Kodai Senga2 days ago

To Make Another Rehab Start This Weekend
Josh Richardson2 days ago

Hopes To Be Ready For Training Camp
Julius Randle2 days ago

Recovery "Going Incredibly Well"
Khris Middleton2 days ago

Has Surgery On Both Ankles This Offseason
Houston Texans2 days ago

Laremy Tunsil Fully Healthy After Arthroscopic Surgery
Xavier Worthy2 days ago

Won't Start Training Camp On PUP List
Deshaun Watson2 days ago

Hasn't Had Setbacks With His Shoulder
2 days ago

Usman Garuba Heading Back To Spain
Jarace Walker2 days ago

Stays Hot From Deep Tuesday
Marcus Sasser2 days ago

Enjoys Good Two-Way Outing
Jalen Wilson2 days ago

Leads Nets Past Knicks With 27-Point Effort
Karlo Matkovic2 days ago

Puts In Big Performance Versus Spurs
Alexandre Sarr2 days ago

Goes Scoreless On 15 Shots
Mason Miller3 days ago

Earns All-Star Game Win
Jarren Duran3 days ago

Wins All-Star Game MVP Award
Nicolai Hojgaard3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Before The Open Championship
Russell Henley3 days ago

Eyeing Strong Performance At The Open Championship
PGA3 days ago

Sungjae Im Playing Some Of His Best Golf In Lead-Up To The Open Championship
Dustin Johnson3 days ago

Lacking Major Championship Form In 2024
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Struggling Ahead Of The Open Championship
Max Homa3 days ago

Slipping In Form Heading To Royal Troon
Charles Bassey3 days ago

Returning To The Spurs
Theo Johnson3 days ago

Giants Place Theo Johnson On PUP List
Daniel Jones3 days ago

Healthy, Won't Be Placed On PUP List
Ricky Pearsall3 days ago

Lands On Non-Football Injury List
Denver Broncos3 days ago

Quinn Meinerz Inks Four-Year Extension With Broncos
Dean Burmester3 days ago

May Be A Risk Worth Taking
Justin Rose3 days ago

Making His 22nd Career Open Championship Appearance
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

Robert Macintyre Hoping To Take Momentum From Historic Win To Royal Troon
Christian Watson3 days ago

Health Imperative For Packers WR Corps
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

An Interesting But Risky Option At Royal Troon
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

Looking For Consistent Ball-Striking At Open Championship
Davante Adams3 days ago

Expected To Stay With Raiders
Wyndham Clark3 days ago

Rolling Into Royal Troon After Intriguing Run Of Form
Caleb Williams3 days ago

Bears, Caleb Williams Agree On Rookie Deal
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Looks To End Cut Streak At 2024 Open Championship
Brian Harman3 days ago

Looks To Defend The Claret Jug
Carlos Correa3 days ago

Won't Play In All-Star Game
Corey Conners3 days ago

Brings Strong Form To Royal Troon Debut
Cameron Young3 days ago

Readies For Third Open Championship
Tony Finau3 days ago

Returns To Royal Troon
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Returns To The Site Of His First Open
Brooks Koepka3 days ago

Debuts At Royal Troon
Daniel Jones3 days ago

Hasn't Had Any Setbacks
Rome Odunze3 days ago

Signs Rookie Deal
Brandon Aiyuk3 days ago

Officially Requests A Trade
Bryson DeChambeau3 days ago

Bryson Dechambeau Looking To Finish Off Historic Major Run At Royal Troon
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Debuts At The Open Championship
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Hopes For Playoffs Take Another Hit At Pocono
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Struggles Continue At Pocono
James Conner4 days ago

Hopes To Build On 2023 Campaign
AJ Dillon4 days ago

Enters Training Camp On Roster Bubble
Dustin Hopkins4 days ago

Browns, Dustin Hopkins Agree To Three-Year Extension
NASCAR4 days ago

Martin Truex Jr Won Stage 1 at Pocono, but Foiled by Strategy Yet Again
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Denny Hamlin Finished Second at Pocono but Matched Ryan Blaney in Performance
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Had Speed at Pocono, but Hindered by Strategy, Speeding Penalty, and Sour Engine
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Scores Penske's First Pocono Win Since 2011
Tracy Cortez4 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Dominates Tracy Cortez
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Incredible Consistency Continues At Pocono
Alex Bowman4 days ago

Captures Third Place At Pocono
Muslim Salikhov4 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Denver
Santiago Ponzinibbio4 days ago

Loses Second Fight In A Row
Ange Loosa4 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Gabriel Bonfim4 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Denver
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Finishes Seventh At The Great American Getaway 400
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Earns Spot In DraftKings Winning Lineup At Pocono
Joey Logano4 days ago

Finishes Fifth At Pocono On Sunday
William Byron4 days ago

Still Ends Up In Top Five At Pocono
Abdul Razak Alhassan5 days ago

Gets a NC At UFC Denver
Cody Brundage5 days ago

Fight Ends Early Due To Illegal Shots
Christian Rodriguez5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC Denver
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Pocono
Martin Truex Jr5 days ago

. Is A Top Favorite To Win At Pocono
Joey Logano5 days ago

Will Start 10th At Pocono This Week
Brad Keselowski5 days ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Brad Keselowski At Pocono?
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Will Start 11th At Pocono This Week
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Is A Capable Value Pick For Pocono
William Byron5 days ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Pocono
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

The Favorite To Win At Pocono
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Should Be Strong At Pocono

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jordan Love - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Targets, NFL Injury News

Quarterback Targets and Sleepers for Best Ball Leagues - 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

The Scott Fish Bowl is underway. While the rest of redraft leagues won’t draft until next month, July is the perfect time for fantasy players to join a best ball draft. However, they should know the difference between redraft and best ball fantasy leagues. Fantasy players need to manage their redraft leagues, making weekly transactions... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Predicting All First-Time 1,000-Yard Receivers in 2024 - NFL Fantasy Football Outlook

The 1,000-yard mark has long been seen as a barometer of success for wide receivers. In truth, it has been watered down a bit with the league becoming more pass-heavy. However, it’s still a badge of honor, and 1,000-yard receivers certainly help any fantasy football roster. Each year, we have a new crop of receivers... Read More


Brandin Cooks - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The Most Undervalued Fantasy Football Player from Every NFC Team (2024)

Fantasy football is all about value. Taking a player three rounds earlier than where he is going in drafts likely won't work out in the long run. Of course, there are exceptions to that rule, like if fantasy managers took Rachaad White a couple of rounds earlier last year.  Sometimes, reaching for players is also... Read More


Trey McBride - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers, Tight End

Predicting the Top-3 Fantasy Football Players At Each Position - 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

When it comes to playing fantasy football, prognostication is extremely important. Yes, we as fantasy players are not correct as often as we'd like to think, but this is part of the game. As Hyman Roth once said in "The Godfather Part II," "This is the business we've chosen!" However, it's still an important exercise... Read More


Zamir White - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

The RB Dead Zone In Fantasy Football: What Is It And Do You Need To Avoid It?

To veer or not to veer, that is the question. The running back dead zone is a dangerous realm, one that’s not for the faint of heart. You may have been spurned in the past by the likes of running backs like Mike Davis in 2021, Chase Edmonds in 2022, and Alexander Mattison in 2023.... Read More


DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Philadelphia Eagles 2024 Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Philadelphia Eagles as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at... Read More


Dak Prescott - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Players to Target and Avoid - NFC East

Fantasy football managers are gearing up for the 2024 NFL season and preparing for their fantasy football drafts. Evaluating the NFC East rosters to determine which players to target and which to avoid is crucial for these drafts. This article tackles fantasy targets and those to avoid from each NFC East team. The NFC East... Read More


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Best Ball Running Back Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts (Tiers 1-3) - July Updates

Some of you have been building rosters in best ball drafts since the initial weeks of the offseason, and participation in this format has accelerated as we have advanced through the summer. Enthusiasm for these leagues remains enormous as it provides the opportunity to satisfy your passion for involvement in the draft process while completing... Read More


Rachaad White - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

One-Man Backfields To Avoid In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

Bell-cow running backs in the NFL have become about as rare as having a positive interaction on social media. As a result, it's getting extremely difficult to find a workhorse back in fantasy football drafts. That makes our job as fantasy players trickier. While we typically want to target backfields with bell-cow rushers, there are... Read More


Harrison Butker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Kickers

Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings (K)

    Fantasy Football Rankings by NFL Position ALL - QB - RB - WR - TE - DEF   Kicker (K) Rankings Articles On this page you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings for kicker (K) and the NFL season. All of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings analysis, advice and articles related to the kicker position appear here. Our fantasy football rankings articles include analysis on numerous league formats... Read More


CeeDee Lamb - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

11 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers With Target Hog Potential

For a wide receiver to be good in fantasy, they must get the football. Duh, right? But you know what I mean: the more targets a player receives, the more opportunities exist for them to score points in fantasy. Sometimes, you get players who are their team's No. 1 receiver, which leads to a high... Read More


Chris Olave - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The Best Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tandems for 2024 Drafts

Being successful in your fantasy football league will require drafting players who will be able to score fantasy points consistently every week as well as offer a very high ceiling of potential when it comes to fantasy scoring. The wide receiver position is the one that tends to offer the highest fantasy ceiling in a... Read More


Jahmyr Gibbs - Fantasy Football, Rankings, Draft, Sleeper, DFS, Running Back

NFL Power Rankings: All 32 Teams Ahead of Training Camp

The countdown to the NFL season is on, and with training camps just around the corner, it's the perfect time to look into the ever-evolving world of NFL Power Rankings. As we gear up for another rollercoaster of a season, each team’s potential is meticulously dissected, scrutinized, and ranked. From future champions to underdogs, our... Read More