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It's a loaded slate for pitching and so I am going to do something unprecedented for this piece so far this season. I am going to give you FIVE pitching props today and skip the hitters. No offense hitters, but I grow weary of you letting me down in good spots. My pitching picks are my bread and butter and always have been. And there just happen to be five spots I really like today, so why not just roll with those - you know what I mean?
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, June 6, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Mitch Keller OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings)
Let's start with the prop that every single one of you wants to bet on today and I'm not going to have to twist your arm too much in order to do so. Keller continued his epic run last time out by striking out eight Giants despite also allowing four runs on 10 hits. That actually makes two starts in a row where he struggled with run prevention but still buckled down and got his strikeouts and finished six innings. The streak of 7+ strikeouts is now at seven games and he walks into one of the best matchups of the day here at home against Oakland, who are one of the worst in the league against RHP at 27% K%.
Mitch Keller, Painted 96mph Front Door Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/AwMYRT69jS
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2023
Regression is going to come at some point for Mitch with that 10% SwStr%, but I don't think it's today and I was honestly expecting this number to be 7.5 (which it is on FanDuel). If it moves up during the day, I am okay betting it at 7.5, too, as I have him projected for nearly 9 strikeouts tonight.
Jesus Luzardo OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
Here's the other juicy line as it's sitting at -155 on DK now and probably going to move. Luzardo is enjoying a nice little stretch of 7+ strikeouts of his own with four straight games having hit that number. Two of those starts have been great for run prevention as well, allowing only one run in each while in the other two (against San Diego and San Francisco) he gave up six and five runs, respectively.
Jesús Luzardo, K'ing the Side in the 2nd.
5Ks thru 2 pic.twitter.com/Fvxxbi1EKb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 1, 2023
Luzardo is a classic fly ball/strikeout pitcher. He's going to give up some home runs to opponents, but he's shown the ability to rack up strikeouts in bunches, too. His SwStr% is sitting at 13.2% on the season and he's really improved his control this year as he's brought down his walk rate to just 7%. We saw Braxton Garrett get six strikeouts in this spot last night, even after giving up some runs early, and I am going right back to this matchup as KC has an elevated K% to lefties over their last few weeks (26.4%).
If this line moves to 7.5, I think I am OUT, though, unlike with Keller. So grab it at 6.5 now! Parlay it
Zach Eflin OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
It's very close here between Eflin and Gilbert in terms of who my third favorite K prop is today, but we are getting much better odds on straight bets than our top two arms. My guess as to why we are getting Eflin at 5.5 is that it has to do with his very odd zero-strikeout game from a few starts ago against Toronto. Now the Blue Jays have one of the lowest K rates against righties in the majors and to his credit, Eflin shut them down to just one run over seven innings. That game certainly feels like an outlier for Eflin, who has been really effective this season and a surprisingly good strikeout artist with a 24.5% K% this year.
The key here is the matchup. The Twins are swinging and missing a ton right now. They lead baseball with a 31% K% against RHP over the last two weeks. They have good offensive marks otherwise, which can make the matchup dangerous for run prevention. But we are just hunting strikeouts here. Eflin's elite control means we don't have to worry about him walking guys and running up big pitch counts early, so he's got a great chance to get there tonight if he can continue to pitch into the later stages of the game (he's gone 6 or 7 innings in six straight starts).
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Logan Gilbert OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Gilbert's ERA has taken a jump lately, but he's still generating plenty of strikeouts in the right spots. He enters tonight's game with an excellent 28.7% K% and gets a San Diego team that strikes out around 24% of the time. Gilbert's game log is all over the place and he has dipped below six strikeouts twice in his last handful of starts. But this is also a guy who has gone bonkers against good teams as he struck out 10 Rangers and 9 Braves - stifling two of the best offenses in baseball.
Gilbert, like Eflin, has shown some elite control, too, so while the Padres walk a good bit, I don't think we have to worry about him laboring early and driving up his pitch count. I'm betting on the talent that Gilbert has shown this season. His fastball, slider, and splitter combo can be devastating. If he can pitch around Soto and Tatis Jr., there are a lot of strikeout-prone hitters in the bottom two-thirds of this Padres lineup.
Clarke Schmidt OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)
This is the guy who has the most question marks by far. Schmidt has been all over the map this year, but I was surprised to see that he qualified for my magic pitcher formula when I was writing this article about ground balls, walks, and strikeouts and how they correlated with ERA.
Schmidt, despite his 5.0 ERA, is only one of seven pitchers who have a strikeout rate above 24%, GB% above 45%, and a walk rate below 8%. Now he just barely makes the cut on all three stats, but his ERA indicators all point to him being much closer to a 4.0 ERA pitcher than a 5.0 ERA guy.
But I digress, today is really just about this matchup with the White Sox (26% K% over the last two weeks) and the solid recent form that Schmidt has shown. He's gone three straight starts in which he has allowed two earned runs or fewer and he blanked the Mariners with seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings last time out. His strikeout totals are anything but consistent, but he does have 6+ strikeouts in five of his last eight games. The White Sox don't walk much at all (6%) and are going to run at least five RHH out there today, which benefits Schmidt as he's been more deadly (29% K%) to righties than lefties (22% K%) this year.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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