Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (10/17/22)

October 17, 2022

Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/16/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

It is Monday, October 17th and we have one MLB game on the slate with a pivotal Game 5 matchup between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians. The winner of the game will move onto the American League Championship Series for a seven-game series against the Houston Astros.

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

O/U: 7.5| Moneyline: NYY -150
CLE: Aaron Civale| NYY: Jameson Taillon

David vs. Golaith.

Rich team vs. Broke team.

The team everyone expected to be here vs. the team nobody expected to be here.

Find a cliche and that fits this scenario. The Yankees have found themselves on the brink of elimination when everyone expected them to cruise into the World Series. They evened up the series on Sunday night and they look to advance to face Houston tonight.

The lines for this game are extremely sharp. They should be.

Aaron Civale takes the mound for Cleveland. On the year, he had a 3.62 xFIP in the regular season with a 4.92 ERA. With this being a playoff game, all hands are going to be on deck and the moment Civale is in trouble, he will likely get pulled from the game.

The good news for Cleveland is he does very well the first time through the batting order. In those situations, he has a 3.20 xFIP, a 28.4% strikeout rate, and just a 4.0% walk rate. He also has a 0.88 WHIP and a 2.98 ERA.

The second time through the batting order, things tend to get worse for Civale. He has a 4.02 xFIP, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and a 5.4% walk rate. He also has a 1.32 WHIP and a 5.35 ERA.

Based on these numbers, it is reasonable to expect Civale to get pulled by the fourth inning or so. He is likely to start off strong and get into some trouble the next time through the order. If he struggles out the gates, it is unlikely he will improve in the game.

How does this look for the Jameson Taillon?

Taillon had a 3.79 xFIP and a 3.91 ERA during the regular season. The first time through the batting order, he has a 3.68 xFIP, a 22.6% strikeout rate, a 4.5% walk rate, along with a 3.24 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.

The second time through the order is very similar to the first for Taillon. In the second time, he has a 3.37 xFIP, a 22.5% strikeout rate, a 5.1% walk rate, but with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. In the third time through the order, Taillon's xFIP balloons to 4.70.

One thing with Taillon, however, is he did not pitch well in his first playoff game this year, when he pitched the 10th inning out of the bullpen in Game 2. Taillon allowed two runs and didn't give up a hit.

The question is what will Taillon's mindset be like for this game?

If things go similar to the regular season, Civale and Taillon are pretty similar the first time through respective batting orders with Civale having an edge. In the second time through the order, Taillon is much better than Civale. If this were a regular season game, that third to fifth inning area would be where the Yankees have a massive edge. Because this is an elimination playoff game, it is very possible Cleveland goes right to the bullpen early.

I would be leary of any prop bets during this game at all. It is unclear what the pitching matchups will be and how long the starters even last. It is difficult to have any batter props when matchups are not clear, and it is difficult to have any takes on pitching props when the leash will be very short on both starters.

My take from a betting perspective here is to pick a narrative and make a small parlay. It is likely the Yankees will win and it is also likely that the game total stays under 7.5 runs. If you believe those two things will happen, parlay it. If one thinks the Yankees win but it will be a high scoring game, then do a parlay there.

Here are some combinations of parlays right now:

Yankees Moneyline+ OVER 7.5 Runs : +233
Yankees Moneyline + UNDER 7.5 Runs: +205
Guardians Moneyline + OVER 7.5 Runs: +360
Guardians Moneyline + UNDER 7.5 Runs: +321

My lean is the bottom one: Guardians Moneyline + UNDER 7.5 Runs. Civale is the better pitcher the first time through the orders. Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, and Trevor Stephan did not pitch on Sunday and will be rested. For New York, outside of Clay Holmes, the rest of the bullpen pitched on both Saturday and Sunday.

New York is the better team on paper, but Cleveland's spot isn't a bad one all things considered.

The "chalky" take would be Yankees Moneyline + UNDER 7.5 Runs for +205. I would consider that one safer, but I just have a feeling about Cleveland and the under tomorrow.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline + UNDER 7.5 Runs (+321), DraftKings Sportsbook.

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