February 19, 2018

Fantasy baseball draft strategy and analysis. Brant Chesser debunks popular myths about the draft value of players in the National League East for 2018.

This series will attempt to help fantasy baseball owners make informed opinions on players whose ADP may not be in line with their value for the 2018 season.

As fantasy owners, we can fall into a "group think" mentality and start to overlook certain teams and players. If we aren't careful, those ideas can turn into blind spots in our search for value during our auctions and drafts.

To examine some possible scenarios that could differentiate from our pre-season viewpoints, we will debunk possible myths from teams and players in the NL East.

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Myth 1: The Marlins Won't Have Players with Much Value

While the team context may lower the counting statistics for the Marlins hitters, there are Marlins players that can provide value to our fantasy teams.

Justin Bour - 1B, MIA

Even in a park that suppresses power, Justin Bour increased his hard-contact rate to 38.8 Hard% in 2017, and the fact that he posted the 37th best exit velocity, 95.3 MPH, on FB%/LD% in MLB illustrates his ability to put the barrel on the ball. His power can play in any park, as he slugged 14 home runs at Marlins Park in 2017. Justin Bour also improved his platoon splits. While he has struggled versus LHP throughout his career, he posted an .809 OPS with six home runs in 87 AB against southpaws in 2017. With a career .866 OPS versus RHP and a .929 OPS versus RHP in 2017, Bour continues to slug against right-handed pitching. Even though his team context may lower his RBI totals, we can add Bour's power to our roster at a decent cost (NFBC ADP: 174).

Brad Ziegler, Drew Steckenrider - RPs, MIA

While Brad Ziegler may claim the early-season role as Miami’s closer, Drew Steckenrider has a chance to save twenty games in 2018. Ziegler missed fewer bats (9 SwStr%) in 2017 and spent 37 days on the DL with a strained back. When the opportunity arises, Steckenrider can create whiffs (14 SwStr% and 14.0 K/9) and throw first-pitch strikes (68 F-Strike%) consistently. A rising leverage index (1.34 LI) in the second-half illustrates Don Mattingly’s growing confidence in Steckenrider. Even though his ERA may move closer to his 3.14 xFIP in 2018, Steckenrider’s swing and miss pitches give him the ability to close out games. In deep leagues, you can wait until late (NFBC ADP: 371) in drafts to target Steckenrider's possible saves.

Myth 2: The Braves Bullpen is Set in Stone

Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter - RP, ATL

With the volatility in drafting closers, there are other possible relief pitcher options in Atlanta's bullpen behind Arodys Vizcaino.

Although it appears that Vizcaino is locked into the closer role, he spent 67 days on the DL in 2016 and missed 14 days in 2017. Yes, he misses bats (10.0 K/9 and 15 SwStr%) consistently, but allowing a number of fly balls (45 FB%) with increased hard-contact (33 Hard%) contributed to his 4.21 xFIP in 2017.

Some sites list Jose Ramirez (RHP) as the next in line. He made some improvements in 2017, as he increased his velocity on his fastball and induced more ground balls (46 GB%). His 3.19 ERA may be hard to repeat because his .226 BABIP was much lower than his career BABIP, and his 4.88 FIP tells more of the story.  Walks versus LHB (6.5 BB/9) were an issue in 2017.

Another possible option is A.J. Minter (LHP). In 15 innings pitched for Atlanta, the southpaw posted 26 strikeouts to two walks. Minter offers a fastball that averages 96 MPH and can touch 98 MPH. In 59 minor league IP, he struck out 77, walked 23, and posted a 2.14 ERA. While owners can draft Minter much later (NFBC ADP: 448), he also has an injury history with thoracic outlet syndrome and Tommy John surgery during his time at Texas A&M. If he can stay healthy, he has the skills to eventually win the closer's job.

Myth 3: Rhys Hoskins Will Definitely be the Most Valuable Hitter for the Phillies

If we use current ADP as a value guide, Rhys Hoskins (ADP:51) is clearly the most valuable hitter for the Phillies. When he was slugging his way through August with 11 home runs in 79 AB, he did not have as many swings and misses (15.2 K%) at the plate. Even when he drew more walks (20.8 BB%) in September, he also posted more strikeouts (26.7 K%). Yes, he has the minor league track record to support his production, and Steamer's projections are bullish on him with 37 projected home runs. Hoskins will need to show that he can adjust once pitchers make their 2018 adjustments.

With home run production up across all of MLB, there is another hitter that could get return close to Hoskins' value in rotisserie and H2H leagues.

Carlos Santana has a longer track record, and he has hit at least 20 home runs in five of the last six seasons. Santana's strong plate discipline throughout his career, which is supported by his career 15.2 BB%, 17 K%, and 81 contact%, bodes well for 2018. He makes hard contact 33% of the time, and he can hit well against RHP (.808 OPS) and LHP (.815 OPS). Steamer projects 27 home runs for the left-handed slugger, and he offers value at his current ADP, #182. Santana's steady production can also help out H2H owners.

Myth 4: The Mets Won't Find ABs for Wilmer Flores

With the signing of Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores is penciled in as a backup infielder for the Mets. The recent news should lower his draft stock (ADP: 318) even further over the next month.

In 2017, Flores increased his hard contact to 35.4 Hard%, posted a 46 FB%, and hit 18 home runs in 336 AB. Carrying over his FB%, maintaining his 2017 launch angle on FB%/LD% (27.3°), and holding his exit velocity gains (89.7 MPH in 2016; 91.3 MPH in 2017) on FB%/LD% would support his power going forward. With his ability to hit southpaws throughout this career, .838 career OPS versus LHP, he should find playing time on the short-side of the platoon. Luckily for Flores, his improvements against RHP, with a .765 OPS and 11 home runs in 233 AB, could open up more at-bats on the strong-side of the platoon.

With another 300-350 at-bats, Flores could match his 18 home runs for 2017, and an injury could open up more playing time to see if he can carry over his 2017 success vs. RHP.

Myth 5: Michael A. Taylor will offer the same value in 2018

After hitting 19 home runs in 2017, some fans are predicting that Michael A. Taylor will cross the 20-HR barrier in 2018.

Taylor increased his FB% to 37, and he supported his increased hard contact rate, 34 Hard%, with an exit velocity of 94.2 MPH (88th in MLB) on LD%/FB%. Holding the same rates could allow him to match Steamer's projection of 16 home runs, as his 20% HR/FB from 2017 could move closer to his 17% career-HR/FB.

Losing points in batting average could lower his 2018 value. Taylor rode a .351 BABIP versus RHP to post a .794 OPS against them, but his career .682 OPS and .318 career BABIP versus RHP is more indicative of his skills. Steamer projects Taylor to give back 26 points in batting average from .271 to .245. With a return to his career batting average of .243, he would lose R$ and H2H value in 2018.

On the plus side, Taylor's defense may continue to give him at-bats. Unfortunately, Taylor also has plenty of swing and miss (31.7 K%) in his game. With the return of Adam Eaton, monitor how Taylor handles the pressure to hold off Victor Robles for playing time.

More Myths to Debunk...

While these are just a few examples of NL East myths, there are others that we could research on our own. For example, we could spend time exploring the effect of Michael Conforto's injury on his 2018 at-bat totals. If he returns healthy in the summer, how will that affect at-bats for other New York OF? If his return takes longer, who will gain at-bats and possibly value?

As we continue to search for value in our drafts and auctions, we will look at myths and possible blind spots in the NL Central in the next article.

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