X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Myth Busters - Debunking Myths in the NL East

Fantasy baseball draft strategy and analysis. Brant Chesser debunks popular myths about the draft value of players in the National League East for 2018.

This series will attempt to help fantasy baseball owners make informed opinions on players whose ADP may not be in line with their value for the 2018 season.

As fantasy owners, we can fall into a "group think" mentality and start to overlook certain teams and players. If we aren't careful, those ideas can turn into blind spots in our search for value during our auctions and drafts.

To examine some possible scenarios that could differentiate from our pre-season viewpoints, we will debunk possible myths from teams and players in the NL East.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Myth 1: The Marlins Won't Have Players with Much Value

While the team context may lower the counting statistics for the Marlins hitters, there are Marlins players that can provide value to our fantasy teams.

Justin Bour - 1B, MIA

Even in a park that suppresses power, Justin Bour increased his hard-contact rate to 38.8 Hard% in 2017, and the fact that he posted the 37th best exit velocity, 95.3 MPH, on FB%/LD% in MLB illustrates his ability to put the barrel on the ball. His power can play in any park, as he slugged 14 home runs at Marlins Park in 2017. Justin Bour also improved his platoon splits. While he has struggled versus LHP throughout his career, he posted an .809 OPS with six home runs in 87 AB against southpaws in 2017. With a career .866 OPS versus RHP and a .929 OPS versus RHP in 2017, Bour continues to slug against right-handed pitching. Even though his team context may lower his RBI totals, we can add Bour's power to our roster at a decent cost (NFBC ADP: 174).

Brad Ziegler, Drew Steckenrider - RPs, MIA

While Brad Ziegler may claim the early-season role as Miami’s closer, Drew Steckenrider has a chance to save twenty games in 2018. Ziegler missed fewer bats (9 SwStr%) in 2017 and spent 37 days on the DL with a strained back. When the opportunity arises, Steckenrider can create whiffs (14 SwStr% and 14.0 K/9) and throw first-pitch strikes (68 F-Strike%) consistently. A rising leverage index (1.34 LI) in the second-half illustrates Don Mattingly’s growing confidence in Steckenrider. Even though his ERA may move closer to his 3.14 xFIP in 2018, Steckenrider’s swing and miss pitches give him the ability to close out games. In deep leagues, you can wait until late (NFBC ADP: 371) in drafts to target Steckenrider's possible saves.

 

Myth 2: The Braves Bullpen is Set in Stone

Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter - RP, ATL

With the volatility in drafting closers, there are other possible relief pitcher options in Atlanta's bullpen behind Arodys Vizcaino.

Although it appears that Vizcaino is locked into the closer role, he spent 67 days on the DL in 2016 and missed 14 days in 2017. Yes, he misses bats (10.0 K/9 and 15 SwStr%) consistently, but allowing a number of fly balls (45 FB%) with increased hard-contact (33 Hard%) contributed to his 4.21 xFIP in 2017.

Some sites list Jose Ramirez (RHP) as the next in line. He made some improvements in 2017, as he increased his velocity on his fastball and induced more ground balls (46 GB%). His 3.19 ERA may be hard to repeat because his .226 BABIP was much lower than his career BABIP, and his 4.88 FIP tells more of the story.  Walks versus LHB (6.5 BB/9) were an issue in 2017.

Another possible option is A.J. Minter (LHP). In 15 innings pitched for Atlanta, the southpaw posted 26 strikeouts to two walks. Minter offers a fastball that averages 96 MPH and can touch 98 MPH. In 59 minor league IP, he struck out 77, walked 23, and posted a 2.14 ERA. While owners can draft Minter much later (NFBC ADP: 448), he also has an injury history with thoracic outlet syndrome and Tommy John surgery during his time at Texas A&M. If he can stay healthy, he has the skills to eventually win the closer's job.

 

Myth 3: Rhys Hoskins Will Definitely be the Most Valuable Hitter for the Phillies

If we use current ADP as a value guide, Rhys Hoskins (ADP:51) is clearly the most valuable hitter for the Phillies. When he was slugging his way through August with 11 home runs in 79 AB, he did not have as many swings and misses (15.2 K%) at the plate. Even when he drew more walks (20.8 BB%) in September, he also posted more strikeouts (26.7 K%). Yes, he has the minor league track record to support his production, and Steamer's projections are bullish on him with 37 projected home runs. Hoskins will need to show that he can adjust once pitchers make their 2018 adjustments.

With home run production up across all of MLB, there is another hitter that could get return close to Hoskins' value in rotisserie and H2H leagues.

Carlos Santana has a longer track record, and he has hit at least 20 home runs in five of the last six seasons. Santana's strong plate discipline throughout his career, which is supported by his career 15.2 BB%, 17 K%, and 81 contact%, bodes well for 2018. He makes hard contact 33% of the time, and he can hit well against RHP (.808 OPS) and LHP (.815 OPS). Steamer projects 27 home runs for the left-handed slugger, and he offers value at his current ADP, #182. Santana's steady production can also help out H2H owners.

 

Myth 4: The Mets Won't Find ABs for Wilmer Flores

With the signing of Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores is penciled in as a backup infielder for the Mets. The recent news should lower his draft stock (ADP: 318) even further over the next month.

In 2017, Flores increased his hard contact to 35.4 Hard%, posted a 46 FB%, and hit 18 home runs in 336 AB. Carrying over his FB%, maintaining his 2017 launch angle on FB%/LD% (27.3°), and holding his exit velocity gains (89.7 MPH in 2016; 91.3 MPH in 2017) on FB%/LD% would support his power going forward. With his ability to hit southpaws throughout this career, .838 career OPS versus LHP, he should find playing time on the short-side of the platoon. Luckily for Flores, his improvements against RHP, with a .765 OPS and 11 home runs in 233 AB, could open up more at-bats on the strong-side of the platoon.

With another 300-350 at-bats, Flores could match his 18 home runs for 2017, and an injury could open up more playing time to see if he can carry over his 2017 success vs. RHP.

 

Myth 5: Michael A. Taylor will offer the same value in 2018

After hitting 19 home runs in 2017, some fans are predicting that Michael A. Taylor will cross the 20-HR barrier in 2018.

Taylor increased his FB% to 37, and he supported his increased hard contact rate, 34 Hard%, with an exit velocity of 94.2 MPH (88th in MLB) on LD%/FB%. Holding the same rates could allow him to match Steamer's projection of 16 home runs, as his 20% HR/FB from 2017 could move closer to his 17% career-HR/FB.

Losing points in batting average could lower his 2018 value. Taylor rode a .351 BABIP versus RHP to post a .794 OPS against them, but his career .682 OPS and .318 career BABIP versus RHP is more indicative of his skills. Steamer projects Taylor to give back 26 points in batting average from .271 to .245. With a return to his career batting average of .243, he would lose R$ and H2H value in 2018.

On the plus side, Taylor's defense may continue to give him at-bats. Unfortunately, Taylor also has plenty of swing and miss (31.7 K%) in his game. With the return of Adam Eaton, monitor how Taylor handles the pressure to hold off Victor Robles for playing time.

 

More Myths to Debunk...

While these are just a few examples of NL East myths, there are others that we could research on our own. For example, we could spend time exploring the effect of Michael Conforto's injury on his 2018 at-bat totals. If he returns healthy in the summer, how will that affect at-bats for other New York OF? If his return takes longer, who will gain at-bats and possibly value?

As we continue to search for value in our drafts and auctions, we will look at myths and possible blind spots in the NL Central in the next article.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF