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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 14of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
With about 40% of the season under our belts, teams and players are starting to take form. Expected stats are beginning to stabilize, and we can better understand a player's growth.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners
Before the season began, Moore was a very intriguing player to many. His 20/20 potential came with plenty of warts (high K%, playing time, and lack of track record). Well, the high K% remains, but that should not be a deal-breaker because league-wide K% is up from previous seasons. Moore is walking more than ever before (10.2%, up from his career 8.4% mark) to the opposite effect.
I get it. You see his batting average and think he should be tossed on the waiver wire heap. But when you consider that league-wide batting averages are down, his .198 BA is not too far off from others. Additionally, the batting average might be steadily climbing up. Since returning from the IL, Moore is 14-for-53 with a .264/.339/.453 slash line and .792 OPS.
Playing time won't hinder him either. Kyle Lewis and Evan White are injured, and Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager should get moved before the trade deadline. Plenty of playing time, an increasing batting average, and oh wait, he steals bases at an alarming rate? Yes! This is a great buy-low option that could be a huge return, especially for those fantasy managers that forgot to draft stolen bases.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals
Starting pitcher is becoming exceedingly problematic. Part of the problem is the injuries and lack of consistency. So, stray from the streamer options for a moment and take a look into Joe Ross. First, since the calendar flipped to June, Ross has pitched like an ace. No, he is not an ace, but he is putting up an ace-like month. In 32.1 IP in June, Ross showcases a 1.95 ERA and 33 Ks. Even better, his K-BB% is a staggering 21.1%; which is nearly double where it was for the first two months.
What is assisting in the success? Less changeups, more fastballs, and more sliders! His focus seems to stray away from using the changeup, and if I had to guess it's because the pitch generates very few whiffs. Additionally, when you look at a heatmap of the changeup location, you'll notice how erratic it is with command.
Okay, now that we have established how he is successful, let's look at what he is worth. This is where things get quite a bit more tricky. Moving forward for the rest of the season, we can't conclude that Ross will be a top 50 SP. However, I would put him in a tier of SP that can sit on your bench and get plugged in whenever he draws a favorable matchup. Ross is only rostered in 29% of leagues, so if he is on the wire, grab him. If not, start with a lower offer and work your way up, if needed.
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
Normally, I would try to steer clear of trading for batters riding a hot streak. However, I believe we are at the tip of the iceberg with him. In June, Gallo swatted ten bombs while hitting .263 and walking 23% of the time. Obviously, we know Gallo has elite HR power. In fact, in June, his .408 ISO only trails Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani.
Much like Dylan Moore, Gallo typically has a batting average that hurts your team. However, this year his .230 batting average is actually on par with the MLB average. So, someone in your league might be seeing overlooking that his Herculean power isn't as impressive because of the lower BA. While in reality, 2021 might be the perfect season to finally roster Gallo.
Part of making a deal work for Gallo is moving pieces from your team. At this point, I wouldn't be moving a viable SP for power since temperatures are heating up and HRs might be flying soon. My recommendation would be to offer up a two-for-one hitter deal.
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