RADIO
Jarod's 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers for home runs (HR) based on power surges in September. Targets these home run risers and values for fantasy baseball drafts.
If a player's final stat line for the year is ho-hum or their team doesn't make it to the playoffs, a strong September could go overlooked or forgotten when it comes time to draft fantasy teams the following season. This can lead managers to miss out on potential breakout candidates and/or players who will significantly outperform their ADP.
Why are we focusing on strong finishes? Well, when a player changes something in their swing that leads to a boost in power production, we, as fantasy managers, want to take notice. The player then has all of the offseason to refine that approach that made them so successful late in the year, and hopefully, they will carry that momentum into the next season.
The table below provides us with last September's HR leaders and their change in power metrics in September compared to their metrics through the end of August. In this article, we will look at five hitters who took a step forward with their power numbers in September, potentially providing us with sneaky home run-related value in our fantasy drafts.
Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks
September stats: .347/.385/.644, 9 HR, 18 RBI
Eugenio Suarez is no stranger to the long ball, having walloped as many as 49 back in 2019 and 31 in consecutive seasons between 2021 and 2022.
However, after hitting only 22 in 2023 as a 31-year-old and after a horrific start to 2024 in his age-32 season, it was fair for fantasy managers to wonder if his big power days were behind him.
The veteran third baseman slashed .196/.279/.312 with six home runs in 276 at-bats through the end of June, equivalent to 46 at-bats per home run (AB/HR).
The Venezuelan was rumored to be on the verge of losing his job at that point in the season, but he finally broke out and finished the year strong. The players we're focused on in this article had success in September, but Suarez's hot streak began in July.
After eclipsing 30 HR and 100 RBI last season, Eugenio Suárez cracks the #Top10RightNow list for the fourth time in his career. pic.twitter.com/YyMb4NvN5B
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 16, 2025
He smacked 10 home runs in 90 AB (9.0 AB/HR) in July, took a breather in August with a 20.8 AB/HR rate, and then finished ablaze, blasting nine homers over his final 101 AB (11.2 AB/HR).
Despite the sluggish start, the former All-Star finished with 30 HR with a .256/.469/.788 slash line, .337 wOBA, and a 115 wRC+. The 72.8 percent Contact% even ended up being his highest since 2019.
What does that mean for 2025? Well, fantasy managers should be able to expect at least another 25-homer season, but with a decline in barrel rate for three consecutive seasons now, it's going to be a challenge to get back to the 30-homer plateau.
With his high career K% of 27.1%, there will be bouts of streakiness to deal with, too, but in the end, solid RBI and run-scoring should also be expected, making the 11-year pro a valuable fantasy asset.
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
September stats: .316/.344/.579, 8 HR, 18 RBI
Michael Harris II started off 2024 strong, slashing .304/.339/.452 with three home runs, 13 RBI, 16 runs scored, and five stolen bases over the first month of the season. However, his bat went cold in May before a hamstring strain in mid-June put him on the IL.
The IL stint caused the former NL Rookie of the Year to miss two months, finally making his return in mid-August. He announced the return with a grand slam in his first game back and gave us a preview of what was to come to end the year.
The left-handed hitter went on a torrid stretch in September, tallying 11 multi-hit efforts in the month, which included eight home runs, 18 RBI, and 21 runs scored.
While many hitters heat up as the weather gets warmer, it seems a bit more pronounced for Harris so far in his career, as seen in the table below (acknowledging it's a limited sample size, especially in March/April).
For whatever reason, the former third-round draft pick goes cold in May, warms up in June, and puts it all together in the final two months.
He hasn't played in more than 138 games in a season to this point, yet he's clearly a multi-category contributor for fantasy when he's in the lineup.
Imagine if he were to produce from start to finish and play in closer to 150 games! Maybe 2025 will be the year, especially given a full offseason to fine-tune the swing that made him so scorching hot this past September.
The 23-year-old already costs a late third/early fourth-round pick, but if there are players you want to "reach" on, it should be multi-category producers with upside like Harris.
Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
September stats: .300/.386/.610, 8 HR, 20 RBI
Despite being his rookie season, Wyatt Langford had fantasy managers expecting big things in 2024 after hitting .365 with six home runs in 63 spring at-bats; however, he also reminded us that we can't put too much stock in spring results.
The 2023 first-round draft pick came out of the gates slow, slashing .222/.288/.286 with just a single home run over the first couple months of the season. Then Langford got hot, slashing .309/.368/.526 in June, but the power was still lacking as he went deep just three times that month.
The University of Florida product then went back into a midseason swoon, slashing .216/.293/.335 between July and August, popping only four more homers. But in September, the youngster finally put it all together, slashing .300/.386/.610 with eight home runs.
Of all the players in the first chart at the top of the page, Langford had the second-largest jump in HR/FB% in September compared to games played through the end of August (27.5%).
Not only that, we saw that when he is getting on base, he is a threat to run, stealing six bags in June and seven more in September, which accounted for 68% of his stolen base production on the season (19 total).
Langford missed some time in May, and despite some struggles, he was able to be a decent multi-category producer for fantasy, putting together a .253-16-74-74-19 line in 134 games. If the right-handed hitter can play more games in 2025, he should push for a 20/20 season.
But if he can also take a step forward -- he has the pedigree to do it -- then we could be talking about a strong fantasy producer across the board. The 23-year-old has an NFBC ADP of around 50 overall, so he's already a bit pricey, but he has the potential to outperform even that cost. Draft with confidence!
Lane Thomas, Cleveland Guardians
September stats: .264/.295/.560, 7 HR, 20 RBI
Despite hitting just .184 with two home runs in the first month of the 2024 season, Lane Thomas was able to keep his fantasy value afloat by swiping 11 bases during that time.
He missed most of May with an MCL sprain but bounced back with a hot June, slashing .276/.336/.524 with five home runs, 21 RBI, and 21 runs scored.
The former fifth-round draft pick had a better-than-average walk rate (9.4%) and strikeout rate (21.1%) through July 28 but was then traded to the Guardians.
The adjustment proved difficult, as the right-handed hitter saw his strikeout rate spike to 37.5% while his average dipped to .143 in a homer-less August.
Thomas was able to make some adjustments that led to an improved .264 average in September to go along with seven long balls (also six doubles) and 20 RBI. All in all, the six-year big leaguer finished 2024 with a .237-15-63-65-32 line.
Although it didn't stop there -- he had two postseason homers as well, his last one being a grand slam in the series-deciding victory over the Tigers, which came off eventual AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
Lane Thomas • 10/12/2024
🍁 Postseason 🍁
🎉 Grand Slam 🎉 pic.twitter.com/miBiXrJomp— Random Dingers (@randomdingers) January 21, 2025
If the 29-year-old can take that confidence and those September adjustments and leverage them throughout the 2025 campaign, a 20-homer season could be in the offing.
Not only that, he stole just four bases during the 53 games with Cleveland after totaling 28 in 77 games for the Nationals, so we could see an uptick in that department, too, now that he's comfortable with his new team.
If you miss out on the likes of Harris or Langford early, you can get similar production (albeit without the upside) for a much lower price later on if you grab Thomas.
Honorable Mention
Randal Grichuk, Arizona Diamondbacks
Perhaps it was a bit fluky, and maybe if he didn't miss so much time earlier in the season, there wouldn't be such a pronounced change in his power numbers, but it's worth at least pointing out Randal Grichuk's September power surge.
The former first-round draft pick had some of the biggest changes between the first part of the season and September while needing only seven at-bats per home run in the final month.
The 33-year-old will go undrafted in most leagues, but he's now back in Arizona on a one-year deal and could be worth a flier at the end of some drafts for power-needy managers.
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