FanDuel NBA DFS Picks for Today (Monday 3/17/25): Daily Fantasy Basketball Advice

These guys might fly under the radar but have the juice to pop off and separate your lineup from the pack.

Trey Murphy III - NOP - SF/PF ($7.6K)

Murphy’s stepping into a starring role tonight, and it’s hard not to love the setup. With Williamson (personal reasons)  sidelined, plus Murray out long-term with an Achilles rupture, the Pelicans are desperate for offense against Detroit. Murphy’s already humming along at 21.6 points per game with a 23% usage rate, but those numbers could balloon with New Orleans so shorthanded.

The Pistons play at a top-10 pace (ninth) and rank 14th in defensive rating, leaking points to wings like it’s their job (14.8 PPG allowed to SFs). Murphy’s been a minutes monster lately (35.6 per game), and with the Pels’ roster looking like a G-League squad, 38-40 minutes feels like the floor here.

At $7,600, he’s criminally underpriced for a guy who could flirt with 20+ shots—his 1.04 FD/M efficiency means 35+ FP is well within reach, and 45+ isn’t crazy if he gets hot from three. Ownership should stay modest with bigger names like Edwards and Cunningham soaking up attention, making Murphy a GPP dream. He’s your ticket to differentiation with slate-breaking upside.

Jalen Green - HOU - SG ($7.7K)

Green’s another Rocket licking his chops against the Sixers’ walking wounded. As we mentioned earlier, Philly’s backcourt is in shambles, Tyrese Maxey (back) is out, and Jared Butler’s a far cry from a lockdown defender, while their 26th-ranked defensive rating and 17th points allowed to SGs leave the door wide open.

Green’s averaging 21.3 points per game and trending up (+2.5 PPG over his last three), with a 27% usage rate that ensures he’s hunting shots. Houston’s rebounding dominance (first in Reb%) fuels fast breaks, and with a 119.0 implied total as 15-point favorites, the Rockets could turn this into a track meet. Green’s 0.99 FD/M efficiency is sneaky-good, and his recent 11.1 FP boost over three games shows he’s finding his rhythm.

At $7,700, he’s cheaper than teammate Sengun ($9,600), which should keep his ownership lower, perfect for GPPs. He’s got 40+ FP in his sights if he catches fire from deep, and a blowout could still see him pile up stats in garbage time. This is the kind of high-variance play that wins you tournaments when the stars align.

Desmond Bane - MEM - SG/SF ($8.8K)

Bane’s about to take center stage with Ja Morant sidelined (hamstring soreness), and this Grizzlies-Kings clash (241.5 total) has shootout written all over it. Bane’s at 18.6 points per game with a 23% usage rate, but without Morant, that usage has jumped into the high 20s or even 30% in past spot starts.

Sacramento’s pace (17th) and 19th-ranked defensive rating set up a fast, loose game, perfect for Bane’s scoring and sneaky playmaking (9.0 potential assists per game). The Kings bleed points to wings (10.5 PPG allowed to SGs), and their 11th-ranked 3-point defense could get torched if Bane’s jumpers keep falling. He’s been slightly down lately (-3.3 PPG over three games), but that’s more about Morant’s presence than Bane cooling off.

At $8,800, he’s a bargain for a guy who could see 35+ minutes and 20+ shots. Ownership might hover below the chalkiest guards like Edwards ($9,200) or Curry ($9,100, if he plays), giving you leverage in GPPs. A 30-point, 7-assist, 6-rebound line isn’t out of the question, think 50+ FP if the game stays close. Bane’s your GPP differentiator with a ceiling to match the slate’s elite.

Players around $6K who can unlock your roster without breaking the bank.

Miles McBride - NYK - PG/SG ($6.3K)

McBride’s stepping into the spotlight with Jalen Brunson sidelined (right ankle sprain), and this is the kind of opportunity DFS players dream about. He’s been a solid bench spark plug all season, averaging 19.9 FanDuel points per game across 24.5 minutes, but his recent surge (+12.4 FP over his last three) shows he’s ready to ball out as a starter.

Against Miami, he’ll likely see 35+ minutes, Brunson’s absence leaves a gaping hole at point guard, and the Heat’s 28th-ranked pace keeps this game plodding, giving McBride plenty of time to rack up stats. His 16% usage rate isn’t elite, but it’s jumped to 18% lately (+2%), and he’s been aggressive, averaging 9.4 points and 2.8 assists per game (up 5.1 PPG and 2.7 APG recently).

Miami’s 12th-ranked defensive rating is stingy, but their 7th rebounding rate could let McBride sneak in some boards, too (2.5 RPG). At $6,300, he’s a steal, his 0.81 FD/M efficiency projects to 28-32 FP in a full workload, with 35+ in reach if he shoots well. He’s a cash game lock for that safe 5x return and a GPP gem if he pops off for 40 FP. Don’t overthink this one; he’s a plug-and-play stud at this price.

Obi Toppin - IND - PF ($4.4K)

Toppin’s the definition of a value lottery ticket tonight, and the injury chaos in Indy could turn him into a jackpot. Pascal Siakam’s out (personal reasons), and Myles Turner’s questionable (left hip contusion), which thrust Toppin into a bigger role against Minnesota. He’s averaging 19.1 minutes per game off the bench, but if Turner sits, Toppin could easily hit 25-28 minutes, maybe more if the Pacers lean into small-ball against the Wolves’ frontcourt.

His 19% usage rate fuels 9.9 points per game, and he’s got a knack for explosive finishes and hustle stats (4.0 RPG). Minnesota’s a tough draw, 11th in rebounding rate and sixth in defensive rating, but Toppin’s athleticism and energy could still shine through, especially if Indy’s pace (eighth) keeps the game flowing.

At $4,400, he’s dirt-cheap; his 1.01 FD/M efficiency means 20-25 FP is the floor in an extended run, and a 30+ FP spike isn’t crazy if he gets hot. The downside is a crowded rotation if Turner plays, but at this price, you’re betting on the upside. He’s a GPP dart with cash game viability if the injury news breaks right, keep an eye on that injury report tonight.

Jabari Smith Jr. - HOU - PF ($5.4K)

We’re back in Houston for another value gem, and Smith Jr. is primed to feast on Philly’s crumbling frontcourt. The Sixers are down Embiid (knee), George (groin), and Drummond (toe), leaving Guerschon Yabusele as their main big, good luck with that against Houston’s size and rebounding prowess (1st in Reb%).

Smith’s averaging 11.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, and while his 16% usage rate is modest, it’s ticked up lately (+3%), and he’s coming off a +2.8 FP boost over his last three. The Rockets’ 119.0 implied total as 15-point favorites screams opportunity, and Philly’s 30th-ranked rebounding rate gives Smith the green light to crash the glass hard.

His 0.78 FD/M efficiency projects to 22-25 FP in his usual 30.7 minutes, but if he drains a couple of threes (he’s got the green light from deep), 30+ FP is in play. At $5,400, he’s a safe cash game filler, think 4-5x value with minimal risk, yet his upside makes him a GPP flex too. The Sixers’ 26th defensive rating won’t slow Houston down, and Smith’s role as a floor-spacing four next to Sengun ensures he’ll see clean looks. He’s the steady value piece that lets you splurge elsewhere.