RADIO
Tom Bellucco analyzes some MLB DFS lineup picks & sleepers for 8/27/15 on FanDuel fantasy baseball daily leagues. His DFS advice and value picks help you win on FanDuel.
Well, I knew it was coming. As hot as I was last week and the week before, the cold streak has hit hard. I withdrew some money from my FanDuel account, and since then I have lost 25% of my remaining bankroll. Well, I guess that’s what this game is about. We have a little over a month of regular season baseball left, and while some might look to football to relieve their misery, I’m not one of those people. Sure, I can’t wait to throw in a few lineups on Sundays, but I’m not going to give up on the MLB despite the seemingly heightened competition. Let’s try to finish strong in the month of September.
On Thursday, August 27th there are 11 games total. Five of those games will start prior to 7:05, so if you’re into playing an early slate, there are plenty of games to choose from today. That leaves six games for the night slate, which is a little less than ideal (at least for me) for a big tournament night. Regardless, I’ll try to give some advice for both slates to give the people what they want. Let’s get to it!
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Offenses to Target for FanDuel DFS (Pitchers to Pick On)
In the early slate on Thursday, there are a few pitchers to keep in mind when choosing hitters for your lineup. Once upon a time, the Dodgers used to maul right-handed pitchers, especially mediocre ones. They’ve gotten two lefties so far in this series at Great American Ball Park, and they finally get a righty in Anthony DeSclafani on Thursday. Big bats like Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, and even Yasiel Puig are not priced as high as they used to be. Taking a leap of faith on the idea that these Dodgers find their first half run-production again might not be a bad move here.
The Rangers lefties against Marco Estrada are certainly enticing on the early slate, but lefty Randy Wolf against the Angels might take the cake here. The Angels are a very righty-heavy lineup, and even the lefties that they roll out (cue Kole Calhoun) can hit lefties fairly well. I’m still toying with why Wolf if taking the mound in the majors in August, but regardless of the answer to that question, big Angels bats like Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron, and Erick Aybar are in play Thursday afternoon.
After taking a look, there are three pitchers to target in the late slate. Justin Nicolino becomes the third lefty in a row to start against the Pirates. While Brad Hand was extremely successful on Tuesday, Chris Narveson was throttled yesterday. I don’t think Nicolino will be as lucky as Hand on Thursday. It’s important to keep in mind the ball park factor, however. There have already been a handful of PNC Park homers that turned into outs for the Pittsburgh bats in this series. Andrew McCutchen made sure that wouldn’t happen twice to him yesterday, and he is on some kind of tear right now.
Aaron Harang is the next victim on our list. Remember what happened to every Phillies pitcher that was rolled out on Monday? And Tuesday and Wednesday for that matter? Yeah, that’s what’s going to happen if your pitcher has zero swing-and-miss stuff against that Mets offense. Harang could be in for a beating, as lefties and righties alike will be honed in on his fastball (or lack thereof).
Lastly, we have our friend Tommy Milone. While he does have a great first name, I don’t see him having a great outing against these Rays. Tampa Bay has crushed lefties this year to the tune of a .328 team wOBA vs. L. Milone has had his good starts here and there, but the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Kevin Kiermaier, and co. will have something to say on Thursday.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for FanDuel
Day: Madison Bumgarner (SP, SFG) - $12,600
You’re likely going to pay up for a pitcher on this early slate, and it’s going to be between Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner. While Greinke is $700 less and is certainly in line for a decent game against a below-average Reds offense (they have been surging recently, though), Bumgarner seems to have the safer and better matchup. The Cubs have been known to strikeout a lot this year, especially against lefties (24.4 K% vs. L), and Bumgarner certainly has strikeout ability. MadBum also gets to play in his own park, which is much less of a hitter’s park. While he might give up a solo shot or two, I think Bumgarner is able to rack up more strikeouts and has less risk in a bigger park.
Night: Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT) - $10,000
Cole has really slowed down in the recent weeks after quickly climbing to the mid-teens in wins. As mentioned earlier, the Pirates should be able to get him some run support in this one, and Cole’s stuff should be more than enough to wipe out this weak Marlins’ lineup. Aside from maybe Joe Ross and Carlos Rodon in tournaments due to their strikeout potential, I don’t see any reason why someone would stray from the Pirates’ ace in this beauty of a matchup.
DFS Infielders to Target for FanDuel
Night: Chris Stewart (C, PIT) - $2,200
Stewart is usually Cole’s catcher regardless of how many games Francisco Cervelli has played in a row, and after injuring his foot on Tuesday, I would be surprised to see the Pirates give the starting catcher another day off Thursday. For minimum price, you’ll get a catcher who hits lefties surprisingly well (.301 wOBA vs. L) and will certainly have guys on base ahead of him regardless of where he bats in the order.
Day: Adrian Gonzalez (1B, LOS) - $3,100
This price is simply too low for one of the better all-around hitters in the game. A-Gon has a four-game hitting streak going right now, and while he hasn’t homered in over a week, all it takes is one well-struck fly ball in Cincinnati. Gonzalez’ 142 wRC+ against righties is too good to pass up here.
Day: Chase Utley (2B, LOS) - $2,300
After facing lefties for the past two days, it will be interesting to see if Don Mattingly puts Utley back in the leadoff spot against a righty. If so, I will certainly have a piece of his almost-minimum price tag against a righty in DeSclafani. If not, I may have to pay up for Rougned Odor (as long as he is healthy and in the lineup).
Night: Evan Longoria (3B, TAM) - $2,500
As hard as it is to ever trust Longoria, especially this season, his price and matchup with a mediocre lefty screams opportunity. And if that didn’t spark your interest, how about the fact that he doubled and homered yesterday? Stop thinking about it and just do it. It will allow you to pay up elsewhere, and you just might get some production from him.
Day: Erick Aybar (SS, LAA) - $2,400
Aybar was seemingly finding his groove before his 0-3 game yesterday. But hey, a no-hitter through eight innings can do that to you. He gets the no-where-near-Verlander-like Randy Wolf on Thursday, so expect Aybar to get back on track and set the table for a big revenge game from the Halos.
DFS Outfielders to Target for FanDuel
Day: J.D. Martinez (OF, DET) - $3,700
When paying up in the outfield for the day slate, how can you not consider Martinez? He seems to be turning into the hulk version of himself again, as he has nine hits, three doubles and two homers during this six-game hitting streak. Martinez actually hits better against righties with a wOBA vs. R that is seven points higher than his wOBA vs. L (.389 vs. .382).
Day: Yasiel Puig (OF, LOS) - $2,700
Mine as well stick with the hot bats when paying down on the day slate. Puig is hitting a very hitter-friendly park, and he’s turning his season around right now with a nine-game hitting streak. He has two homers during this streak, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tallied another one on Thursday.
Night: Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM) - $4,300
There are so many routes you can take when paying up for outfield in the night slate, so that’s definitely something to keep in mind when building your infield. With that being said, how can you turn away from Cespedes right now? He has five homers and a triple in his past six games, and he gets Harang fastballs in Citizen’s Bank Park. Plug and play.
Night: Norichika Aoki (OF, SFG) - $2,500
The days of guaranteeing two-hit nights for Aoki are seemingly gone, but that doesn’t mean you can’t use him at this price. He should leadoff against Dan Haren, and Aoki’s ability to get on base and swipe a bag are huge pluses to consider when offsetting your high-priced players. He even hit a homer yesterday, so you never know.
Good luck with your FanDuel and DFS lineups RotoBallers!
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