Week 17 NFL Bets and Props for Novig (Sunday, 12/28)

Dave offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 17. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

There are just two weeks left in the 2025 NFL season. It's been a long and tiring year. Hopefully, the grind was worthwhile, and you earned some money along the way.

The Sunday slate this week is a bit smaller than usual. There are just 10 games on the card. Still, there's some value out there and profit to be made. So let's not waste any more time and get to the action.

Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Let's discuss some of my favorite NFL bets and player props on Novig for Sunday's games!

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What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

For example, if you set the odds of the Panthers to win on Sunday at +150, then anyone can flip the bet and take the Buccaneers to win at -150 on their end.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread

Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 (-118 NOVIG) vs. New York Giants

Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1 Unit

The Giants are fresh off another disappointing loss, while the Raiders are coming off arguably their best performance of the year in a 23-21 loss to the Houston Texans. Normally, that would make this an ideal time to fade Las Vegas.

However, this game really sets up well for what the Raiders and head coach Pete Carroll want to do on offense. The Giants have arguably the worst rushing defense in football and allow a whopping 150.9 rushing yards per game. This looks like an ideal spot for the Raiders to rely on their prized rookie running back, Ashton Jeanty, and ride their ground game to a win. Given how he performed against the Houston Texans last week (188 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns), it would be wise for Las Vegas to lean on its rushing attack here.

That’s ultimately what I believe will be the case. The Giants are also a dysfunctional mess right now, and interim head coach Mike Kafka seems more interested in running out the clock on the season than further developing rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart.

Las Vegas initially opened as a small favorite, but we've seen the line flip in favor of the Giants. I disagree with the market and do not believe the Giants should be favored here, regardless of the shenanigans bettors believe are being played by Las Vegas for the first overall pick.

Expect to see a heavy dose of Jeanty, while Las Vegas cruises to its third win of the season.

Houston Texans +1.5 (-104 NOVIG) at Los Angeles Chargers

Risk 1.04 Units to Win 1 Unit

Both of these teams are coming off victories in Week 16. This is a rematch from the Wild Card Round of last year’s playoffs. The Texans' defense completely shut down Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense to pick up a convincing 32-12 victory.

It’s hard to see this game going much differently for Los Angeles as the Texans' defense remains arguably the best in football. The Chargers are also dealing with a slew of offensive line injuries, and that could really be a problem against a Texans front that ranks second in PFF’s pass-rushing grade.

I’m not sure why Los Angeles is favored here, and I make this game closer to a pick 'em. Look for the Texans' defense to once again smother Herbert and the Chargers' offense while C.J. Stroud does just enough to get the job done. Texans win outright.

NFL Week 17 Passing Prop Bets

Trevor Lawrence OVER 233.5 Passing Yards (-120) NOVIG

Risk .6 Units to Win .5 Units

Even though he accounted for six touchdowns two weeks ago against the New York Jets, Lawrence is coming off maybe the most impressive game of his entire career in Week 16. Against a Denver Broncos defense that is arguably the best in football, Lawrence threw for 279 passing yards and three touchdowns as Jacksonville scored an impressive 34-20 victory.

Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington for the TD!

JAXvsDEN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/cHFgVwot0m

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

Now, Lawrence draws a great matchup to keep his hot streak going. The Colts allow an average of 243 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and were just torched by Brock Purdy for 295 passing yards and five touchdowns last week. Indianapolis also ranks 29th in PFF’s pass coverage grade.

This is a good spot for Lawrence to make another run at 300 yards, and he could have another blow-up game. Look for the Jaguars to continue riding Lawrence’s hot streak to score the victory here. I’d play this number up to 249.5.

NFL Week 17 Rushing Prop Bets

Ashton Jeanty OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-116) NOVIG

Risk 1.16 Units to Win 1 Unit

Since I like the Raiders to win this weekend, it would make sense to target Jeanty in this matchup. The Giants rank dead last in defensive rushing DVOA and PFF’s rushing defense grade.

We're looking at another positive game script for Jeanty here, and that should ensure plenty of volume. That means the Raiders' rookie is live to eclipse triple digits for the third time this year.

Omarion Hampton UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) NOVIG

Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit

Even though he missed a chunk of the season with an ankle injury, Hampton has had a super impressive rookie season. Among 50 RBs with 85+ carries, Hampton ranks:

• Fifth in PFF rushing grade
• Fourth in PFF elusive rating
• 10th in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected per attempt

Omarion Hampton goes 54 yards for the TD!

LACvsNYG on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/G9X4Jx5KPG

— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025

Unfortunately, this weekend is a bad matchup for him. The Houston Texans rank first in defensive rushing DVOA and have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Texans also have allowed the fewest explosive rushing yards in the league.

Even if Kimani Vidal misses this game, I have a hard time seeing Hampton eclipsing this total. The Chargers' offensive line injuries, combined with a fantastic Houston rush defense, make this a perfect time to fade Hampton. Yes, Houston was just torched by Ashton Jeanty last week, but I expect that to be a wake-up call, and think we’ll see a more focused Texans defense this weekend.

I’d play this line down to 55.5.

NFL Week 17 Receiving Prop Bets

Chris Olave OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110) NOVIG

Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit

Olave is in the middle of a career season and has already set career highs in receptions and receiving touchdowns. He’s also on pace to set a new career high in receiving yards. Olave is coming off a big Week 16, where he caught 10 receptions for 148 yards and scored two touchdowns.

Taysom Hill to Chris Olave extends the Saints lead!

NYJvsNO on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/BtGSwXSho2

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

He now draws a fantastic matchup in Week 17 as Tennessee ranks 27th in defensive passing DVOA. The Titans have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this year, but the team also ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing WR1s and allows an average of 73.3 receiving yards per game to the position.

We should see Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough continue to rely on Olave, which will bode well for Olave's outlook.

NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Bets

Michael Carter anytime TD (+115) NOVIG

Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15 Units

Carter led the Arizona backfield in touches and yards last week. He even averaged an impressive 5.9 yards per carry.

Now he goes up against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that’s been awful against opposing running backs. Cincinnati ranks 31st in PFF’s rushing grade and has allowed 20 touchdowns to running backs this season, which is tied for the second most in the league.

Even though Joe Burrow is back healthy and playing well, the Bengals' defense remains a major liability. That should ensure the Cardinals stay competitive here, and it should give Carter plenty of chances to find the endzone. I like taking a shot on him to score at plus odds.

More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks

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