EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchweek 18: English Premier League

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

It was a profitable return to the EPL for us with our smaller stakes in the individual matches fairing well and hitting a parlay to finish off the match week. Matchweek 19 begins less than 24 hours after Matchweek 18 ends so we'll take a cautious approach over the next two sets of fixtures with the games coming around so rapidly.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks

• Match results: 73-83
• Total picks: 66-84-8
• Parlays: 7-21
• ROI: 96.25% (-5.06 units)

 

Friday, December 30th, 2022

Brentford (+281) at West Ham United (+107) 2:45 pm ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 1 Brentford

West Ham let a 1-0 half-time lead at Arsenal slip away on Monday, suffering a 3-1 defeat. They looked dangerous on the counter-attack but they'll need to force the issue more at home to Brentford and with ten of their 14 points this season coming at home, you'd expect that to suit them more.

Brentford also dropped points from a winning position on Boxing Day, drawing 2-2 with Tottenham after leading 2-0 in the second half. Only three teams have conceded more away goals than Brentford (18) this season with their solitary away win coming at Manchester City in the final game before the World Cup.

Betting pick: Most corners taken - Brentford (+275) 0.5 units

This is a game I can make a strong case for any result to occur and any number of goals to be scored so I'll hedge with a higher odds corner bet. West Ham has conceded more corners than they've taken in four of their eight home games while Brentford has taken more corners than their opponents in three of their eight away games (one tie). Brentford's hard press might force plenty of corners at both ends so leaning into the away side taking more at these odds looks like a lively outsider.

Player to watch: Lucas Paquetá

The Brazilian had a so-so World Cup but has been showing signs of life at West Ham in recent appearances. On Monday, he was playing deeper than he would have liked but still seemed to be a probable source of creativity. I expect he'll be in a more advanced role at home against Brentford so adding to his team-leading two assists (in just eight starts) is a distinct possibility.

 

Leicester City (+796) at Liverpool (-297) 3:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 1 Leicester City

Liverpool kick-started their push for a top-four finish by beating Aston Villa 3-1 on Monday, their third straight league win. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have scored more home goals than Liverpool (21) and their signing of Dutch starlet Cody Gakpo was a signal of their intent to have a strong second half of the season.

Leicester City was blown away at home against Newcastle United on Monday, conceding twice inside seven minutes before losing 3-0. They had kept five clean sheets in their previous six EPL games but this was an issue for them earlier in the season when they conceded 24 goals in their first nine games.

Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+109) 1 unit

Leicester has scored in all eight away games and despite keeping a clean sheet in their last three road trips, only two teams have conceded more on their travels this season than Leicester (19). I expect Liverpool to win but they have only three clean sheets from their eight home games and conceded at least once in their last five EPL games.

Player to watch: Mo Salah

Salah has been showing signs of life recently and had a goal and assist in Liverpool's 3-1 win at Aston Villa. The World Cup break might have given him a rest he desperately needed and the most expensive player in FPL might end up justifying his pricetag during the next few months.

 

Saturday, December 31st, 2022

Manchester United (-106) at Wolves (+325) 7:30 am ET

Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 2 Manchester United

Wolves moved off the bottom of the table on Monday, beating Everton 2-1 away with almost the last kick of the game. It was a solid start for new manager Julen Lopetegui, especially after they went behind in the seventh minute. It was only the second time this season they had managed to score more than once in a game and the first time away from home.

Manchester United comfortably dispatched Nottingham Forest 3-0 at home on Tuesday to move within a point of fourth place. They've been struggling with defensive injuries and issues and had to play Luke Shaw at center-back on Tuesday and that could be an area in which they are vulnerable on the road less than four days after their last game.

Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-113) 1 unit

Wolves carried a more significant goalscoring threat in their first game under Lopetegui's management and despite their goalscoring struggles this season, they've found the net in five of their last seven EPL games. Manchester United has conceded in each of their last five away EPL games and 12 in total during that spell but they have scored in each away game since their first of the season (4-0 loss at Brentford).

Player to watch: Bruno Fernandes

No player has created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Bruno Fernandes (32). His 28 shots are the second most for Manchester United (behind Marcus Rashford with 35), yet only has two goals and one assist to show for it. I expect that to change before the calendars turn to 2023.

 

Crystal Palace (+156) at Bournemouth (+204) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 1 Crystal Palace

Bournemouth dropped to a 2-0 defeat at Chelsea on Tuesday, in what was largely a drab performance. At home, Bournemouth has three wins, two draws, and three losses with two of the defeats coming against first-placed Arsenal and last-placed Southampton. Their inconsistency makes them a tough team to predict.

Crystal Palace suffered a disappointing 3-0 loss at home to Fulham on Monday, in part due to the referee being a day late giving out his cards. Palace had two players sent off (both quite harshly) when the score was 1-0 so it's hard to gauge exactly where they are after the World Cup break.

Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+232) 0.5 units

Palace has only one away win this season, scoring just five goals in their seven road trips. Five of Bournemouth's last six home games have been decided by one goal with two draws so expect a tight game and the points being shared is a probable outcome.

Player to watch: Marc Guehi

Guehi was suspended for Palace's game on Monday and replacement James Tomkins was sent off so they will want the reassurance their center-back brings to the side, especially after conceding three at home for the first time this season. Bournemouth has also conceded more setpiece goals than any other team so he may fancy his chances to pop up with a goal too.

 

Southampton (+286) at Fulham (+108) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Fulham 3 - 1 Southampton

Fulham's 3-0 win at Crystal Palace was their biggest away win of the season and the third time they've scored three goals in a game on their travels. The 27 goals Fulham have scored this season are the sixth most in the league but the 26 conceded are the sixth most also.

Southampton's 3-1 home defeat against Brighton saw them drop to the bottom of the table and was their fourth consecutive loss. They've now conceded ten goals in their last three EPL games and have just one clean sheet this season while scoring only 14 goals in their 16 games. Issues at both ends of the pitch will need rectifying if they are to avoid relegation.

Betting pick: Single-game parlay - A goal in both halves, Fulham to score 2+ goals and over 2.5 total goals (+155) 2 units

I'm expecting goals and with good reason. There have been 27 goals in Fulham's eight home games with both teams scoring in the last five and Fulham has scored two or more in five of their last six home games. Southampton has conceded 15 in their eight away games and three or more in each of their last three games.

Player to watch: Aleksandar Mitrović

Mitrović managed to anger FPL managers despite scoring a goal and picking up two assists on Monday. After being doubtful to play due to injury, he started for Fulham yet was on most FPL team's benches. He's scored in five of the seven home games he's played (six in total) so certainly enjoys playing in front of the Fulham fans and another goal here wouldn't come as any sort of surprise.

 

Everton (+2151) at Manchester City (-579) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 0 Everton

Manchester City was made to work for their win at Leeds on Wednesday night. After cruising into a 3-0 lead, the hosts hit back but couldn't quite force a second to set up a grandstand finish with City running out 3-1 winners. That moved City back into second place but with less time to recover for this set of fixtures than anyone else, they may be forced to utilize their ridiculously deep squad more than some of their rivals.

Everton's last-minute home defeat against Wolves heaped the pressure on boss Frank Lampard and leaves them just one point off the relegation zone. Their run of four points from eight games leaves them in serious peril going into this weekend's game and a significant turnaround in their fortunes will be needed if they are to avoid dropping out of the Premier League this season.

Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Manchester City over 2.5 goals and Everton under 0.5 goals (+188) 0.5 units

Manchester City has scored 30 goals in their eight home games, hitting three or more in six of them. They'll want to prove their 2-1 defeat at home to Brentford just prior to the break was only a blip. Everton looks like a side on the brink of sacking Lampard and although they've conceded more than two goals in a game only once this season, they've conceded at least two in each of their last three games. Everton has also failed to score in each of their last four away games.

Player to watch: Erling Haaland

There's not much left to say about Haaland. He's on course to break all sorts of records having scored 20 goals in his first 14 EPL games, 13 of which have come at home. He failed to find the net against Brentford and the only other time he didn't score in a home game, he went on to score a hat-trick in his next three home games. I'm not saying we'll see a repeat but would you bet against it, especially after Wednesday night's brace?

 

Leeds United (+555) at Newcastle United (-196) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 - 1 Leeds United

Newcastle United cemented their top-four (and possible title) credentials with their 3-0 win at Leicester City in which they blitzed their opponents in the first half. It was their sixth consecutive league win, a run that has seen them score 15 goals and concede just two. Dare they dream of a title challenge yet?

Leeds put up a spirited fightback against Manchester City on Wednesday but left themselves too much to do in the end, and with a short turnaround before this game, their midweek efforts may have taken a toll. They'll need to dig deep again against another side in the top three if they are to avoid back-to-back defeats to get their EPL resumption underway.

Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Newcastle to win, Newcastle over 0.5 first-half goals, and Newcastle over 1.5 goals (+108) 1 unit

Newcastle showed no signs of slowing down after the World Cup break with their demolition job of Leicester. Only three teams have conceded more first-half away goals than Leeds (10) while Newcastle has scored three or more in three of their last four EPL games

Player to watch: Miguel Almirón

If FPL managers weren't sure whether or not Almirón's form was just a random purple patch prior to the World Cup, he went and scored his ninth EPL goal of the season on Monday. He's now scored in five of his last six games and eight in his last nine. That rate won't sustain but it's not showing signs of slowing down right now either.

 

Arsenal (+113) at Brighton (+257) 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Arsenal

Brighton's 3-1 win at Southampton on Monday was their third win in their last four EPL games and the seventh time in eight away games they've found the net. After three blanks in De Zerbi's first four games in charge, Brighton has scored in each of their last five EPL games, with 12 in total.

Arsenal showed their title credentials on Monday having to overcome a 1-0 half-time deficit against West Ham to eventually win 3-1. They also proved they can score goals without star striker Gabriel Jesus, who is sidelined for a few more weeks, with understudy Eddie Nketiah finding the net in the game.

Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+102) 0.5 units

Something that has gone under the radar during Arsenal's terrific start to the season is their defensive solidity away from home. They've kept six clean sheets in their eight away games and there have been two or fewer total goals in each of their last four away games. Brighton's away games yield more goals than their home games with a total of nine coming in De Zerbi's four home games (five of which came in their match against Chelsea).

Player to watch: Martin Odegaard

Odegaard was majestic in Arsenal's win against West Ham and is their joint-leading scorer (six) while also being tied third for assists (four). Four of his goals have come away from home and his ability to pick locks in the final third has been crucial for Arsenal this season.

 

Sunday, January 01st, 2023

Aston Villa (+395) at Tottenham (-140) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 Aston Villa

Tottenham salvaged a point on Monday, drawing 2-2 at Brentford after trailing 2-0. It was the eighth straight game in all competitions in which they've conceded the first goal and was the fifth consecutive EPL game in which they've conceded two or more goals.

Aston Villa had a spirited display against Liverpool on Monday, ultimately losing 3-1. But there's been signs of encouragement under Unai Emery since his appointment as Head Coach. Villa's two losses under Emery's stewardship have both been to sides in the top six but they also beat fifth-placed Manchester United 3-1 since Emery took charge.

Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+130) 0.75 units

Tottenham has now conceded two or more goals in five straight EPL games and has conceded the first goal in eight games across all competitions. Emery has only been in charge of four EPL games at Villa but they've found the net in three of them despite all the matches being against teams currently in the top seven in the league table. They've also yet to keep a clean sheet since Emery's appointment.

Player to watch: Dejan Kulusevski

Harry Kane continues to score the goals that have been dragging Tottenham back into games but it's Kulusevski, leading the team in assists (five), who has provided the creative spark that's led to their comebacks on more than one occasion recently. He missed games with an injury so has only started eight EPL games with only Kevin de Bruyne having more assists per 90 minutes than the Swede.

 

Chelsea (-137) at Nottingham Forest (+425) 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Chelsea

Nottingham Forest's dreadful away form continued with a 3-0 defeat at Manchester United on Tuesday but they have been decent at home, picking up 11 points from the eight games in front of their fans. They have only lost by more than one goal once at home and are unbeaten in their last four home games.

Chelsea ended a run of five games without a win and three straight losses on Tuesday when they beat Bournemouth 2-0. Their first-half performance was arguably their best since Graham Potter took charge but they'll need to improve on the 11 goals scored in their nine EPL games under Potter's management.

Betting pick: Draw no bet - Nottingham Forest (+299) 0.25 units

I still do not trust Chelsea despite their win on Tuesday and Forest has been solid at home with no one being able to tear them apart as they experience on their travels. Chelsea has only scored seven goals in their eight away games so if Forest can find the net, they stand a great chance of getting a point and another 1-0 home win isn't out of the question.

Player to watch: Mason Mount

Mount scored and assisted a goal in Chelsea's win against Bournemouth and he might have to carry the attacking burden for a team that has lacked a cutting edge this season. His five 'goal involvements' are tied most on the team and he also ranks second in shot-creating actions and shots so Chelsea will look to him as they try to get out of their recent poor form.

 

Parlays

Moneyline - Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Newcastle United to win (+392) 1 unit

Over 1.5 total goals - West Ham/Brentford, Bournemouth/Crystal Palace, and Tottenham/Aston Villa (+109) 2 units

 

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

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