A One Man Mock: Rookie Dynasty Drafts (Non-Superflex)

June 2, 2021

Chris Gregory gives his dynasty rookie mock draft for non-Superflex leagues. Who gets drafted early and who gets drafted late?

With the NFL Draft in our rearview mirror, Dynasty Rookie Draft season is well underway, and the start of Dynasty Startup season is just around the corner. That means that many of you are actively wondering what to do with this year’s rookie class. It’s a fair question, and the answer to that query will largely depend on the format of your leagues.

If you play in fantasy leagues that start only one quarterback at a time (Non-Superflex), the 2021 rookie class will be admittedly top-heavy. NFL teams did fantasy managers a disservice by sending some of the best talents in college football (Rashod Bateman, Javonte Williams, and Travis Etienne) to questionable fantasy situations. With multiple skill position players landing in iffy fantasy spots, the value of a top-seven pick in Non-Superflex Rookie Drafts will be at a premium. On the flip side, those playing in Superflex leagues should have a much more exciting experience with this 2021 class. The Superflex format effectively adds four additional high-caliber rookies to your draft pool thanks to an increased demand for the services of Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. If you play in Superflex, you can expect to see an immediate fantasy starter sitting there at pick #12… which isn’t necessarily the case in single-QB leagues.

Given the disparity in how this year’s rookie crop looks, we will be putting out two different early Rookie Mock Drafts for you. Here we will attack a Non-Superflex Rookie Draft class with four rounds of projections, while we will address Superflex drafts.

Round 1

The Crimson Tide Dilemma: One of the bigger debates amongst dynasty managers is which former Alabama receiver is the better fantasy asset, DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle. The answer to this question will depend on what kind of format you play in. Waddle is unquestionably the more explosive Tide receiver, and he has the more accurate quarterback behind him. That should be enough to make him the choice in dynasty Non-PPR scoring. However, Smith’s elite ability to get open and his clearer path to significant targets (there’s no Will Fuller V or DeVante Parker on his team) make him the better selection in PPR formats and in redraft leagues.

Where to Take the First QB: There simply isn’t a high demand for quarterbacks in single quarterback fantasy formats. There are usually 12-15 quarterbacks worth playing in Non-Superflex at any time, so most Non-Superflex dynasty teams don’t have a need at the position. As a result, you should expect most of this year’s elite quarterbacks to fall into the second round. Lawrence is so talented that he will go in the first of most drafts, but rarely will any other QB.

Bateman’s a Risky Bet in the First: Rashod Bateman is currently being over-drafted in Rookie Drafts. We say this because we don't love the offensive system he is joining, not because we don’t like Bateman’s talent. In the eight seasons that Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman has been an NFL offensive coordinator, only one of his offenses has averaged 30 or more pass attempts per game (the 2014 49ers averaged 30.4 attempts). Roman has consistently been a run-heavy play-caller, and there's nothing in his history or the skillset of Lamar Jackson that suggests it will change.

Expect Mark Andrews to continue to see approximately 27% of this team’s targets per game, which will leave approximately 19-20 for everyone else. Bateman will need to see at least 40% of those leftover targets to return value on his current ADP, and Jackson’s history of spreading the ball around to multiple receivers suggests that may not happen.

Round 2

Elijah Moore is a Bargain in Round 2: Remember the rapport that Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins developed during rookie camps last year and the advantage that gave Higgins over established veterans like Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green? Well, Elijah Moore could develop that same kind of chemistry with Zach Wilson during their rookie camps and off-season work. That rapport could give the Ole Miss product an early target advantage over Denzel Mims and Corey Davis. As a result, Moore is the fourth-most likely receiver in this class to become his team’s WR1, which raises his fantasy value above that of Bateman and Rondale Moore.

A Run on QBs Happens Later in Non-Superflex… But it Happens:  The only rookie RBs left at the start of the second round are insurance backs (formerly known as handcuffs), and Elijah Moore is the only receiver without major concerns about his health, upside, or opportunities. That’s why you should anticipate an earlier expected run on QBs this year, even in Non-Superflex formats. Many managers will prefer stashing Lance and Fields on their bench rather than investing in a risky WR or an RB who is the backup on his own team.

Round 3

The Swarm for Insurance Backs: Given how shallow the RB position is in fantasy, it’s no surprise that managers are turning towards lottery ticket runners with their third-round rookie picks. James Robinson was a diamond in the rough, so it’s natural for fantasy managers to cast a wide net looking for another when there aren’t many better options left on the board.

The most undervalued option amongst this third-round running back run is the 49ers’ Elijah Mitchell. The Louisiana product is fast, has a solid build, showed natural pass-catching hands at the Senior Bowl, and his one-cut style fits the Kyle Shanahan scheme. The Shanahan family has turned multiple late-round backs into fantasy-relevant weapons over the years, and Mitchell’s fit for this scheme means he could be their next bargain. Look for his floor to be a backup who can break big plays and average 5-10 touches per game, but the upside is he could prove a better long-term fit for San Francisco’s scheme than Trey Sermon.

Round 4

My Long-Term Sleeper of the 2021 Class: Ihmir Smith-Marsette should be considered the lead candidate to fill Minnesota's open spots at kick returner and WR3 this year. However, Smith-Marsette’s true fantasy value lies in his potential to replace Adam Thielen as the team’s WR2 in 2023 or 2024. At that point, the Vikings could be led by a higher upside passer than Kirk Cousins and a more pass-oriented coordinator than Klint Kubiak. If you can afford to stash Smith-Marsette on your bench or in your TAXI for two or three years, he should far outperform his current undrafted ADP.

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