RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira on 11/12/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We're back with a numbered event this weekend as the UFC will hold its 281st such night at no less than the Madison Square Garden in New York. It's going to be a month from this weekend to that of UFC 282, though we're slowly but surely inching closer to the UFC 300 Spectacular. No hurries, though, as long as we keep getting top-notch events such as the one ahead.
Adesanya and Pereira headline an event in which the two will go against each other for the fourth time in their personal affair with Pereira in possession of a 2-1 record. Huh, what!? That's right, but that record comes from an all-fight-styles-and-competitions tally as they are meeting inside an Octagon for the first time this weekend. Not only will they fight for a title, but also two women in Esparza and Weili will go against each other for the right to lift the Strawweight stripe. And that will only cap a night full of past and present superstars making cameos throughout it all.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira on 11/12/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Israel Adesanya (C), $8600 - vs. Alex Pereira
You have seen the video. Yes, Pereira knocked Adesanya out cold in 2017 as part of a kickboxing fight. Now, let's move on from that inconsequent event. These two, past, present, and future, are legitimate contenders every time they step inside the Octagon. No matter how many or few viral videos are out there.
Adesanya is known for his perfect record in the UFC (12-0 with the forgivable exception of that ill-advised fight against Jan Blachowicz in March of last year, making it 12-1 in all-division fights). Pereira, although only with three fights under his belt in Dana's promo, hit the ground running and is 3-0 with two KOs to his name. Can't get much better, can it?
Pereira started slow with a couple of victories against 28th- and 82nd-percentile fighters in the DKFP leaderboards but is coming off a first-round KO of Sean Strickland (90th). Adesanya has only one fight against a sub-86th-pctl fighter in his division in the past three years and a half, and that's his most recent one against Jared Cannonier.
It's been three consecutive decision-win, successful title defenses for Adesanya who has not KO'd a man since Sep. 2020 (Paulo Costa). As great as he's been, Adesanya is light years from his peak in the fantasy realm. His early-career KO-prowess is now gone and his ceiling is at around 90 DKFP when he reaches the final buzzer.
Pereira's scored 85.5, 84, and 112.5 DKFP in his three fights showing a much higher floor and the same KO-driven absolute ceiling as Adesanya boasts. Even with Pereira having a 2-1 overall record over Adesanya in all fighting disciplines, this is the UFC and Adesanya has been untouchable in the promo.
Add the late virality of that 2017 KO video and Israel Adesanya will be more than determined to exit the Octagon still in possession of the belt. Not the best fantasy fighter out there these days, but you gotta err on the safe side and go with Adesanya if you have to grab shares of one of these two.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Zhang Weili, $9400 - vs. Carla Esparza (C)
It took Esparza more than a few fights to lift the ultimate trophy but she finally did it in May when she defeated Rosa Namajunas for the W'SW division title. The road was rough and bumpy from 2015 through 2018 but Esparza has not lost a fight since she did for the last time in September 2018, having won six straight on her way to grabbing the belt.
Weili has gone in the opposite direction as she won her first five fights (including a title defense against legend Joanna Jedrzejczyk) only to go 1-2 in her most recent three. She is coming off a victory, though, having defeated Joanna once more and for the second time last June via second-round knockout.
Esparza and Weili both boast very complete skill sets. While only having one KO victory each in the past three years, they have shown that ability at one point or another. Weili is the only one having won a fight via submission, though that happened in Nov. 2018 against 44th-pctl in DKFP Jessica Aguilar.
When it comes to striking, Weili has a clear edge in terms of volume thus raising her floor over Esparza's. Since 2020, she's averaged more than 11 SSA/min compared to Esparza's 5 SSA/min in the same span. Grappling or at least the mat game might decide this fight in fantasy contests.
Esparza has gone for 51 (!) takedowns in her last six fights since the start of 2019, landing 19 of those (37%) while Weili is 13-of-38 in her UFC career (eight fights, 34%). Weili landed five and then three takedowns in her two most-recent fights compared to Esparza's five, three, and two in hers.
This is a close one and the only woman to ever defeat Weili in the UFC goes by the name of Rose. Esparza has historically been a much more average fighter than the opponents Weili has dealt with, so I'm betting on the latter regaining the title this weekend and putting on the higher DKFP performance.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin Poirier, $8900 - vs. Michael Chandler
If something links Poirier and Chandler, that's a very particular stain in their collective resumes: defeats to now-former (after he dropped the title on Oct. 22) champion Charles Oliveira in the 2021 calendar year. Poirier lost his most recent fight against Oliveira with that happening last December while Chandler did so seven months after that in May 2021.
Chandler has sandwiched two losses with two KO victories in his short four-fight UFC tenure, spanning from Jan. 2021 to last May. He's coming off a KO victory in just 5:17 over former-great Tony Ferguson. Chandler had his chance at lifting the belt in just his second UFC fight but Oliveira stopped him short knocking him out 19 seconds into the second round of their matchup.
Poirier is entering the Octagon for the 27th time this Saturday trying to bounce back from the submission loss to Oliveira last December and after spending nearly one year out of the circuit. Before that, though, Poirier defeated Conor McGregor in back-to-back affairs (two KOs) and Dan Hooker before that on an extraordinarily fought decision.
It's hard to predict how this fight will end judging by these two most recent fights as they have both dropped one to Oliveira while defeating Hooker. Gaethje defeated Chandler but surrendered to Poirier, but that win by Dustin happened in early 2018. Anyway, looking at the numbers, these two can land the odd takedown but predicate their games in striking.
Considering this will either go the distance or end in a knockout both will have chances to get that W as they have KO'd opponents recently and also won decisions. The per-minute SSA averages can't be closer at around 10 for each man, and the actual landed blows are virtually similar with 6.1 and 6.2 SSL/min for them.
Poirier has reached higher ceilings and both have similar floors, so it has to be the experienced Dustin here for me on top of Mike C.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Gutierrez, $9100 - vs. Frankie Edgar
Edgar is nearly Gutierrez's 10-year senior. Edgar is entering the Octagon for the 26th time in his UFC tenure compared to Gutierrez's eighth appearance. Edgar is 24-10-1 while Gutierrez is 18-4-2 in MMA fights and a near-perfect 6-0-1 in the UFC. Advantage who, then?
Edgar has been more cooked than not of late having won just one fight in the past four calendar years (including 2022) and only two since the start of 2018 (2-4 since then). Gutierrez, on the other hand, kicked his UFC career off with three victories followed by a draw and three more Ws leading up to this weekend's matchup.
Now, there is a very easy-to-spot difference between Edgar's row of opponents and Gutierrez's. Chris has faced only two 85th-pctl fighters in his seven times out there compared to Edgar fighting almost exclusively against that top-level type of competition (with the exception of 76th-pctl Pedro Munhoz). Of course, Edgar lost more of those fights than he won, but that's to be expected and reasonable.
Edgar is still doing it on both volume-striking and grappling, landing at least two TDs in each of his last two fights while also going for 11+ SSA/min in those two outings. Gutierrez has been much more active when it comes to total fights (all seven from March 2019 on) but his numbers have not been that gaudy: 0.4 TD per fight and around 8 SSA/min career-wise.
In any case, it feels like a stretch to see Edgar recovering from his bad recent run even though he defeated Munhoz in his second-to-last matchup. I'm siding with Gutierrez this weekend as he has a more interesting profile for DKFP purposes and fantasy contests.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dan Hooker, $8700 - vs. Claudio Puelles
Puelles debuted in the UFC as far back as 2016. That sounds ridiculous, but that's true and he did so while getting KO'd by Martin Brave in under seven minutes of fighting time. After a year and a half out of the Octogan, Puelles returned, submitted his foe, and has not met defeat ever since going on a 5-0 winning streak (three subs, two decisions).
Hooker is the clear veteran and more experienced fighter here. He'll have done it 20 times when he goes to sleep on Saturday. He's been around since June 2014. But he has gone 1-4 in the past 30 months while getting finished three times in those four losses: two KOs, one sub.
Hooker's only victory came against Nasrat Haqparast slightly over a year ago, via decision. He topped at just 81.5 DKFP that day putting up a 73-of-153 SSL and going 3-of-7 on the TD count. As is often the case with veterans trying to rebuild their appeal, Hooker has been faced hella strong competitors of late, thus the massively negative record he's accrued recently.
That clearly contrasts with Puelles' approach to the game. Puelles has faced six different men in the UFC yet none of them ranked inside the top-65th-pctl in DKFP per fight. That, simply put, is stinking opposition. Thus the crazy numbers by Puelles.
Puelles is 12-of-31 on takedowns having landed at least one in all of his fights except the last one--in which he submitted Clay Guida in just 3:01 landing all of one SS. He's connected 62% of his SSA in the past four fights combined. Is that sustainable, even more considering Hooker is an 84th-pctl fighter with much more experience than Puelles?
All things considered, though, and even though Hooker has looked horrible of late, his lone W in the last couple of years yielded 81.5 DKFP. Puelles finished his best decision win at 83.7. It's a tough call, but I'd go with the veteran Hooker here.
