Daily Dive: Should We Be Concerned About Yoan Moncada?

Mike Kurland dives into the batting profile of Chicago White Sox Yoan Moncada to project his fantasy baseball value going forward in the 2021 MLB season.

The idea of this article is to discuss, in depth, a specific player’s current profile and production. We will dive into why he is succeeding or struggling and discuss if there are reasons for concern or brighter days ahead.

The intention here is to figure out what is going on and if there is a way to fix it or if we should ring the alarm bells in fantasy leagues. We are taking a quick look under the hood.  

Next up is Chicago White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada.

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Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox

Yoan Moncada has not lived up to expectations so far this season. With just three home runs and no stolen bases, he has been frustrating to have on your team. This comes with a 29.1% strikeout rate while hitting .254/.358/.377. He’s sporting a decent .331 wOBA and a wRC+ of 116 so he has been above league average overall but it sure doesn’t feel like it. With a .358 OBP and an 11.9% walk rate, he is a big gainer in OBP formats. This batting average is with a .356 BABIP, which given his skill set he can sustain close to that. However, it leaves no room for error and his batting average won’t move upward and if the BABIP does take a small hit the batting average will fall with it.

Something that has and can continue to aid the batting average is the line drive rate. At 27.6% it’s the highest output since 2016. This comes with pulling less and putting the ball up the middle more. This could be helping BABIP play up. However, the fly ball rate is down to 28.9%. Less pull rate and fewer fly balls when paired together explain in part why power has not shown up yet. Line drives to all fields are good for BABIP and batting average more than the power. But the power will improve in general as the weather warms up. Surprisingly the HR/FB rate is up from last season (13.6%) but is still down from 20.2% in 2019. That juiced ball likely helped and with the current ball, the fact the HR/FB rate is up while hitting more line drives and pulling less means we could see an uptick in power if that stuff returns to the norm.

The plate approach continues to be a very patient one. When you see a near 30% strikeout rate, you don’t (or wouldn’t) equate that to a good plate approach. However, he has a very patient approach and has far better than the league average O-Swing rate as well as a near league average swinging strike rate. So the issue would be in the contact rates as Moncada has below average contact rates in and out of the zone. Although the swinging strike rate is roughly league average, it is bad to be league average when you swing less than league average. This is where the strikeouts come from. This comes with a second straight season of a decrease in 1st Pitch Swing rate but that could be due to the second straight decline in zone rate. Pitchers might not be attacking the zone early in the count or get ahead early and then pitch around him. Either way, being less aggressive is having an impact on his number. All of this production to this point is also similar to his 2020 numbers.

Moncada’s statcast numbers suggest the batting average is about where it should be but that he has been a little unlucky with an xSLG 55 points higher than his actual slugging rate and the xwOBA 17 points higher. Outside of the power production, the rest seems to be in line with expectations.

The quality of contact has improved and although he is hitting fewer fly balls, maybe it is assisting with the quality of contact. Moncada has the lowest average launch angle of his career at 9.4 degrees. This could help explain the dip in fly-ball rate and the increase in line drives. He has gained 3 points in the barrel rate bringing it up to 9.2 percent. He usually sat around this mark in 2017 and 2018. The Sweet Spot rate is the second-highest of his career at 39.5%. So although he doesn’t make enough contact, he makes it count when he does hit the ball though. If he can raise the launch angle back up to his usual double-digit rate, it will likely increase the fly balls. We just need to hope he sustains the quality of contact as well and we can see a nice power surge.

The 2019 production was always said to be his ceiling but buying into him being close to that player is what you had to do if you were targeting Moncada this draft season. He’s been better so far than in 2020 but instead of even meeting in the middle, he’s leaning closer to the 2020 version than the 2019 version so far. If the steals don’t pick up, he will be a bust. When you targeted him, you knew the mid 20’s or so home runs were likely but if he’s closer to a .250 to .260 hitter then he needs close to 10 stolen bases, and without those, he won’t come close to being worth his draft-day cost. I do believe there is more power production coming for Moncada but without even an attempt for a stolen base since 2019, I am afraid the stolen bases will not come.

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