RADIO
It's one of the roughest Tuesday mornings of the year. Time to shake off the cobwebs and dive into fantasy, because there's no way anyone can immediately dive back into work. Might as well alleviate the pain of summer's end with a fatter wallet, am I right?
Tonight we've got a full slate of baseball games with every game taking place under the lights, creating a loaded Main slate. Speaking of loaded - that's exactly what these rosters are with the September call-ups, so any morning set up of your lineups has to be ditched as we're seeing regulars getting rested. On the flip side of that, the pennant races are heating up, and as such, it's not a bad idea to focus your lineup core around guys that have something more to play for.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/5/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Let's get to it, shall we?
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Vegas Odds
Before we dive into player picks and analysis, let's see what Vegas lines could be of interest to us. The teams with the most attractive run totals are as follows: Rockies (6.9), Indians (6), Red Sox (5.6), Astros (5.3), Royals (5.3), and Brewers (5.1) followed by a handful of teams in the 4.8 - 5.1 range, which will be interesting to see which ways those totals move as we get closer to first pitch and have some lineups to analyze. As for the heaviest moneyline favorites - helpful in selecting Cash game pitchers - it starts with Indians (-259), Mets (-190), Cubs (-190), Red Sox (-184) and the Nationals (-181).
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider
Jacob deGrom - SP, PHI vs NYM (DK - $12,600, FD - $10,100)
We all know what type of brilliance deGrom usually displays at home in Citi Field, and he'll have a chance to continue his dominance against a familiar foe in the Phillies. He's faced this Philadelphia team three times this season and in 20 innings pitched, he's struck out 24 and put up 54 Fanduel points in their most recent face-off. For the season, he's posted a strong WHIP of 1.1 and the strikeout prowess is there, as his K/9 is currently at 10.5. To make this matchup more enticing, the Phillies projected lineup owns a 27% K rate against right-handed pitching. On top of all that, his StatCast data from his last tow starts is extremely favorable, as he's allowed just a 25% hard hit rate and a 28% fly ball rate.
Danny Salazar - SP, CLE @ CWS (DK - $9,700, FD - $9,400)
If you need a pivot off of deGrom (who will likely be the most popular pitcher tonight) and would like to save some money in doing so without sacrificing strikeout upside, look to Danny Salazar. He's faced off against a similar White Sox team a few times this year and although there are a few blemishes, the strikeouts have always been plentiful and this is now a softer lineup than it was earlier in the year. In 2017, he's posted a magnificent 12.4 K/9 to go with a 1.4 WHIP that leaves a little to be desired (but often comes with the high strikeout territory). He should be backed with run support as the Indians are red-hot and are currently the biggest moneyline favorites on the board at -259. Even as they are big favorites, I do prefer Salazar in tournaments only as he is returning from injury and the leash may be short.
Also Consider: Justin Verlander - SP, HOU @ SEA (DK - $11,500, FD - $8,600)
DFS Infielders to Consider
Yadier Molina - C, STL @ SDP (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,100)
Yadier has been absolutely thumping the ball of late. I had as much trouble typing that sentence as you had believing it, but the Statcast data is extremely favorable and he is showcasing really strong splits against southpaws. In the last 12 games, Molina has posted a 44% hard hit rate and an average batted ball distance of 225 feet. Dating back to the start of the year he's holding a .398 wOBA and .281 ISO splits.
Tyler White - 1B, HOU @ SEA (DK - $3,300, FD - $2,400)
If you're willing to sacrifice a safe floor in exchange for major cash savings in a player with raw power and upside, White is your man tonight. In the short time we've been blessed with his presence at the MLB level, as he's done is mash - 66% hard hit rate and a monstrous ISO. What makes this spot so attractive is not just the savings - it's also due to the fact that opposing pitcher Ariel Miranda has been an absolute gas can and over his last three starts, his wOBA and ISO allowed are over .400 and .300, respectively.
Neil Walker - 2B, MIL @ CIN (DK - $4,100, FD - $2,900)
This is quite a bargain price for a hitter that is typically streaky and happens to be hot right now. For the year, he has showcased above-average splits against right-handed pitching with his .366 wOBA and strong .206 ISO. What gives him the edge over the other second baseman on the board, though, is the stadium upgrade and the fact that his Statcast data tells us he's squaring up the ball well and getting it in the air (44% fly ball rate in past two weeks).
Nolan Arenado - 3B, SFG vs COL (DK - $5,200, FD - $4,300)
Considering the matchup - the venue, Blach's recent struggles and Nolan's prowess for destroying southpaws - I think this is a bargain price for Arenado's services this evening. His splits are outstanding and put him in a class of his own - .471 wOBA, .362 ISO - and the hard hit data (35% over past two weeks) tells me he's pretty locked in, too.
Trevor Story - SS, SFG vs COL (DK - $3,800, FD - $3,600)
There's no reason not to keep picking on Blach and his tired arm in this wondrous hitting environment, especially with the projected team total for Colorado nearing seven runs. Story has been crushing the ball of late and he's got a figure above 50% that I look for always - fly ball rate. In the past two weeks, his hard hit rate is 46% and his average batted ball distance is 249 feet. On top of that, he's a known southpaw smasher, posting a .404 wOBA and .333 ISO splits this year.
DFS Outfielders to Consider
Harrison Bader - OF, STL @ SDP (DK - $2,900, FD - $2,000)
This is an ideal price point for an outfielder today that gives cash savings and a really strong matchup. We only have a few games of Bader at the MLB level to analyze, but what he's done in that short time is impressive and the matchup against a struggling lefty tonight bodes well for him. In the past week, both his hard hit rate and fly ball rate are sitting at 50%.
J.D. Martinez - OF, ARI @ LAD (DK - $4,600, FD - $4,000)
What a night it was for Martinez, smashing four home runs off four different pitchers. The man is totally locked in right now and while he likely won't see as many pitches to hit, he is facing a lefty again (.493 wOBA and .424 ISO) so it would be a little silly not to use him in tournaments seeing as he's hitting a home run every nine at-bats whilst in an Arizona uniform.
Also Consider: Ryan Braun - OF, MIL @ CIN (DK - $4,100, FD - $2,900)
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