Daily Dive: What's Wrong with Francisco Lindor?

May 8, 2021

Mike Kurland dives into the batting profile of Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets to project his fantasy baseball value going forward in the 2021 MLB season.

The idea of this article is to discuss in depth a specific player’s current profile and production. We will dive into why he is succeeding or struggling and discuss if there are reasons for concern or brighter days ahead.

The intention here is to figure out what is going on and if there is a way to fix it or if we should ring the alarm bells in fantasy leagues.

Next up is New York Mets infielder Francisco Lindor. Please note, all rostered rates are based on Yahoo! formats. 

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Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets

Is it time to panic about Francisco Lindor?

Well, the simple and short answer to that is no. However, that defeats the purpose of this article so let’s dive into the production and I will explain why I am not so concerned about the young star. 

Francisco Lindor has not started off his tenure as a Met on the right foot. With just one home run, no stolen bases and hitting .163/.297/.207 with a .242 wOBA and a wRC+ of 57. There are definitely better days ahead for Lindor. Looking at the plate discipline he is striking out just 13.4% of the time. This is better than his typically elite 14.1% rate he has posted over his career to this point. The big change is the notably high 14.3% walk rate. Not only is this a career-high mark, but this is also the first time it has ever been in the double digits. He is literally walking more than he is striking out which is amazing and a reminder how elite the plate discipline and eye is for Lindor. 

Lindor is currently sporting a lowly .182 BABIP. This is 98 points lower than his 2020 BABIP and 113 point lower than his career .295 BABIP. Also a .043 ISO should not stick. Lindor has a career .198 ISO and prior to 2020 it was over .230 for three-straight seasons. Even if he does not hit 30 home runs, he should still be in-line for more power moving forward. 

The statcast data suggests he has also been a bit unlucky with his power output and production in general.

The advance metrics suggest he should be performing better all around and part of the issue has been bad luck. However, that is not the only issue. Lindor has the lowest barrel rate (3.8%) since 2015 and this currently makes it three-straight seasons of decline for the barrel rate. There is also a 9.9 point decrease in Sweet Spot rate (26.6%) from 2020. The quality of contact has taken a big hit and with it the numbers have also fallen. This has likely played into the fall in his hard hit rate which is just 40.5%. This is the lowest it has been since 2017.

I would bet on track record here and say the Sweet Spot and barrel rates will at least bounce back to his career-average marks. The hard hit rate is mostly in-line with his output over the last four seasons and if the quality of contact bounces back, we will see the hard hit rate likely improve.

Some of the bigger changes early on in the profile is the plate approach. We discussed his walk rate has spiked and it is by far a career-high mark and there is a reason for it. He is being far more passive. Lindor has a Swing% of 42.8% and a 1st Pitch Swing% of 25%. The swing rate is the lowest of his career while the 1st Pitch Swing rate is the lowest since 2018. Pitchers are taking note and the Zone% is up 1.3 points to 46.2% as pitchers are attacking the zone a bit more often. Now due to this more passive approach it has led to more called strikes. His called strike rate is at 16.7% and that is the highest of his career and it makes sense that it is creeping upward as he takes more pitches. Not to mention, Lindor's numbers when behind in the count are not great.

However, it isn’t all bad news. 

The chase rate is a career-low to this point at just 24.3% and the Z-Swing% followed suit dropping 7.9 points to a career-low 64.4%. This could be an issue for some players, but Lindor has swung less in general while making more contact on pitches outside the zone than ever before (chase contact% of 72.4%) while having improved his Z-Contact% almost two full points from 2020 as it is at 90.8%. This has also come with a dip in an already great SwStr rate. It is at just 7.7%. So what is essentially happening right now is Lindor is swinging less but making more contact and having less swing-and-miss to his game. It is just unfortunate the contact he is making is not hard contact or quality contact. 

But now there is more bad news.

Another issue is Francisco Lindor is he is hitting too many ground balls. At 51.3%, it is not only the worst of his career so far, but it is the first time it has been even above 45% since 2016 and just the second time over 40% since 2017. This is due to regress to the norm. Although it can be at least in part, explained by the dip in average launch angle. It is sitting at just 9.5 degrees and this is the first time it has been single digits since the 2016 season. The ground balls have come strictly at the expense of the line drive rate. It is down to just 12.8% and the lowest rate Lindor has ever posted prior is 18.3%. 

One has to wonder if Lindor is also being too passive in his approach when it comes to the lack of pulling the ball. He has a career 40.3% pull rate and it has been 44.6% and 44.7% each of the last two seasons and it currently sits at just 32.9%. This could be part of taking what the pitchers are giving him. Lindor may want to reconsider being so passive as giving up the pull-heavy approach that has also played into the decline in power early on most likely.

An all-fields approach would typically help a batting average play up but not when it comes with a huge increase in ground balls and a decrease in line drives. His Oppo% is at 35.4% right now. It has never been above 30% before and the last time it was even over 26% was in 2015. 

There are also the external factors playing a part. New team, mega-contract, moving to the National League where he is seeing completely new pitchers regularly, an unforgiving fan base and the overall Big Apple spotlight. I don’t think the elite 27 year old talent suddenly forgot how to be the player that has made him this successful. Between the likely adjustments he will make and some of the bad luck he has endured, there are better days ahead for Lindor. 

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