January 20, 2018

After a perfect 4-0 week against the spread, football expert Seth I. Finkelstein looks to continue his hot streak with his picks for Championship Sunday.

Championship Sunday has arrived and boy did it take some dumb stupid coaching decisions to get here. I've been saying all year the Falcons inability to score in the red zone will cost them eventually. Last week I said, "if the Falcons don't begin scoring touchdowns [in the red zone], it will come back to haunt them." I even wrote about this issue in Week 9. They started off the game with settling for a field goal in the red zone and ended the game failing to score a touchdown. The play calling was absolutely horrific and as soon as Matt Ryan rolled out and cut off half the field, you knew it was over.

The Steelers should be ashamed of their play calling, to pitch the ball out wide on 4th-and-1 in the first quarter and then throw the ball on 4th-and-1 later in the game. But they should NOT fire Mike Tomlin. 

Last week I went 4-0 against the spread elevating my record to 5-3 this postseason.

PATRIOTS -7.5 vs. Jaguars

Sunday 3:05 on CBS

Whoa, money is coming in on the Jaguars. On Tuesday, the Pats were nine-point favorites and on Wednesday it was eight. This is going down because of Tom Brady's nonsense injury. The Patriots are being hush-hush as usual, but don't worry. He'll be fine and shred the Jaguars defense just like Big Ben did last week. I have said the Jaguars are one of the best defenses in football, but this is Tom Brady. And for all you rooting for the Jags, you shouldn't. I'm a Jets fan and want the Pats to make it to the Super Bowl. You must be screaming 'WHYYYY?' That's because the Pats have been in seven Super Bowls since 2001. And. Every. Singe. One has been better than the one before. In 2001, the Pats were 14-point underdogs to the Greatest Show on Turf and upset them. Two years later they defeated the Panthers on a last-second field goal. The one a year later against the Eagles was solid. But the two losses against the Giants, Seattle, and Atlanta one last year were among the greatest football games ever. If they get in the game will be an instant classic. They're not rolling over the Vikings defense in their home building or the Eagles defense. I'm a huge football fan and want the best product possible in the championship.

This will be an NFL record seventh consecutive AFC Championship for the Pats and 12th in Tom Brady's career. In those games, they are 7-4 straight up, and 5-6 against the spread. The point spread is the second-highest the Pats have been favorite by (the highest was in 2007, 14 over the Chargers. They did not cover).  The Jaguars were established in 1995 and made two AFC Championships, 1996 and 1999. They lost both.

The Jaguars had their best offensive day of the season last week matching their highest scoring output, 45 points. However, their defense gave up its second-most points this season, 42, and most pass yards to the Steelers, 462. The second most this season was 301, also to the Steelers, and third most to Seattle, 260. Tom Brady will slice them up down the middle. As Matthew Freedman of the Action Network notes, "While the Jags defense is strong outside the numbers thanks to Pro-Bowl cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, they are more vulnerable in the middle of the field, ranking 11th, 15th, and 20th in pass DVOA against supplementary (slot) receivers, running backs, and tight ends." Hello, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, and Rob Gronkowski. I heard a wild stat the other day, and of course I can't remember where it was from, when Brady and Gronk take the field together, they win at an 80% clip. This may be the healthiest Gronk has been in a while.

I'm not going to look at any more stats because this is a common sense game. The Jaguars peaked last week. Remember, this is still Blake Bortles playing in Foxborough in the AFC Championship. This is a whole another animal than Pittsburgh. I understand the most hottest take this week on all sports talk is Tom Coughlin is the only one to have beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl since 2001. Firstly, he's not the head coach, and secondly, he'd doesn't have Eli Manning to make the huge throw when must needed. This feels like a vintage Bortles game, and revert to his old name Blake "Pick-six Bortles." The Jags were a feel good story, but it has to come to an end.

Prediction: Patriots 31 - Jaguars 14

EAGLES +3 vs. Vikings

Sunday 6:40 p.m.on FOX

The battle of two tortured fanbases. Both teams have never won a Super Bowl, and are historic dating back pre-merger in 1970. The Vikings won the NFL championship in 1969, the Eagles three, 1948, 1949, and 1960. The last of which was against Vince Lombardi, "the only postseason loss on the great coach."

The Vikings are 0-4 in Super Bowls, their last appearance in 1976. The Vikings have had three chances since then, but lost in 1998 after Gary Anderson missed a kick to ice the game, shut out to the Giants as one-point favorites in the Meadowlands, and Brett Favre's heartbreaking interception in 2009. This is also the team that lost on a Roger Staubach Hail Mary in the 1975 Divisional Round.

The Eagles are 0-2 in Super Bowls, their last appearance in 2004. They did not make an NFC Championship game appearance from 1980 to 2001, under Andy Reid. Him and Donovan McNabb led them to five NFC Championship games, four of which were consecutive, the last of which in 2009.

This is the game I'm most excited for. This has all the makings of a vintage NFC Championship game from the 1980's. A cold weather, hard-hitting, defensive battle. I  don't think these quarterbacks will make many plays. Expect to see a lot of running and play-action.

These teams have very similar defensive numbers. The Vikings were first in points allowed, the Eagles fourth. Minnesota was 5th in takeaways, the Eagles, fourth. The Vikings had a significant better pass defense, second while the Eagles were 17th. Both rush defenses are the best two, the Eagles were first and Vikings second.

The Vikings and Eagles both are stacked with weapons from Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Jerrick McKinnon, Latavius Murray, and Kyle Rudolph for Minnesota. Philly has Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agoholor, Zach Ertz, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement. The stat that will decide this game is the pass defense. The rush defenses won't budge, but the Vikings have the advantage at quarterback. I've been a fan of Nick Foles and have stood by him since he came in and he looked good last week. But this isn't the Falcons defense, the Vikings defense is loaded and mean. Case Keenum has looked great all year and will make several more clutch plays than Foles to lead them back to Minneapolis to host the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Vikings 20 - Eagles 16

This will not be my last football article of the year. The week leading up to the Super Bowl I will be posting a Super Bowl prop extravaganza article with my pick. Stay tuned for that.

Best of luck RotoBallers!