Buyer Beware? Hot Starts and Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis (Week 19)

July 27, 2024

Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 19 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?

The trade deadline for Major League Baseball (and many for fantasy baseball) is less than a week away. With that deadline will surely come new roles, increased playing time, and another wave of prospects called up to fill in for teams looking to complete their rosters in the last two months of the season. This is a tricky time because roles on teams might not be the same if a player is traded. Context matters when considering the hot waiver-wire adds of the week.

Players like Jeff McNeil, Colton Cowser, and Juan Yepez are exceptionally hot right now, but will it last? These are some of the hottest pickups of the week. Just because these players are at the head of the class for this week's waiver wire doesn't mean the production will continue through August and September. Diving deep into their performances should tell a better story. That's the goal of this piece today.

Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend and deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.

Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF - New York Mets

Since the All-Star Break ended, Jeff McNeil has been hitting like he is channeling peak Ted Williams or something. He has a .417 batting average with a 1.000 slugging percentage since July 19. He has 10 hits in his last seven games and has not hit five home runs in July. The power this month has come out of nowhere and is something that can't be counted on for the rest of the season.

McNeil has five home runs in July already. Those five home runs are the most he has produced in a calendar month since September 2019 in his fluky 23-home-run season. He's up to nine home runs on the year, which is already higher than four years in his career. The primary reason for the surge appears to be an extraordinary effort to pull the ball to the right side in his plate appearances. He is pulling the ball 52.8% this month after never topping more than 40% any other month this season.

Whenever a power-generating number looks like that much of an outlier, it should give us tremendous pause. Is McNeil a skilled and patient contact hitter? Yes. Is he a 30-home-run guy who will get five to six bombs every month? Absolutely not. Only 2019 with the juiced-ball year has shown anything even close to that in his career. Taking into account his career's 2.9% barrel rate, it's not likely we see this kind of power continue for long.

Victor Robles, OF - Seattle Mariners

In the Seattle Mariners' 10-0 rout of the Chicago White Sox on Friday night, Victor Robles capped off a streak of three home runs from three straight batters for Seattle. It caps off an incredible 28 games since coming to Seattle where Robles has hit .365/.441/.519 with two home runs and eight stolen bases. Has Robles rediscovered what was once thought to be one of the best potentials for power and speed among all prospects? I'm here to say, not so fast my friend.

Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore and Victor Robles go back-to-back-to-back.

The Mariners are absolutely pouring it on in the 1st inning here in Chicago. pic.twitter.com/wJCta6U6TH

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) July 27, 2024

Robles wore out his welcome in Washington, as it shipped him to Seattle to make room for other young players on the roster. So far, so good in Seattle, but there are myriad factors that fantasy managers can point to and say the best days might already be behind him. The first is just the simple matter of playing time. Yes, Julio Rodriguez is hurt right now, but it's not considered a long-term injury. The team just traded for Randy Arozarena, who will immediately fill an outfield spot as well. Someone between Mitch Haniger, Victor Robles, and Luke Raley is going to be sitting regularly as there are now three names battling for one outfield slot.

In addition to the playing-time conundrum, just look at Robles' luck this year. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is 60 points higher than his career number (.362 compared to .304). He is also struggling to make any kind of contact outside of the zone when he does swing (25% of the time he does swing). Robles' outside zone contact rate is 18 percentage points lower than last season, which is bordering now on unacceptable levels (just 47.5%). I think Robles can be consistent with the bat given enough playing time, but I'm afraid that playing time might be more sporadic in the days and weeks ahead.

Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS - Miami Marlins

Middle infielder Xavier Edwards has been a revelation for the lowly Miami Marlins in his 22 games this season. He is hitting .368/.444/.421 and looks like a rich man's Luis Arraez with his ability to make contact and draw a plethora of walks (13.3% walk rate). He may have zero power (literally zero home runs), but his bat, speed (five steals), and defense are part of the reason why the Marlins are looking into trading players like Jazz Chisholm at the trade deadline and building around younger guys.

However, Edwards is long overdue for a major step back and it could begin as soon as this weekend. Edwards' batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a robust .438. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would be 60 points higher than league leader Bobby Witt Jr. Despite hitting 50% of his batted balls on the ground this year, he still is hitting .368, relying on mostly his speed to beat out that many balls hit into the infield.

Xavier Edwards has been absolutely incredible this month 🤩 pic.twitter.com/FBFhN0xHi8

— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) July 27, 2024

Edwards' barrel rate is just over 3% this season, so there is no power behind the contact he is making. The average and the five steals he has produced for fantasy baseball are wonderful bonuses, but once the average starts to fade, the stolen bases will as well. His expected statistics from Statcast seal his fate. Instead of a .369 average with a .421 slugging percentage, those numbers should really be a .281 average and .364 slugging percentage.

Robbie Ray, SP - San Francisco Giants

In his 2024 debut after missing 18 months with Tommy John surgery, Robbie Ray threw five hitless innings against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. He struck out eight batters and his fastball velocity sat at 95 miles an hour while his slider was just under 90 miles per hour. What's not to like? Well, we did see some of the old, frustrating Robbie Ray emerge in this first start. It took him 34 pitches to get out of the first inning where he allowed a run despite not allowing any hits. He did walk two batters in the game, which also can't help us wonder if the control issues are still a mixed bag.

Five no-hit innings for Robbie Ray in his @SFGiants debut! pic.twitter.com/yOCMsaxnVU

— MLB (@MLB) July 25, 2024

It's no question Ray has always been a dominant strikeout pitcher. For his career, he averages over 11 strikeouts per nine innings and has had three campaigns where it was more than 12 per nine innings. However, it's always been the command and the control with Ray. During his Cy Young season in 2021, he cut his walks per nine innings to just 2.42, and fantasy managers rejoiced because we believed his worst area of performance was fixed. That quickly jumped back up to three walks per nine in 2022 and he also has four seasons with at least four walks per nine.

This was just a first start back from Tommy John, so we shouldn't take anything we saw as gospel. Whether it's eight strikeouts, no hits, two walks, or shaky command, all of it is extremely small sample. But for me, what isn't small sample is his career 3.8 walks per nine innings over 1,233 career innings pitched. In the most realistic world, Ray is a pitcher who possesses a 4.00 ERA and strikes out 10 batters per nine innings but can't ever go too deep into games because of the walks. Bid appropriately on those facts and not just what he showed in his season debut.

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