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Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 9. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.
We are nearly a third of the way through the fantasy season and things are starting to figure themselves out. For example, Kris Bryant has seemingly found his stroke and shut the window closed on buy-low opportunities. Several other players around the league are also beginning to find their groove, yet there are still a few inefficiencies out there to take advantage of.
Lucas Giolito is an interesting case to feature in the piece this week. I'm sure it is no secret how dominant his most recent start against the Astros was (9IP, 5 baserunners, 9K, CGSO) but for some reason, he is still available in certain leagues. It is weird when a player goes from overvalued (specifically Gio, the former top pitching prospect) to undervalued in a matter of a season. Sometimes it takes a mechanical tweak, getting healthy, or even dash of good fortune. Whatever the change may be for Giolito, it is working. His 2.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are eye candy for owners. He probably won't keep THIS up, but should be plenty good throughout the year.
Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.
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Undervalued Players - Week 9
These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.
Lucas Giolito - SP, CHW
66% owned
This is pretty obvious after his shut out of the HOUSTON ASTROS on Thursday. I would not be placing Giolito in this piece if not for his 66 percent ownership. The guy is a must-own starter in all leagues. He is breaking out to an extent. Although he may not be the ace that was promised, he is pitching at a very high level and worthy of fantasy ownership.
Giolito's xFIP and SIERA are under four, his strikeout rate is nearly 30 percent and his walk rate is down from last year. The velocity is up on his fastball and he is killing with his changeup. Giolito should not be available on your waiver wire. If he is, BUY. Spend an exorbitant amount of FAAB if you have to. If an owner in your league thinks this is a fluke, go pull the rug from under him. This is legit.
Jurickson Profar - 1B/2B/3B/SS, OAK
50% owned
Profar has been bad. Better of late, but still bad. I do not love the idea of having him on any of my rosters, but for someone in a deeper league where he's available on the wire or via trade, he's worth taking a flier on. Profar's transition from Texas to Oakland has been very ugly. The change in home park has clearly affected his performance. Oakland Stadium is a black hole for most hitters, even former top prospects.
Profar's breakout season in 2018 had plenty of folks believing in him around the mid-rounds of preseason drafts, but now he's available in about half of Yahoo's leagues. Profar is not a must-own by any means but should be better than he has been. A sub-.200 BABIP is sinking his average and his power is coming according to Statcast. Nothing extraordinary should be expected from him ROS, but there will be a gradual improvement that adds value. The walks are down, however, so are his strikeouts. There is nothing too egregious in his profile making it seem like his early season is nothing more than a fluke.
Grab him if you need infield depth.
Ronald Acuna Jr. - OF, ATL
99% owned
"Hey Kev, how is a first rounder that has not exactly underperformed undervalued?" Well, as good as Acuna's been, he should be even better. The former top prospect has not disappointed but is not really setting the world on fire either...yet. His Statcast numbers suggest that both his batting and slugging averages could take a jump in the near future.
He has been relatively quiet since his mid-April heater. Three home runs in two games this past week should keep his value high, but it is likely that he could be available for the right price in your redraft leagues. Not only is his power around the corner, but so are his steals. Guy has hardly been unleashed on the base paths. There could be 20 left in the tank for this year. His success rate in the MLB thus far is high enough to keep the green light on when he has the chance.
I would be aggressively targeting RAJ in every league I could to pry him away and reap the benefits of his potential ROS spoils.
Overvalued Players - Week 9
Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag.
Eduardo Escobar - (3B, ARI)
77% owned
Escobar has been scorching hot over the past month-ish. Since April 20th, he has hit 11 of his 12 home runs on the season. Call me a pessimist, but this pace is not going to keep up throughout the year. Escobar's career high in home runs (23) came in his first full season last year. While he should definitely crack that mark regardless of how much he slows down, the average, along with his counting stats should take a hit as the year rolls on. Arizona's offense is not the most potent and just lost David Peralta for the immediate future.
Escobar's lack of steals and reliance on home runs make him a risky hold going forward. If anyone in your league needs middle infield depth, throw Esco's name out and see if they bite on the hot streak. Obviously, don't drop him straight to the wire if he sticks around, but don't expect much more than what we have already seen.
Gleyber Torres - (2B/SS, NYY)
98% owned
Unless the Yankees plan on playing Baltimore for every other series this season, I would advise getting off the Gleyber train soon. He has been SCORCHING against the Orioles and pretty mediocre against the rest of the field (10 of Torres' 12 home runs have come against the Orioles).
If he stole bases consistently, maybe I'd reconsider this decision, but that just is not the case. Torres is a valuable player in a potentially even more loaded lineup but lacks the overall fantasy appeal for now (at the very least he is not hitting ninth anymore). The upside is still plentiful, we just have to see him unlock it against better competition before making any hasty decisions.
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