RADIO
Michael Florio takes a close look at batters who improved at three key Statcast metrics in 2019, helping spur them on to strong seasons. These hitters utilized increased launch angle, exit velocity and barrel percentage to up their fantasy intrigue heading into 2020.
It was just a few seasons ago that you started to hear the words, "launch angle," "exit velocity," and "barrels" begin to be thrown around in the fantasy baseball community. You may have seen it on Twitter, in an article, or heard about it on your favorite fantasy baseball podcast, but it was seldomly quantified. Fast forward just a few short years and Statcast stats are now all the rage in the fantasy baseball industry.
Now you will routinely hear about a player’s launch angle, or his barrels per plate appearance, or his exit velocity. One thing you do not hear that often is players who have improved in those stats. I am looking to provide that missing information. I took Statcast data from 2016 through '18 and then compared players' '19 season to their three-year averages. The goal is to find players that made improvements in some key stats: launch angle, average exit velocity and Brls/Plate appearance.
First, let me take a quick second to explain each of those stats.
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Statcast Refresher
Launch angle is the angle at which the ball leaves the bat. For reference, Baseball Savant indicates that balls with a launch angle of 10-25 degrees are line drives and 25 to 50 degrees are fly balls. Anything less is considered a ground ball, and anything more is a pop out.
Exit velocity is the speed of the ball as it comes off the bat. The higher the number the better here.
A barrel is optimal contact, which is a ball struck with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph and a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees. These balls typically lead to a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Brls/PA just breaks down the percentage of plate appearances a batter barrels a ball. The more barrels the better, so the higher number the better. This is the most important stat of the three, but the others are useful as well.
Now, knowing what all these stats mean, you can see why they are so important in breaking down hitters and why you should want to target those hitters who are improving in these categories.
Ketel Marte - 2B/OF, Diamondbacks
Marte jumped off the page for this exercise. Prior to 2019, Marte was not much of a power hitter at all, and primarily hit the ball on the ground. Then, he exploded with 32 homers last season. That came because he had a 5.2 percent jump on Brls/PA in '19 from his '16-'18 norm. That jump, from 2 Brls/PA in '16-'18 to 7.2 in '19, was the largest jump in the Majors, as he posted the 56th-best mark overall. But the barrels are not the only thing to like about Marte.
The percentage of balls he has hit at least 95 mph has increased in every season since 2016, reaching 40 percent in '19. That is 9.6 percent better than his previous three-season norm. His average launch angle from '16-'18 was 6.03, but he nearly doubled that by posting an 11.5-degree launch angle in '19. And lastly, his average exit velocity increased from 86.2 in '16-'18 to 89.8 mph in '19.
The leaps he made across the board encourage me to trust him in '20, but the scary part is that he can continue to grow on those numbers. He was plenty productive for fantasy last year, and many would settle if he could match those numbers, but if he continues to make gains in these important statistics, there is still the possibility that he can get even better.
Jorge Soler - OF, Royals
Soler had failed to live up the hype for years, but that changed in 2019 when he hit 48 homers with 117 RBI and 95 runs scored. He did so while improving his Statcast measurables across the board. His Brl/PA percent jumped to 10.3 after having an average of 5.4 in the three prior seasons. That 4.9 percent increase was the second largest in baseball.
Soler also improved his average exit velocity by 3.2 mph, from 89.4 in 2016-'18 to 92.6 in '19. Soler looked poised to break out in '18, when 41.3 percent of the balls he put in play were over 95 mph. But he built on that in '19, reaching 49.9 percent, the 10th-best mark in the Majors last season. His launch angle remained around 15 percent, on par with his three-year average.
Soler may struggle to build on 2019, or even replicate it, but he continuously hits the ball hard and in the air. His 10.3 Brls/PA percent in '19 was the seventh-best in the Majors, behind names such as Nelson Cruz, Gary Sanchez, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano. That is elite power company, and the best part is that owners do not need to pay that elite power bat price to land him in drafts.
C.J. Cron - 1B, Tigers
The sixth name ahead of Soler on that Brls/PA list list? Cron's, as he posted a 10.6 Brls/PA percentage in 2019. That was a 3.7 percent improvement from his previous three-season norm of 6.9 percent; an increase that marks the seventh-largest in baseball.
Cron also increased his average exit velocity by 2.2 mph, from 88.8 in '16-'18 to 91 mph in '19. He also started hitting the ball hard more often. The percent of balls that he hit 95+ MPH increased from 38 percent in the previous three seasons to 44.6 percent in '19. The only negative last season was his average launch angle fell to 12.7 degrees, a downturn from the 18 and 15.2 marks that he posted the last two seasons, respectively. If he can once again increase his launch angle, he will surpass his power numbers from '19 and perhaps even from '18, as well.
Josh Bell - 1B, Pirates
Bell was a tale of two halves last season, but all in all, 2019 was still his best season yet. On the year, Bell hit 37 homers (27 of them in the first half) in large part to increasing his Statcast numbers. Bell’s 13 degree average launch angle was not just a career best, but it was the first time he has reached double-digits. His average from '16-'18 was 8.2 degrees.
Bell also posted a career-high 92.3-mph average exit velocity, up from his previous three-year average of 88.6. His hard-hit rate jumped to 47.1 percent, after averaging 36.6 percent in the three seasons prior. His 8.6 Brls/PA percent was an increase of 4.1 percent from his three-year average of 4.5 percent.
Bell made improvements across the board, and much like Marte, there is still room to grow.
Cameron Maybin - OF, Tigers
Maybin is an afterthought in all but the deepest of drafts. But should he be? He made substantial improvements across the board in 2019.
When you think of Maybin, you think speed, not power, but his Brls/PA percent climbed by 3.9 percent last year (6.3) compared to the prior three seasons (2.4). He did so by more than doubling his average launch angle. Last year it was 11.1 degrees, while the three years prior, it was just 5.2.
Maybin also increased his average exit velocity after sitting between 86.4-86.8 mph in each of the three prior seasons. He got up to 88.8 mph in 2019. Last season, he hit a career-high 11 homers, which sounds like nothing, but it’s impressive when you consider he did so in just 269 plate appearances. He also stole nine bases. This season, he is expected to hit near the top of the order for the Tigers. He is definitely the sneakiest 20/20 candidate in the league.
Brls/PA % Climbers
Next to the player's name is the percent increase, compared to the three-year average. In parentheses will be the 2019 number and the '16-'18 average.
- Dansby Swanson, 3.6 percent (6.8 in 2019, 3.2 2016-2018 average)
- Christian Yelich, 3.5 (10.2 in 2019, 6.7 2016-2018 average)
- Miguel Sano, 3.4 (10.7 in 2019, 7.3 2016-2018 average)
- Eugenio Suarez, 3.3 (8.3 in 2019, 5.0 2016-2018 average)
- Carlos Correa, 3.3 (8.7 in 2019, 5.4 2016-2018 average)
- Byron Buxton, 3.3 (5.8 in 2019, 2.5 2016-2018 average)
- Rougned Odor, 3.2 (8.1 in 2019, 4.9 2016-2018 average)
- Ian Desmond, 3.2 (7.1 in 2019, 3.9 2016-2018 average)
- Anthony Rendon, 3.1 (8.7 in 2019, 5.6 2016-2018 average)
- George Springer, 3.1 (9.5 in 2019, 6.4 2016-2018 average)
Average Exit Velocity Climbers
Next to the player's name is the number of mph their average exit velocity increased in 2019 compared to the three-year average. In parentheses will be the '19 number and the '16-'18 average.
- Miguel Rojas, 4.4 MPH increase (87.1 in 2019, 82.7 2016-2018 average)
- Mallex Smith, 4.1 MPH increase (84.3 in 2019, 80.2 2016-2018 average)
- Byron Buxton, 3.8 MPH increase (89.3 in 2019, 85.5 2016-2018 average)
- Josh Bell, 3.7 MPH increase (92.3 in 2019, 88.6 2016-2018 average)
- Ketel Marte, 3.6 MPH increase (89.8 in 2019, 86.2 2016-2018 average)
- Javier Baez, 3.4 MPH increase (91 in 2019, 87.6 2016-2018 average)
- Marwin Gonzalez, 3.4 MPH increase (90.4 in 2019, 87.0 2016-2018 average)
- Jorge Soler, 3.2 MPH increase (92.6 in 2019, 89.4 2016-2018 average)
- Kevin Kiermaier, 3.0 MPH increase (88.9 in 2019, 85.9 2016-2018 average)
- Didi Gregorius, 2.9 MPH increase (88.2 in 2019, 85.3 2016-2018 average)
- Dee Gordon, 2.8 MPH increase (83.0 in 2019, 80.2 2016-2018 average)
- Miguel Sano, 2.8 MPH increase (94.4 in 2019, 91.6 2016-2018 average)
Launch Angle Climbers
Next to the player's name is the number their launch angle increased in 2019 compared to the three-year average. In parentheses will be the '19 number and the '16-'18 average.
- Travis Shaw, 8.6 degrees increase (24.4 in 2019, 15.8 2016-2018 average)
- Howie Kendrick, 7.6 degrees increase (11.0 in 2019, 3.4 2016-2018 average)
- Adam Eaton, 7.5 degrees increase (13.2 in 2019, 5.7 2016-2018 average)
- Gary Sanchez, 7.3 degrees increase (19.1 in 2019, 11.8 2016-2018 average)
- Christian Yelich, 7.2 degrees increase (11.2 in 2019, 4.0 2016-2018 average)
- Byron Buxton, 6.8 degrees increase (19.5 in 2019, 12.7 2016-2018 average)
- Mallex Smith, 6.4 degrees increase (7.2 in 2019, 0.8 2016-2018 average)
- Mitch Haniger, 6.2 degrees increase (18.7 in 2019, 12.5 2016-2018 average)
- Zack Cozart, 5.9 degrees increase (21.6 in 2019, 15.7 2016-2018 average)
If you have any questions on this information, or are wondering how other players fared, feel free to hit me up on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
