February 5, 2018

RB risers and fallers from the 2017 NFL season. Chris Mangano looks at the running backs whose fantasy football value increased or decreased most by ADP.

We've already looked at the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position. This time we examine the most volatile of positions, running back.

As is usually the case, the running back position produced plenty of surprises both good and bad. Rookies played a huge role in 2017, as expected, but a few NFL veterans surprised us as well.

As we gear up for the final game of the 2017 NFL season, Super Bowl LII, let's look at some of the biggest risers and fallers at the running back position in 2017 according to ADP.

Biggest Risers of 2017 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley (RB, LAR), ADP: RB11

After a breakout rookie season in 2015, Gurley fell falt in his 2016 campaign and fell down draft boards as a mid to late second rounder. All he did in 2017 was break fantasy football. In Weeks 14-16, the fantasy playoffs, he scored the most PPR points IN HISTORY over that stretch. He finished the season as the number one overall scorer and averaged 25.6 points per game. Gurley will be a shoe-in top five pick, and we've seen him go as high as number one in early mocks.

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO), ADP: RB52

Kamara was one of a handful of rookie running backs that took the NFL by storm. He started slow, but took off after the Saints traded Adrian Peterson and never looked back. From Week 7 on, with the exception of Week 14 where he left on the first drive after suffering a concussion, Kamara scored at least 15 PPR points in every game. He finished the season as RB3 behind only Gurley and Le'Veon Bell, and averaged 19 points per game. Considering he was undrafted in a majority of leagues, or at best a late round grab, Kamara truly was a league-winner this year and will certainly be going in the first round of 2018 drafts.

Kareem Hunt (RB, KC), ADP: RB10

Before the injury that ended Spencer Ware's season, Hunt was just a late round bench stash with potential upside. But after the Ware injury he shot up draft boards and eventually settled as RB10. He rewarded owners willing to take the risk with a torrid start, scoring 45 PPR points in the first game of the season and following that with back-to-back 25 point games. He had a lull in Weeks 8-13, but turned it on once again just in time for the fantasy playoffs. We'll have to wait and see what the Chiefs do with Ware, but it's hard to see Hunt not holding onto this starting job. He'll certainly be going early in fantasy drafts come August.

Chris Thompson (RB, WAS), ADP: NA

Thompson was rarely drafted, although yours truly was grabbing him late everywhere I could. He ended up having a breakout year, averaging 15.1 PPR points per game, which ranked 11th best on the season among running backs. If not for a season-ending injury Thompson may have joined Kamara as a late round league-winner. Still, his role in the Redskins offense is locked in, and with no other real threat he should once again have a productive 2018 campaign, though his value as a sleeper is now long gone.

Other Risers: Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN), ADP: RB14, Carlos Hyde (RB, SF), ADP: RB17, Mark Ingram (RB, NO), ADP: RB25, Duke Johnson (RB, CLE), ADP: RB38, Dion Lewis (RB, NE), ADP: RB58, Alex Collins (RB, BAL), ADP: NA, Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA), ADP: NA

Biggest Fallers of 2017 - Running Backs

Jay Ajayi (RB, PHI), ADP: RB7

Ajayi was coming off a big 2016 campaign and drafters expected more of the same from the former Dolphins running back. Unfortunately it never happend, as Ajayi only scored double-digit PPR points in six games and never topped 14.6 points. Even after being traded to the Eagles, things didn't get better, as he joined a full-blown RBBC--a specialty of head coach Doug Pederson. Ajayi will likely find himself being drafted in the late rounds in 2018 at best.

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE), ADP: RB15

Crowell was a sleeper pick entering the 2017 season, as the Browns newly-bolstered offensive line promised to open up more holes for the back. Unfortunately this was the same old Browns, playing from behind week after week and being mostly ineffective on offense. Crowell only had three good fantasy games, but by then owners couldn't trust him in their starting lineups. With Hue Jackson returning for another year as head coach, Crowell and the entire Browns offense will likely be one to avoid next year.

Ameer Abdullah (RB, DET), ADP: RB24

How many chances can we give Abdullah? Perhaps 2017 was finally the last straw. In 32 games with the Lions, Abdullah is averaging just 39.1 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. He even lost his starting job to satellite back Theo Riddick late in the season. Unless the Lions trade him to a much better situation, which doesn't seem likely, Abdullah will certainly be nothing more than a late round bench stash at best.

Paul Perkins (RB, NYG), ADP: RB34

Perkins, like Crowell, was another sleeper entering the 2017 season. The reasoning was someone on the Giants had to run the ball, right? Nevermind the fact that Perkins is a plodder and highly inefficient. Despite being active for 11 games, Perkins never saw more than nine carries and lost his job to both Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman. Barring any moves in the off-season, it seems likely the Giants will enter 2018 with Darkwa and Gallman as the top two on the depth chart, leaving Perkins with little to no role. Perkins is unlikely to be drafted in any redraft formats in 2018.

Other Fallers: DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN), ADP: RB8, Lamar Miller (RB, HOU), RB:18, Doug Martin (RB, TAM), RB:22, Danny Woodhead (RB, BAL), ADP: RB26, Mike Gillislee (RB, NE), ADP: RB27

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