Baker Mayfield - 2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Busts and Sell Candidates

Baker Mayfield is a dynasty fantasy football bust and sell candidate for 2025. Read the fantasy football outlook for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback.

RotoBaller Dynasty Ranking: QB14

Dynasty Analysis: Mayfield has one of the better "feel-good" and "comeback" stories in the NFL. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft was cast off by Cleveland after they traded for Deshaun Watson, and after a rough year in Carolina, he's found a home as the franchise quarterback of the Buccaneers.

He appears to have completely turned things around, and his 2024 fantasy production was fantastic. That said, a non-rushing quarterback coming off a 44-total-touchdown campaign is a screaming sell candidate. Mayfield's previous career-high for touchdowns was 29 in 2023. Relying on heavy passing volume and an unsustainable touchdown rate year-over-year is not a great process. Last season, Mayfield posted a 7.3% touchdown rate despite ranking 30th in air yards per attempt (7.0). His previous high was 5.4% in 2020.

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Baker Mayfield had a touchdown rate of 7.2% last year.

There've been 15 quarterbacks since 2011 with next-season data who were +/- 0.5% in TD rate to Mayfield's 2024 number. Every single one scored fewer fantasy points the following year. The group averaged a drop of 4.2 PPG.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) July 10, 2025

We're not here to say Mayfield is going to flame out or fall off. He can still be a good NFL quarterback, but not produce big fantasy numbers. Think back to some of Tom Brady's seasons in New England when he wasn't a high-end starter in single-QB setups.

In a weak NFC South and Tampa Bay having the 10th-easiest strength of schedule, will there be as many shootout opportunities for Mayfield? It seems unlikely.

Oh, and nobody likes to talk about it, but there will be a point in time when Father Time finally defeats Mike Evans. It might not be this year, but that's not a guy you easily replace, and Chris Godwin (ankle) could be severely limited to start the season.

The NFL is now littered with dual-threat QBs who score fantasy points in bunches on the ground. If you can acquire a quarterback in a similar range of dynasty rankings with rushing chops like Kyler Murray, pull the trigger.

- Jackson Sparks

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