Round-by-Round FFPC Best Ball Slim Breakdown: Rounds 1-6

June 14, 2021

Zachary Krueger goes inside a recent FFPC best ball slim draft and dives into how each round unfolded, explaining the strategy behind each pick along the way.

Over the last few weeks, I've put out articles outlining draft strategies for each position in the FFPC best ball slim format. If you missed any, you can check them out below:

• Trimming the Fat: FFPC Best Ball Slim Draft Strategy (QB/RB)
• Trimming the Fat: FFPC Best Ball Slim Draft Strategy (WR/TE)

Deciding that I should put my money where my mouth is, I went ahead and got into one of these FFPC best ball slim drafts, hoping to show how the drafts unfold while trying to offer some actionable insight along the way. This article is my best attempt at doing exactly that.

By the way, if you haven't heard, the first ever FFPC Best Ball Tournament is here! It's just $125 to enter with a $100,000 grand prize.  You can sign up here to get a piece of the action.

The Big Board

This was a fun draft to hop into, as a couple of notable names came along for the ride in Colm Kelly of RotoViz (@OvertimeIreland) and Chris Allen of 4For4 (@ChrisAllenFFWX).

Being assigned the third overall pick, I knew that a ZeroRB draft strategy was off the table, unless I elected to go with Travis Kelce - you will see that I did not go with Kelce (1.05).

This put me squarely in line for a Modified Zero RB build at the least, while also keeping the option open for two elite RBs out of the gate depending on how things unfolded.

Here is a full look at the board below.

Let's get into the picks.

1.03 - Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)

Selecting Dalvin Cook out of the 1.03 was a relatively simple pick. It was surprising to see Jonathan Taylor go at the 1.02, but usually, it's Cook or Saquon Barkley with the next two picks after the 1.01.

Cook has all the traits we look for in an elite running back this early in the draft. He led all running backs in opportunity share in 2020 (44%) and was third amongst all running backs in rushing opportunities (74%). In addition to his rushing line of 312/1,557/16, Cook added another 44/361/1 through the air on 54 targets.

He finished the season as the RB3 in PPR/gm (24.6), posting 10 top-12 weeks. Cook also never finished any worse than RB23 in any of the 14 games he appeared in last season.

Image courtesy of RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer

The Vikings added no competition for Cook in the backfield, meaning the majority of running back opportunities should be his once again in 2020.

2.10 - Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)

This draft began in late May, right around the time we began to widely suspect that the Falcons would indeed trade Julio Jones. Whether you like Calvin Ridley or not, his 24.0 ADP (WR6) aligns closely with his WR4 rank in PPR/gm (18.9) from 2020.

Ridley ranked seventh among WRs in total targets (143) and first in total air yards (2,052). His receiving line of 90/1,374/9 put him in elite company, as did his 25% target share (WR6).

Since this draft, Jones has been traded to the Tennessee Titans, and Ridley appears locked into another top-five PPR season.

Looking at the RotoViz Game Splits app, we can see just how well Ridley has performed in games that Jones has missed.

Image courtesy of RotoViz Game Splits app

Getting Ridley as the WR6 off the board felt like a good price for a receiver who could be on one of the most pass-heavy offenses in 2021. At the time, I would have taken A.J. Brown had he fallen to me, but I'm happy with how everything played out during and after this draft.

3.03 - Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)

The immediate draw to Justin Jefferson was the fact that I could pair him with Cook to get two key players in Minnesota's offense. Last season, teams that paired Cook and Jefferson in FFPC slims enjoyed a 40.0% win rate. Granted, this was aided by Jefferson's 13th round ADP, but we shouldn't be ignoring the rookie WR who just posted the highest scoring PPR season (274.2) for a rookie since Michael Thomas (2020), and the most receiving yards for a rookie in NFL history (1,400).

Jefferson finished the season with a receiving line of 88/1,400/7 on 125 targets but may have only scratched the surface of what we could see in 2021.

Through the first 10 games of the season, Jefferson saw five or fewer targets in seven of those games. He then went on to average 11.0 targets/gm from Week 12 and on - averaging 19.7 PPR/gm over that span.

Image courtesy of RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer

If the 2020 season was just a taste of what Jefferson is capable of, then 2021 could be the full serving. Currently going as the WR7, Jefferson, like Ridley, should be a lock for a WR1 season and is a dark horse candidate to finish as the overall WR1.

4.10 - D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)

It's hard to believe that a wide receiver who was drafted to be another weapon for Cam Newton in 2018 has since seen more targets from Kyle Allen (115) and Teddy Bridgewater (102) than he has Newton (90). But that's been exactly the case for D.J. Moore.

Newton will likely fall to fourth on this list by the conclusion of 2021 assuming incumbent Sam Darnold establishes a good rapport with Moore and utilizes him as the top-tier talent he is.

Despite what has felt like an up-and-down start to his career, Moore is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard and 200+ PPR seasons. Over his first three seasons, Moore has posted 3,156 receiving yards, good for the 10th most of any WR during the first three seasons of their career since 2000.

While we know the talent is there for more, fantasy managers are often left wanting more. Through 46 career games, Moore has posted only seven top-12 finishes (15%) and has finished as a top-24 receiver in only 41% of his career games.

Image courtesy of RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer

After carrying a 35.1 FFPC best ball slim ADP in 2020, Moore's ADP has dropped to 45.9 this season. He's a solid real-life player who we are just waiting to see click for fantasy purposes. If you believe in Moore and then talent, I'd buy the dip that we've seen this season, as I did here.

5.03 - Julio Jones (WR, TEN)

As previously mentioned, this draft occurred right around the time we suspected that Julio Jones may be done in Atlanta.

The bottom line, however, is whether Jones remained in Atlanta or not, he looked like a screaming value in the fifth round. Last season was the lowest Jones' ADP has dipped since 2017, when he was going at 19.4 overall (WR5).

Presently, Jones' ADP sits at 49.5 overall (WR18) which feels far too low for a WR who averaged 16.2 PPR/gm (WR14) in 2020 despite an injury-plagued season that forced him to miss seven games.

Image Courtesy of RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer

In addition to his solid PPR/gm, Jones also averaged 11.3 yards per target - a career-high for the 11-year veteran.

Jones joins what's been a run-heavy offense over the last two seasons, but also an efficient one. Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown look like a dynamic duo, and adding Jones to the fold should only give way to more opportunities for both receivers to succeed.

With his ADP seeing a steady rise since his trade to Tennessee, it's not too late to get in on Jones at a value, but his ADP could fall inside the top-40 by the start of the season.

Making Jones my fourth wide receiver allowed me to solidify my Modified Zero RB approach, as I now have a bonafide starting RB in Cook, and hopefully four WRs to fill the two receiver and two flex spots each week.

6.10 - Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

I mentioned in the first part of this series that the ideal range to draft your QB1 is not before Round 6. In this case, it was hard to pass on the 2020 Rookie of the Year, Justin Herbert.

Herbert enjoyed a historic rookie season in which he set the mark for most touchdowns (31) and most completions (396) by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.

After drawing an unexpected start in Week 2 against the Chiefs, Herbert took hold of the starting job and never looked back.

Image Courtesy of RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer

He finished the season averaging 25.2 PPR/gm (QB9), the most of any rookie QB since Deshaun Watson in 2017 (26.8), and even showed some rushing upside (55/234/5).

Herbert was one of my favorite picks of this draft. He provides me with an elite quarterback week in and week out and also opens the doors for cheap stacks down the line.

We will get more to the stack options in the second and third articles of this series.

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