2021 Way Too Early Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 1-3

January 12, 2021

Chris Mangano breaks down RotoBaller's early mock draft for the 2021 fantasy football season and discusses the biggest ADP surprises and values.

The 2020 fantasy football season is barely in the books but that didn’t stop me and some fellow RotoBallers from participating in a way too early 2021 mock draft. Twelve of us got together and drafted a 13-round PPR (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX) mock draft for next season.

As usual, when drafting this early, there were plenty of surprises, both good and bad. Check out the full draft board on Sleeper here.

Note: This is part 1 of 3 where I will look over the first three rounds of the draft. Part 2 will cover rounds 4-7 and part 3 will cover the final rounds.

Round 1

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1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Dalvin Cook
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Saquon Barkley
5. Davante Adams
6. Derrick Henry

The draft started exactly as I predicted in my “Who Should Be The Number One Fantasy Pick” article I wrote recently. There are only two things I could see being argued against this order. First, there are reports that Drew Brees will retire after this season which could significantly hurt Kamara’s value. How far he would drop is anyone’s guess, but he could certainly fall outside the top-six. Second, the order of Barkley, Adams, and Henry can really be debated and is likely a matter of preference. But other than that, the top-six seems pretty set heading into 2021.

7. Nick Chubb
8. Ezekiel Elliott
9. Josh Jacobs
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Austin Ekeler
12. D’Andre Swift

The back half of the first round was nothing but running backs. In fact, 11 of the first 12 picks were all running backs. Despite a down year from highly-drafted running backs in 2020, drafters still understand the importance of getting a stud back to anchor their fantasy team and they were flying off the board early.

Ezekiel Elliott could be the steal of the first round as he averaged 24.4 expected fantasy points per game with Dak Prescott as opposed to 16.3 without. If his usage over the last two games was any indication, it seems as though fears about Tony Pollard taking his job were overblown.

Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor appears to have locked up the Colts' running back job, but what the team decides to do with Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins will have a big impact on his draft stock heading into 2021. If we get through free agency and the draft without the Colts making any major moves at the position, we could see him climb up draft boards.

The two surprising picks to me of the first round were Josh Jacobs and D’Andre Swift. Jacobs was a consensus second-rounder last year and didn’t live up to those expectations in 2020. In his first two years in the league, he has averaged just 14.7 PPR points per game and has lacked that massive ceiling that we expect from first rounders. It’s hard to see that changing in 2021.

As for Swift, his value is entirely tied to the Lions' willingness to use him. He is a good player, but he was never able to fully break away from an aging Adrian Peterson which is certainly not what you want to see from a first-round pick. What the Lions do in the offseason will have a major impact on his draft capital in 2021.

Round 2

1. Travis Kelce
2. Tyreek Hill
3. James Robinson
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Antonio Gibson
6. Miles Sanders
7. DK Metcalf
8. Stefon Diggs
9. Aaron Jones
10. Michael Thomas
11. J.K. Dobbins
12. Chris Godwin

Running backs continue to fly off the board in the second round, but we did see our first tight end drafted with Travis Kelce going at 13th overall. It wouldn’t even surprise me if he went in the first round of many 2021 drafts. He finished 2020 second in the NFL in receiving yards among all players with 1,416 yards and was fifth with 105 receptions. That's not just dominance at his position, it's a dominant fantasy player.

Like the first six picks, you could probably argue the order of Hopkins, Metcalf, and Diggs, but they all seem like a lock for the next three receivers off the board. It’s surprising to see Aaron Jones and Michael Thomas fall this far, but there is uncertainty as to where Jones will be playing in 2021, and Thomas was inconsistent at best in 2020. Still, both possess massive upside at this point in the draft and could be great values.

Chris Godwin as the sixth wide receiver off the board was also a little surprising. If you take out Week 17 when Mike Evans left early, his expected fantasy points per game in 2020 was only 12.2, which ranked 38th among receivers. Of course, he missed four games and was battling a finger injury all year so he could bounce back to his form from 2019 but the risk this early in the draft seems unnecessary given the other receivers still available.

Round 3

1. Joe Mixon
2. George Kittle
3. Calvin Ridley
4. Keenan Allen
5. Darren Waller
6. Justin Jefferson
7. A.J. Brown
8. Julio Jones
9. David Montgomery
10. Patrick Mahomes
11. Diontae Johnson
12. Cam Akers

This round saw two more tight ends come off the board and our first quarterback. There is an obvious big three-tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller, and players who play in leagues that start a tight end will need to make a tough decision about grabbing one of them in the first three rounds or hoping to hit on a later pick. 

There are also some surprises in this round who could pay off big time for fantasy drafters. Despite a disappointing 2020, Joe Mixon still dominated the touches in Cincinnati and his 19.2 expected points per game were tied with Austin Ekeler for fifth among running backs. He could have a massive upside in 2021 and seems like a true value in the third round of drafts.

Some very nice receiver value to be had in this round as well, as Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown are weekly top-10 options at the position. If you are starting your draft RB heavy, landing one of these receivers as your WR1 should have you feeling very good.

This round isn’t without its question marks, however. While he finished the season at an incredible pace, David Montgomery benefited from a very soft schedule down the stretch and an injury to Tarik Cohen. Montgomery’s expected fantasy points per game with a healthy Cohen was just 12.7 compared to 19.2 in the games Cohen missed. What role he’ll have in 2021 remains to be seen and his draft stock could change for the better or the worse as the offseason rolls on.

Question marks also surround Julio Jones as he battled injuries all year and had his least productive season since 2013. He’ll be 32 in February and you have to wonder what he has left at this point. Granted, we know the upside he has when he is healthy, but we have to wonder if his best days are behind him.

So there it is, the first three rounds of our way too early 2021 mock draft. Who are some players that you think are being drafted too highly? Who are some that aren’t being drafted high enough? And don’t miss part 2 and part 3 when I cover the rest of the draft. Good luck in 2021!

Special thanks to Hayden Winks for his work on expected fantasy points and making it readily available!

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