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Chris Mangano determines which players to target as the #1 overall pick in 2021 fantasy football drafts.
The 2020 fantasy football season may be over, but it’s never too early to look ahead. The draft season for 2021 will be here before you know it, and one of the biggest questions will be who should be the number one pick?
Here are my top-five choices (in order) and why they should or should not be the number one overall pick.
Note: I originally published this early in the offseason. Now that we are closer to fantasy drafts, let's see what has changed and if there is a new number 1...
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5. Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams was unquestionably the best wide receiver in football, both real life and fantasy. If not for missing two games, he realistically could have been the number one overall scorer. Adams finished with 109 receptions (third), 1,328 yards (fourth), and 17 touchdowns (first). Had he not missed two games, he likely would have finished first in each category. In terms of fantasy football (PPR scoring), he finished number two overall and was only 36 points away from number one overall, Alvin Kamara.
With Aaron Rodgers back for at least one more season, Adams has a legitimate case for the number one overall pick. But outside of leagues that strongly favor wide receivers, it is hard to put him ahead of the stud running backs. Still, he should absolutely be the first wide receiver off the board in 2021 fantasy football drafts.
4. Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Outside of Alvin Kamara (more on him later) and Davante Adams, Kelce was the unquestioned MVP of most fantasy leagues. He dominated a position that had few start-able options week to week, let alone dominant options. Kelce outscored TE2, Darren Waller, by a massive 60.9 fantasy points in 2020. He scored 20 or more fantasy points in 10 games, and when it mattered most he dominated with games of 27.6, 22.8 and 22.8 in the fantasy playoffs.
In shallow leagues (10 or 12 team leagues with relatively few starters) you can make the case that he gives you the biggest advantage of any player at any position. However, in deeper formats (12+ leagues with more starting options) it becomes tougher to draft Kelce and still field a dominant roster. Regardless, Kelce has to be considered a first rounder in all formats and is head and shoulders above the other tight ends but taking him number one overall seems like a stretch.
3. Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Alvin Kamara literally won people their fantasy championship in 2020. He was the number one non-quarterback scorer, and only Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes scored more points than him. He played every game, and oh, he literally won people's fantasy titles with his incredible six-touchdown performance in Week 16. So why isn’t he number one? Simply put, we don’t know who will be the Saints quarterback in 2021.
Despite him setting career highs in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in Week 16, Kamara’s value comes from his work in the passing game. We saw what happened when Taysom Hill replaced Drew Brees; Kamara was solid, but he certainly wasn’t worthy of the number one overall pick in those games. With Drew Brees officially retired, and the Saints quarterback situation looking like it will come down to the wire, it's hard to take Kamara number one overall. Still, he is firmly in the top-3, just don't expect a repeat of 2020.
2. Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
When drafting a top fantasy football pick, you really want two things: to avoid a season-ending injury and to avoid a bust. While Cook has had injury concerns in the past (which running back outside of Kamara hasn’t?), you know exactly what you are getting with him every week. The Vikings under head coach Mike Zimmer are a run-first team, as they ran the ball at the sixth-highest rate in 2020 and the fourth highest in 2019.
Cook had 312 carries in 2020 (second), 1,557 rushing yards (second), and 16 rushing touchdowns (first). He also chipped in 44 receptions and another 361 receiving yards. He did all that in just 15 games. That kind of usage gives him one of the safest floors and highest ceilings in all of fantasy. He would easily be my overall number one if not for…
1. Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
Don’t let his injury-plagued 2020 scare you off of him. In the three healthy games McCaffrey played this year, he handled over 90% of the running back touches for Carolina. He is a true workhorse back in the NFL. In PPR formats, he scored 28.5, 24.8, and 37.1 points in those three games, averaging over 30 points per game. He averaged just under 20 carries per game and over six receptions per game. Not to mention he scored six touchdowns.
He has the highest floor and the highest ceiling in all of fantasy football. Prior to 2020, he had also been one of the most durable players, having never missed a game in his three-year career or throughout his entire college career. Don’t let one season of bad injury luck prevent you from drafting unquestionably the best player in fantasy football. McCaffrey should be the number one pick in every draft next year.
So there you have it, my top-five and number one overall picks for 2021 fantasy football drafts. Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments.
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