NFL Betting Picks For Week 17 (1/3/2021) - Moneylines, Totals, and Spreads

January 2, 2021

Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 17 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.

I missed out on getting any Week 16 plays out. No pity parties on my end, just too many other real-life issues getting in the way over the past few weeks that took priority. Things have slowed down on that front, so I figured I might as well try and close off the regular season on the right note. I wish everyone a much better and happier 2021!

• Week 15: 1-1 (50%, -.15u)
• 2020 Season: 17-20-1 (45%, -3.53u)

(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, -152) at Denver Broncos

O/U: 51

Derek Carr and company have been lighting it up over the last month, averaging 27.5 points per game and 432 yards per game in December. Naturally their defense has crapped the bed, leading them to just a 1-3 record over than span but the offense can carry their weight. However, they do have problems closing out drives as they average two field goals made per game, third highest in the NFL. As previously mentioned, this defense is syphoning points of late, allowing 33 ppg. They've allowed 24 ppg or more in all but two games this year.

Now that we're at the end of the season, this is definitely a team that didn't live up to whatever hype they may have had rolling into the season. Between quarterback issues/terrible play and losing their star receiver, this offense hasn't had much, if anything, to hold their hat on. Drew Lock has averaged just 215 passing ypg over the L3 and it doesn't help with their slow starts; they average just 8 ppg in the first half in that same stretch. Defensively, they've been terrible all season and there's an odd consistency to it; last week was the first time they've allowed less than 20 points since Week 11.

Vegas had their way with Denver the first time out, winning 37-12. I do trust the full game number, but with Las Vegas having back-to-back late game losses in a row, I'll stick with the Raiders taking advantage of the Broncos' first-half woes.

Pick: Las Vegas 1H -1 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, -286)

O/U: 50.5

Midway through the season, following Dan Quinn's dismissal, the Falcons went through a stretch where they made some noise and rattled off their four wins they currently have. Things have dwindled from that spark, especially offensively. Averaging just 19 ppg and 351 ypg over the L3, the Falcons have dropped five their last six. Matt Ryan has just one game with 280+ passing yards since Week 8, which might have something to do with Julio Jones missing four of the last five games and is set to miss again in Week 17. The run game has also completely vanished. Their 90 yards on the ground last week were the most since the 125 yard game in Week 12. Their defensive unit has allowed 30 points just once since Raheem Morris took over as interim head coach, and that was two week ago against these same Bucs. They have the sixth ranked run defense by DVOA and have 10 turnovers in their L5 games.

The Bucs secured their first playoff berth since 2007 with last week's drubbing of Detroit. Tom Brady wins wherever he goes. Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 in every game since Week 10 and the offense, especially the passing game has been great. Mike Evans is fresh off a two-touchdown game and Ronald Jones (finger) has been a full practice participant this week after missing the last two games. The defense is a Top 5 unit and house arguably the best rush defense in the league. This team is starting to click at the right time.

When the Falcons are healthy, they have some incredible weapons on offense but they're not and this team isn't the same without Julio Jones. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has their playoff spot locked up and will likely be going through maintenance work to prepare for the Wild Card playoff round. Don't expect them to pull out all of their cards here.

Pick: Under 50 (-106, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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